Kenshin and McIntosh discuss a key bullish signal from Coinbase where institutional trading volumes have reached 75% of total activity. According to research from Charles Edwards at Caprio Investments, this metric has historically predicted Bitcoin price increases within seven days every time it occurs. The pattern previously triggered significant price movements.
Institutions are currently buying approximately 600% more Bitcoin than the daily mining production, creating massive supply pressure. Companies like MicroStrategy continue their regular Bitcoin purchases, while new Bitcoin treasury companies are emerging globally. The hosts believe this institutional demand, combined with ETF inflows and the upcoming retail FOMO phase, sets up a perfect storm for Bitcoin's next major price movement.
Stick around to the very end for the v4v track, “Horizons of Hope” by Jawbone
Resources
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-institutional-volume-hits-75-on-coinbase-new-btc-price-signal
https://suno.com/song/5f206135-34eb-43d7-8dd5-267c5922f8d8?sh=mh5UAtRicEIFLvOt
Bitcoin Price at Time of Recording
Aug 13th, 2025: 121,781 USD | 104,400 EUR
Block Height at Time of Recording
909,881
Episode Page
https://satoshis-plebs.com/episode-222
Music Credits
Jawbone
Horizons of Hope
Website
https://satoshis-plebs.com
Podcasting 2.0 Apps available at http://podcastapps.com and Value4Value information page available here: https://value4value.info
McIntosh can be reached by email at [email protected] and on Twitter at @McIntoshFinTech. His mastodon handle is @[email protected] and his Nostr. Kenshin can be reached on Twitter at @kenshin_ninja or on Nostr. Kenshin’s email is [email protected]. You can also follow the Satoshi’s Plebs podcast account on Nostr. We are looking forward to hearing from you!
We are looking forward to hearing from you!
[00:00:00]
McIntosh:
Welcome back to Satoshi's Plebs for episode 222. I'm McIntosh.
[00:00:06] Kenshin:
And I am Kenshin. And today, we're diving into institutional Bitcoin adoption hitting overdrive. Specifically a key metric on Coinbase that just flushed a major bullish signal.
[00:00:18] McIntosh:
We're talking about institutional trading volumes hitting 75% on Coinbase. And historically, every time this has happened, Bitcoin's price has risen within seven days, plus institutions are buying 600% more Bitcoin than is even being mined daily.
[00:00:37] Kenshin:
Yes. And we'll break down who these institutions are, what's driving this surge, and, see all the signals that are making this the perfect storm for Bitcoin. Let's dive in.
[00:00:51] McIntosh:
Awesome. Alright. We're at a block height of 909,881. Wow. We're about to hit a million blocks, aren't we? How many weeks is that? No. It's I mean, it's a thou is it thousand blocks a week roughly? I guess we sorry. We still have over a year left. Never mind. What's up with you, Kenshin? Macintosh does math. Live on the air, it's bad. Yeah.
[00:01:26] Kenshin:
It's good. It's well, good. It's, it's back on the hamster wheel in the, yeah, in the Fiat world. So it's, it's tricky to get used to it, wake up in the morning, go to work, all the rest of it. Looking ahead, it's a couple of business trips. So, yeah, a bit stressed, but, yeah, should
[00:01:52] McIntosh:
should be okay. You know, when you came on, I did not realize you were the global traveler that you are. It's part of your job in essence, but, yeah, it's kinda cool. I get to live vicariously through you. I was trying to remember last night at dinner. We were talking. It's been a long time since I've been anywhere. And in fact, I think the last time I went somewhere was a conference, and it's been several years ago. Anyways, I guess I'm jealous. Sorry.
[00:02:28] Kenshin:
I'm cut I'm coming to your side of the pond. Yeah. Well, you're a few hours away.
[00:02:34] McIntosh:
More than a few hours away, but, yeah, you're getting over here. So, you can have some, let's see. So if you're in Philly, you should have the Philly cheesesteak. Have you had that?
[00:02:50] Kenshin:
No. I don't know what that is.
[00:02:53] McIntosh:
That's good stuff. Well, anyways alright. And a couple of things I wanted to mention. Well, we I think we've done an entire episode about scams, but I almost got scammed this week. And I did kinda wanna mention that because I always like to point these things out. We had somebody on our local Bitcoin meetup website, which you can just register. There's no vetting process, whatever. Post a message saying they wanted to donate a Macintosh, AirBook, laptop to somebody who would be using it for Bitcoin purposes and blah blah blah. You know? Of course, they made it sound good. And, initially, I just kinda blew it off. I'm like, I don't need that. I mean, I I have a Mac Air.
Actually, that's literally what I'm using as we record, but it's my personal one. And I have all my stuff on it and all that kind of stuff. And you and I, we've kind of been talking. We really I I personally we need dedicated recording, you know, computers. It just makes it easier. It makes it, like, if we change things, then sometimes we have problems, getting recordings going and all that kind of stuff. And I'm like, well, you know, actually, that that would work well for that. I sent the person a message. I said, hey.
You know, I'm I'm interested. I explained the podcast. I said, I'd love to use it for that. And, you know, we could just we could just meet at the next meetup. My thinking that they were someone who was involved in our local meetup. And they came back to me and said, well, I I can meet with you. That'd be great. Where do you wanna meet? And I'm like, well, whatever in our local area. And I told him that. Just trying to be helpful. And he's like, well, I live in somewhere in Texas, and that set off alarm bells for me.
It clearly was not someone who was in our local meetup. It was clearly somebody who had just created an account, sent that message out, and I don't know what their deal was. I've never I've basically, I dropped it at that point. I don't know. But I've been around long enough to know that was a scam. Right? Right. Yeah. There's no reason that they could not have given that away to somebody locally. So what they did was they made a bunch of accounts on meetup.com and sent it out to all or they joined all of the meetups, the Bitcoin meetups, and just kinda group send it out or whatever. So that was kind of interesting.
[00:05:53] Kenshin:
Yeah. But it was not so elaborate, to have, like, a a malware inside the laptop that steals your seed phrase.
[00:06:03] McIntosh:
Well, that might have been and, actually, my wife and I discussed that very thing. Like, now if that would have been the angle, then, funny enough, if I would have gotten a laptop, the first thing I would have done was thrown, Linux on it. Yeah. So that would have defeated that. But I I don't think that's what it was. I I'm not sure. It doesn't matter. Unfortunately, that did not work out. I did try and actually we had an old computer laying around the house. I was telling you this right before we started. And, so this thing, like, nobody else can use it. I'm like, hey. I'll throw Linux on it. Maybe we can use that for our it's it is literally so old. The modern Ubuntu with KDE and the recording tools cannot load on it. It just fails.
[00:06:57] Kenshin:
So Mhmm. Yay. There is a special distribution for Mac. Right?
[00:07:06] McIntosh:
Asante. I always get it wrong. But if you spell it Asante. Something like that. I'll look it up real quick. Yeah. They've been yeah. It is Asahi. They have been tracking, for a while, and they're getting a lot of good changes into the kernel and this type thing. I probably would have put this on there because it it probably would have given me a better experience than trying to run, you know, whatever the latest whatever is to to install on there. Yep. There's, yeah. Anyways, one day. One day. We we need to do something, though. I got a few things I'm a probably try and sell, scrape together some money to to get something.
And then I also need to get a I really need to get a soundboard, to be honest, so we can do some interactive things, like play music or, sound effects or whatever. Right? Alright. Enough about that. Excuse me. Yeah. The tea is not hot enough today anyways. We got some supporters this week. We did. Thank you. Yeah. We sure did. I'll go ahead and grab the first one, and then you can grab the second one. So our friend, Send It Mike, sent in a thousand and 69 sats, and he says, I'm catching up from having been on vacation myself. I'm getting jealous. You guys are all on these vacations.
Anyways, enjoyed the interview last week. Hopefully, I'll have I'll have to I'll have time to check out bitcoin-safe.org. I would highly recommend that whether it's maybe not for now, but maybe for the longer term. The music this week was dot dot dot dot interesting. That's what I say all the time. It reminded me of a song I made with AI. I was not expecting this. It reminded me of a song I made with AI that I really like, and he gave a link to it. I will post it in the show notes. Mhmm. So we will have to take a listen to that. I've not had a chance to listen to it. We did switch the music up this week. It will be Jawbone, with a song title, which I don't have on the tip of my head, but, tip of my tongue. But we've played Jawbone before, and, I actually think this song might even be better than the first one we played. So, anyways It doesn't have a weird name that I cannot pronounce. Right? Well, Jawbone is kinda weird. No. The oh, no. Not this song title.
[00:09:54] Kenshin:
Okay. Good.
[00:09:56] McIntosh:
Troubadour. Elect Troubadour. I yeah. Dude's gotta work on that. Anyways Alright.
[00:10:05] Kenshin:
Then we got from Aldum at Fountain, 200 and SaaS, and they say, I'm listening, but if you don't bring up slightly wrong Austrian economics trivia, I won't be compelled to comment.
[00:10:21] McIntosh:
Right. That was funny. Hey. I would say this. I know a lot of our listeners, you know, they don't actively interact or whatever. Maybe they don't feel like they have anything to say or comment or whatever, which is fine. I certainly have no problem with that. But you do have the opportunity to stream to support the show if you want, and that doesn't require anything except configuring your podcasting two point o player to do so. Mhmm. And you can set the level of streaming, and it can be, you know, one set a minute, which for our normal hour episode, you're looking at 60 sets.
[00:11:05] Kenshin:
I don't think you can do that on fountain. They have a minimum. Anymore?
[00:11:09] McIntosh:
They they actually used to. They have a minimum, I mean, limit. Okay. I think it's, like, 10 sets a minute. It may be. So Yeah. That's more that 600 and maybe you don't wanna do that. I get it. But that type thing does support this show and, you know, helps us to get some of these things that we need.
[00:11:34] Kenshin:
Right. So today's topic, we are talking about institutions going all in on Bitcoin and, the 75% signal. So there is a story, an article about a metric that when, the daily outflows or Mhmm. I guess inflows, The daily spending on Coinbase exceeds or hits this 75% from institution institutions, then that signals, a big price increase coming up, within a week.
[00:12:17] McIntosh:
So they're talking about 75% of the total buying volume on Coinbase is coming from businesses. Right?
[00:12:26] Kenshin:
Yes. Exactly. And I thought it was interesting because it's it's an easy metric to follow, and it seems that it's been doing that in the past. And it's also interesting because institutions have been popping up more and more in the news. They have? Buying a lot of Bitcoin, have their, Bitcoin reserves in in their companies. So, yeah, we'll get into that a bit now. Okay.
[00:12:59] McIntosh:
Let's do it.
[00:13:00] Kenshin:
Yeah. So it's actually the name is, Charles Edwards from Caprio Investments who has supported this pattern of the 75%. And as we said, is the every time the institutional volume in a day exceeds 75% on Coinbase, then the price rises a lot within a week. And this happened to was it today, actually, that came out? I'm not exactly sure,
[00:13:35] McIntosh:
to be honest. Six hours ago. So there you go. By the way, we are at remember what I said? We're at block height. What was it? 909,881. So you can look up when this we're actually talking about this. As we talk, we've not gotten to the Bitcoin price. It is pumping, and we'll get to that when we get to so it is interesting. We will see what happens with the price, but they may have put this out this article just in time, so to speak.
[00:14:09] Kenshin:
Mhmm. And I can see also here, they have a a chart in in that article, in the beginning of the year, '24, '25.
[00:14:20] McIntosh:
Mhmm.
[00:14:21] Kenshin:
The institutions had even more, spending, in Coinbase, more than 75% as I understand. And that that's also spiked a lot of the price. So the price spiked from 70,000 up to 100.
[00:14:41] McIntosh:
Right. We all remember that. Right? Yeah. I do. Yes. I cried the whole time. I'm like
[00:14:53] Kenshin:
Happy tears. No. No.
[00:14:56] McIntosh:
It may never get back down to 70 again. Yeah. I don't know. We'll see. Yeah.
[00:15:04] Kenshin:
Yeah. But, yeah, why does this matter? And how why does that happen? It is because the institutions, of course, they trade with very, very large volumes, and they have a large capital basis.
[00:15:20] McIntosh:
They do seem to be increasing the amount. I mean, historically, MSCR or strategy has made fairly long large Bitcoin purchases, but we are starting to see more and more that these institutions are not just buying a few coins. At least that's kind of I guess that's my opinion.
[00:15:43] Kenshin:
Sorry. Yeah. That's yeah. Exactly. That's right. And you see that with strategy? They I think they buy every Monday or something like that.
[00:15:49] McIntosh:
Yeah. I don't think it correlates every Monday, but maybe. It does seem like he's posting that chart an awful lot. Yeah.
[00:16:02] Kenshin:
And, now we see other companies popping up out of nowhere Mhmm. Like, Jack Mallers' new company, the twenty one Capital. Today, I actually saw by accident another company called Nakamoto. They're also just their only purpose is just to hold Bitcoin. Right. So it's companies popping up here and there that spend hundreds of millions, if not billions. And the only thing they offer is a reserve. Yeah. And talking again, what why is that important? And we see that we said, of course, those are big companies. They do big volumes. On Tuesday, yesterday, it said that they bought 810 Bitcoin.
And on Monday, actually, they bought, 3,000 Bitcoin. And to put that into perspective, of course, we only get 450 Bitcoin mined per day.
[00:17:10] McIntosh:
Right.
[00:17:11] Kenshin:
So where did I see that number? In in, some days, we were 600% buying more Bitcoin that that's been mined.
[00:17:21] McIntosh:
Of the 450. Right? Is that what you're yeah. Yeah. So in other words, a 100% would be 450. So 450 times six, whatever that amount is. Right? Yeah. That's a huge amount of Bitcoin, and I don't wanna tie it down to any specific, oh, when we exceed the 450, then this is gonna happen, at this time, this price or whatever. But I do know that if we continue to buy more Bitcoin than are being mined, ultimately, the price has to go up. Mhmm. It's that simple. Right? Because clearly there is a demand for the product that's being pulled out of the I was gonna say pulled out of the ground. That's funny. Yeah.
That's being mined. If only someone was smart enough to come up with a better name than mining. Anyways
[00:18:18] Kenshin:
It it it wouldn't sound so good. There there was some changes. You're right.
[00:18:24] McIntosh:
It is yeah. It's interesting. Alright. So right. So there we go.
[00:18:31] Kenshin:
Mhmm. And then another interesting because we're talking about Coinbase now, statistics. Right? Mhmm. And someone would ask and I would ask, why Coinbase? Why why does it matter? 75% of of Bitcoin volume,
[00:18:47] McIntosh:
on Coinbase. That's a good question.
[00:18:49] Kenshin:
Yeah. And the answer is because companies prefer to buy from Coinbase because they get those pro accounts. They comply with regulations and insurances. They have some institutional grade custody solutions, whatever those are. They say they do. Yeah. Anyways. And Yes. That is correct. Of course they do. Some yeah.
[00:19:16] McIntosh:
Special fees. Been around for a long time. Yeah. They get good
[00:19:21] Kenshin:
yeah. And And they get low fees and and large trades and stuff. So that's why it matters in that sense. So in US, it's it's a big deal. Most of them go from through Coinbase.
[00:19:34] McIntosh:
I would be interested if it would be possible to figure this out. Like, what percentage in The US of companies that use Coinbase versus Kraken? Because I would think Kraken would be the other place. I I get that Coinbase is bigger. I just don't know how much bigger, and I'm kinda curious because Kraken's gonna offer those same kinds of services. They've not been around as long. But I would point out, they also do not have the history that Coinbase does because Coinbase frankly has dropped the ball a few times.
[00:20:13] Kenshin:
Yeah. And with all these altcoins, especially.
[00:20:17] McIntosh:
Yeah. Well, they do they do it in ways that Kraken does not, but Kraken promotes the same old coins. Let's be honest.
[00:20:25] Kenshin:
Alright.
[00:20:26] McIntosh:
So it's not a Bitcoin only versus, you know, crypto. It's who provides the best service, and I've used both of them. I I would argue very easily, I think, that it's cracking. I mean, Coinbase can't even stay up when it starts getting busy. That's how we know we're in a bull run. Right. I mean, seriously. Right? Their website just shuts down, which is, you know, awesome when you're trying to place that order, that trade, that kind of thing. That was why I got off of them personally. But anyways but, yeah, I mean, they're the number one. They are.
[00:21:08] Kenshin:
Yeah. So yeah. So all this to say that, yeah, there is a lot of pressure on, Bitcoin supply right now, which is natural. Of course, we would never run out of Bitcoin because everybody has a price, obviously. But that just means that the price naturally needs to go up, and that's what the statistics show.
[00:21:33] McIntosh:
$10,000,000 of Bitcoin. You can have every Bitcoin that I've got. Really? You will exchange it for fiat? Yeah. Because I'll turn around and buy all the Bitcoin I can with it. But yes.
[00:21:47] Kenshin:
Yeah. Yes. We don't have much more. Of course, this can be connected also with CPI data, things like that. But
[00:22:03] McIntosh:
Well, I actually think that that's interesting because you got some notes in here about a couple of things, and I I wanna talk about this. Okay. You this researcher feels like the economy is getting better is kinda what it sounds like to me. I don't know that that what he said actually as US inflation cools and markets see lower interest rates next month. Now I don't think inflation has cooled, but I'm just the grumpy old man on the front porch. It is starting to look like we will see lower interest rates, so that probably will kick off an investment boom if you wanna call it that.
And he also talks about risk, risk assets, the demand for those. I'm not sure Bitcoin has not moved out of that category. We do not see the correlation between the stock market and Bitcoin that we have in the past. I think that Bitcoin is starting to operate in kind of the inverse of the economy. I don't know. Maybe I'm grasping at that, but I don't consider it to be a risk a risky asset, whatever they call it, risk on or I can't whatever. Like, it's a speculation. Now maybe I'm wrong. I'd I'm open for that being the case. But
[00:23:35] Kenshin:
I mean, with all of those institutions buying with the ETFs buying, it feels like there is so much pressure.
[00:23:44] McIntosh:
Do you know what prior to the Bitcoin ETFs, what the fastest ETF in history was? I think it was a gold. It was. It was gold, and gold certainly not a risk asset. Just another piece of evidence, if you wanna call it that, that bit Bitcoin is not a risk. If it were something risky, I don't think people would be dumping all that money into it. That's just I don't know. That's just me.
[00:24:14] Kenshin:
And now you can put legally your four zero one case in US?
[00:24:19] McIntosh:
Yes. I'm looking forward to that.
[00:24:22] Kenshin:
So that's it's gonna be significant, I guess, also. Adds up to that pressure.
[00:24:28] McIntosh:
Some people think that this is part of Trump's plan to deleverage the dollar and so on and so forth. I there may be some that may be true. That may be true.
[00:24:42] Kenshin:
Yep. Yeah. And then we talked a bit about, about it of air. We said, what happens when retail starts to fomole in when the prices go up? Yes. So that's, I guess, the next stage. So
[00:24:58] McIntosh:
right now, we've got ETF steadily stacking, I believe, on average, more than 450 Bitcoin a day. The last figures I saw that was certainly the case. On top of that, you now have treasuries like MicroStrategy who are out there buying large sums of Bitcoin on a regular cadence. It's not every day, but MicroStrategy is almost weekly, if not weekly. And other companies are buying as they can raise the capital. And then on top of that, you've got companies like, just regular companies who are buying Bitcoin. That is what has gotten us to a 120, maybe even higher. It's starting to look like we're gonna press through kind of this one twenty level. We need to do it by the August, please. Thank you. So I can win the bet.
But my point is you wait until retail kicks in because at some point, retail is gonna kick in. They're gonna FOMO in. And when they do, when the Coinbase app gets to be number one on the Amazon or not Amazon, the iOS, App Store, then then we're off to the races. So maybe alright. I don't wanna theorize, but maybe we're at a 150 by the September or so, and and that's based on institutional buying. What happens at that point when retail jumps in? I don't know, but it's not gonna go down.
[00:26:40] Kenshin:
Yeah. So FOMO is strong.
[00:26:43] McIntosh:
FOMO is real. Look. That guy almost got me in that scam because FOMO. Because I was like, oh, laptop. Oh, laptop. Wait. I can.
[00:26:58] Kenshin:
It's it's the opportunity of a lifetime.
[00:27:01] McIntosh:
Right. Exactly. So, yeah, I I think I do think in some ways the economy is setting up to help all this out. I Trump is going to get the lower interest rates that he wants. I do believe that that will help the Wall Street in general. I was gonna say the economy, and it will help people hopefully in the long run, with, like, home loans and that kind of thing, but it will help Wall Street. It will help the government, and it will help Bitcoin.
[00:27:42] Kenshin:
Yeah. So closing thoughts on this topic. Yeah. I I think there is something to it. I like those statistics in general and, yeah, When institutions are buying, yeah, it makes sense that, price goes up. Simple as that. And the institutions are I I'm sorry. Yeah. I didn't want to mention that. In Sweden, I even saw a company come out of nowhere and say, oh, we will stack Bitcoin in a reserve. And then they said something about something about the health sector, improving the health sector somehow. Mhmm. But their their white paper was terrible, like, one page long, basically, and saying nothing really about a product or a service, but very specific about buying Bitcoin.
So you see all those companies that they just want to buy Bitcoin now. The
[00:28:43] McIntosh:
I think it's fascinating. Not well, I think it's fascinating how many companies are, they're not profitable. They're barely profitable. They're I I one of the terms that's used a lot is zombie companies. They're just kinda there. And Like micro strategy used to be. Like MicroStrategy used to be. Yeah. I believe a lot of those will jump on Bitcoin, which will certainly help them in the short term. You know, long term, you still have to have a product. You still have to do something useful. But I believe and I'm it is becoming stronger day by day, really.
I believe that our stock market, the companies that are listed there, by and large are a they're a picture of Fiat, essentially, and there's a lot of really bad financial stuff going on there. Do you realize I don't know if you've ever heard this. She got the Mag seven. Right? These magnificent seven or whatever these top companies. If you take them out of the stock market, it's a joke. Like, the stock market is not growing. It's those companies. So these darling companies who I would argue are priced well beyond what they're worth because of hype, because of the latest thing.
[00:30:14] Kenshin:
Yeah. That's interesting because I heard that, and it's it's I think it's very true that they are priced based on future promise, not on current performance. You're correct. But there's no guarantee No. That OpenAI
[00:30:30] McIntosh:
or any of these companies will be around ten years from now. No. Exactly. But, you know, if you take them out, the stock market is a joke. But what do we do? What do we tell people? You invest in the stock market. You get an index fund. Right? So what you end up doing is you get three to 5% growth on an annual basis. And what is that? It's inflation. So, yay, you're keeping up with inflation, but this is what we teach kids to do. It's frustrating because the further I come out of that system, the more I see that. And I'm like, I want to tell them, stop, put your money in Bitcoin, do you know, see what's going on.
But the reality is most people, the vast majority of people who haven't done the research, mind you, and I I get that, but they haven't. They view Bitcoin as being risky. And so they won't do that. Even though when you're 20 years old, that's when you should be doing the risk, not when you're in your sixties. Right? Anyways, what else do we got, sir?
[00:31:57] Kenshin:
That's for the main topic. Some, resources. The name of that person was Charles Edwards again from Caprio Investments.
[00:32:06] McIntosh:
And we'll certainly have a link to that article in the show notes as well.
[00:32:11] Kenshin:
Yes. It was an art it has some interesting charts also. That article is from CoinTelegraph.
[00:32:16] McIntosh:
So it's from today once Which occasionally they have good articles.
[00:32:23] Kenshin:
Yeah.
[00:32:25] McIntosh:
You gotta wade through some stuff to get there. But yeah. So so what's your say here's what I hear you saying. Am I correct? Next week, we're going to a 130.
[00:32:38] Kenshin:
Yeah. Possibly.
[00:32:40] McIntosh:
Does that mean I win the bet? I don't remember. We need to go back over the transcript because I don't remember the details. No. No. No. I think the bet was a you were saying 150, and I was saying micro sold value. I did. I said a 150. I do remember that, but I don't remember by when. Was it the end of this month? Or
[00:33:01] Kenshin:
Yeah. I think so.
[00:33:02] McIntosh:
Okay.
[00:33:03] Kenshin:
And I told you not in not too much summer.
[00:33:06] McIntosh:
Coming up. What do we got? Seven, fourteen, like, seventeen more days.
[00:33:16] Kenshin:
Yeah. It's It's not gonna happen. But it's gonna we are gonna have You did not just say that.
[00:33:24] McIntosh:
Okay. Here's the thing. Here's my thesis. Right? If we get past and I think I've said this, but if we get past a 120, a 122 kind of this area that we're not stuck in, but, you know, we keep kinda hitting them. If we get through that, one fifty is the next stop, and it will only take a few days. So if we get through that, that's only 30,000 from here. Kenshin, you know we've already had multiple days in this cycle where it's been almost $10,000
[00:33:58] Kenshin:
a day. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I'm just getting stuck on the the time frame of the summer.
[00:34:04] McIntosh:
September, October, we will do it. Yeah. I know you think that. I'm not completely out in left field here, though. It is still possible. Next week, I may be giving up hope, but for right now
[00:34:17] Kenshin:
Okay, Mark. Micah Sean. There's your question of the week. Who is right?
[00:34:24] McIntosh:
There you go. Question of the week. Is Macintosh a moron or is Kenshin right? Or wait. That's the same thing. Yeah. Well, that sounds like a good question, though. Hey. I am an optimist. That's part that's probably why I did not, succeed long term trading. I'm an optimist about Bitcoin. No doubt. And you know what? In the end, ladies and gentlemen, you can let you can this is the important thing. It doesn't matter if we reach a 150,000 by the August. It doesn't. Bitcoin will continue to grow as adoption takes place, as companies continue to buy, as retail investors become more interested, etcetera.
It does not matter if it's at the August, the September, the end of the year, the end of next year, five years from now. What matters is what are you doing? Are you DCA? That's what we talk about here on the Stojshweb podcast. Right? You do your daily DCA or weekly at the most, and you buy the amount of Bitcoin that you're comfortable with, not the amount that Kenshin and I say. You do what you're comfortable with, and you put that away for the long term. Is that fair, Kenshin? Yep. Yep. I'm doing my daily this year. But we're just having fun. Right? I mean, this is fun. I may be wrong.
Again, I'm always the optimist, and I just you know, it just is what it is.
[00:36:08] Kenshin:
And I I I say I'm I'm the realist.
[00:36:10] McIntosh:
Well, you probably are. That's probably a fair statement. I'm still thinking I'm gonna be right, but we'll see. Alright. What do we got next? Oh, that was the question of the week. That was literally next. We really don't have any news and notes this week, do we?
[00:36:31] Kenshin:
I have a disturbing Oh. News or Yeah. You do. News. It's an article. Yeah. It's
[00:36:38] McIntosh:
Well, it's notes. Let's put it in here. Let's talk about it. Yeah. I mean, that's my biggest fear with Bitcoin
[00:36:45] Kenshin:
is, safety, personal safety. And this article says that on average, one Bitcoiner is kidnapped every week. Mhmm. And that's from Satoshi Labs founder, Elena Vranova. And she says the leaks from KYC data from centralized exchanges. Yeah. They they bring that risk.
[00:37:12] McIntosh:
I don't know if there will ever be a way to measure the damage that Coinbase did when they lost their data because of insiders, mind you. I don't, but it will be a lot because there's list out there of who owns Bitcoin, of what amount and addresses and etcetera, and it sets itself up for this. And that is being sold out there, like, you know, I don't know what a good analogy is, but it is out there and available. I'm glad my balance on Coinbase is zero and has been for a long, long time, frankly, because that is a little scary. It is something you need to think about. I don't know what to say other than be alert and aware. I don't know. Do you have any thoughts beyond that?
[00:38:11] Kenshin:
Yeah. I mean, for me, it's even worse because you find my name associated with Bitcoin, you put it on Google, you get literally 10 different Swedish pages showing my address on the map.
[00:38:23] McIntosh:
I think the address is included in this data, to be honest. I don't even think that matters, actually, in this case. But yes. And and it is amazing. Like, it may not be available, like, in your case, but even if I put in my name, there are services that you can buy that data. It gets stitched together from what is available, you know, publicly. It's just the world that we live in that's not changing anytime soon. It's why these KYC laws that we operate under here, both here and in the EU, It's so important that these things get repealed.
The the chance of your data getting lost, compromised whatever is just way too way too high. And then that puts you in danger.
[00:39:22] Kenshin:
Yeah. And, I am on a Binance list, and I never bought much on Binance.
[00:39:29] McIntosh:
Right. But still I hacked? I can't even.
[00:39:34] Kenshin:
Yeah. Long ago. But, I still get phone calls Wow. From Binance support.
[00:39:40] McIntosh:
I don't think I've ever gotten anything like that, to be honest. Not that I'm aware of. It's interesting.
[00:39:48] Kenshin:
Yeah. I mean, they should try and give me free laptops. Alright. No. I get, like, pretend that they are Binance support,
[00:39:57] McIntosh:
to help me. This is one of the reasons why I'm using them. Right? Same as you. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.
[00:40:05] Kenshin:
But they call me and they know my real name on that list. Mhmm. And that guy, when I upset him after one hour of pretending to be an idiot and and say, what are those magic Internet money? And then he started threatening me, and he could see where I live on the map, of course. So so then, stars get a bit
[00:40:26] McIntosh:
yeah. That's kinda scary. Yeah. Definitely. Alright. Alright, sir. Let's we don't have any software updates this week either. I did see Zeus had an update. If you're running Zeus, I didn't see anything else. Bitcoin price, I won't say what it was when we actually started, and then we're gonna say what it is right now. 08/13/2025, 121,781 US dollars. And how many euros is that? And €104,000
[00:41:01] Kenshin:
at the beginning of the episode.
[00:41:04] McIntosh:
And then last August 13, the price was, drum roll, please, 60,609, which means we are up 100.9%. Thank you very much. But you know what the real price actually is as we record? 122,431. Oh. Just a few more thousand, Kenshin, and I'm telling you, this is gonna be off to the races. We will see. I'm gonna break with tradition. I know we don't talk about other things here on. I I will note. I know some of y'all own some ETH. ETH is actually about to break its all time high. So congratulations, ETH. You're almost to the point where Bitcoin was when it broke $70,000 however long ago that was.
Oh, man. And ladies and gentlemen, I have maintained if you own ETH, if you're not gonna sell it immediately or any of these other crazy crypto tokens, you need to sell them at some point here in this bull run. I'm thinking I've been thinking that last quarter of this year would be the top. I'm not sure that's gonna be the case, but we'll see. It may stretch out. But we're at $4,740 for ETH. So I know that hurts your ears, Ken. Yep. But it's funny because you look at the chart and ETH has not been at that point in, like, three years. It's crazy.
[00:42:40] Kenshin:
I'm not gonna lose time with
[00:42:43] McIntosh:
looking at this. I know. I'm just well, I mean, it's on the same thing. It was, no, four years. It a full cycle. Crazy.
[00:42:55] Kenshin:
But Bitcoin's market cap is at 2,400,000,000,000.0.
[00:43:01] McIntosh:
Yeah. Looks good. Sorry. I didn't wanna get I didn't mean to get you off track. I just I do know some of our listeners have it. Y'all can admit it. It's okay. But you need to sell your ETH. Gold market cap, 23,400,000,000,000.0. And what does that mean for Bitcoin versus gold?
[00:43:18] Kenshin:
10.4.
[00:43:20] McIntosh:
Boom. There you go. I think that's close to Is that the highest we've seen? We
[00:43:27] Kenshin:
it might be I know with another metric. Let me see the how many ounces we get. That's the metric I know. We are 36.2 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. I think the highest was 37. Okay. So we're very, very close.
[00:43:52] McIntosh:
So we are really close. For the mempool, we're looking at about three sats per vbyte right now, 205 megabytes of unprocessed transactions, and that is actually about 82,000 transactions. Alright. Satoshi's Plebs is a value for value podcast supporting podcasting two point o. No ads, no sponsorships, just honest Bitcoin content. I deliberately avoid sponsors because even if I love a company, taking their money would influence my opinion. What if something goes wrong with that company? I would hesitate to warn our listeners. Instead, I ask, are you getting value from this show? Support it through time, talent, or treasure.
You can help with chapters, with transcripts, future projects like our chat room, which you can help with chapters, transcripts, or future projects, or you can just stream sets and boost with messages. Even a 100 sets saying great show or you suck. We read it either way. Check out the apps at podcastapps.com and support independent Bitcoin media. If you like the content, I would love it if you would tell your friends about the podcast. That is the best way to grow for us to grow. This week's music is Horizons of Hope by Jawbone.
Any boost for streaming of sets during that song will go straight to the artist.
[00:45:22] Kenshin:
So thank you for being here. We hope that this has been helpful, and we would love to hear from you. Find all our contact info at satoshis.plebs.com. Stay humble. And have a great weekend.
[00:45:36] McIntosh:
We'll talk to you all soon.
[00:45:38] Kenshin:
Bye bye.
Welcome back to Satoshi's Plebs for episode 222. I'm McIntosh.
[00:00:06] Kenshin:
And I am Kenshin. And today, we're diving into institutional Bitcoin adoption hitting overdrive. Specifically a key metric on Coinbase that just flushed a major bullish signal.
[00:00:18] McIntosh:
We're talking about institutional trading volumes hitting 75% on Coinbase. And historically, every time this has happened, Bitcoin's price has risen within seven days, plus institutions are buying 600% more Bitcoin than is even being mined daily.
[00:00:37] Kenshin:
Yes. And we'll break down who these institutions are, what's driving this surge, and, see all the signals that are making this the perfect storm for Bitcoin. Let's dive in.
[00:00:51] McIntosh:
Awesome. Alright. We're at a block height of 909,881. Wow. We're about to hit a million blocks, aren't we? How many weeks is that? No. It's I mean, it's a thou is it thousand blocks a week roughly? I guess we sorry. We still have over a year left. Never mind. What's up with you, Kenshin? Macintosh does math. Live on the air, it's bad. Yeah.
[00:01:26] Kenshin:
It's good. It's well, good. It's, it's back on the hamster wheel in the, yeah, in the Fiat world. So it's, it's tricky to get used to it, wake up in the morning, go to work, all the rest of it. Looking ahead, it's a couple of business trips. So, yeah, a bit stressed, but, yeah, should
[00:01:52] McIntosh:
should be okay. You know, when you came on, I did not realize you were the global traveler that you are. It's part of your job in essence, but, yeah, it's kinda cool. I get to live vicariously through you. I was trying to remember last night at dinner. We were talking. It's been a long time since I've been anywhere. And in fact, I think the last time I went somewhere was a conference, and it's been several years ago. Anyways, I guess I'm jealous. Sorry.
[00:02:28] Kenshin:
I'm cut I'm coming to your side of the pond. Yeah. Well, you're a few hours away.
[00:02:34] McIntosh:
More than a few hours away, but, yeah, you're getting over here. So, you can have some, let's see. So if you're in Philly, you should have the Philly cheesesteak. Have you had that?
[00:02:50] Kenshin:
No. I don't know what that is.
[00:02:53] McIntosh:
That's good stuff. Well, anyways alright. And a couple of things I wanted to mention. Well, we I think we've done an entire episode about scams, but I almost got scammed this week. And I did kinda wanna mention that because I always like to point these things out. We had somebody on our local Bitcoin meetup website, which you can just register. There's no vetting process, whatever. Post a message saying they wanted to donate a Macintosh, AirBook, laptop to somebody who would be using it for Bitcoin purposes and blah blah blah. You know? Of course, they made it sound good. And, initially, I just kinda blew it off. I'm like, I don't need that. I mean, I I have a Mac Air.
Actually, that's literally what I'm using as we record, but it's my personal one. And I have all my stuff on it and all that kind of stuff. And you and I, we've kind of been talking. We really I I personally we need dedicated recording, you know, computers. It just makes it easier. It makes it, like, if we change things, then sometimes we have problems, getting recordings going and all that kind of stuff. And I'm like, well, you know, actually, that that would work well for that. I sent the person a message. I said, hey.
You know, I'm I'm interested. I explained the podcast. I said, I'd love to use it for that. And, you know, we could just we could just meet at the next meetup. My thinking that they were someone who was involved in our local meetup. And they came back to me and said, well, I I can meet with you. That'd be great. Where do you wanna meet? And I'm like, well, whatever in our local area. And I told him that. Just trying to be helpful. And he's like, well, I live in somewhere in Texas, and that set off alarm bells for me.
It clearly was not someone who was in our local meetup. It was clearly somebody who had just created an account, sent that message out, and I don't know what their deal was. I've never I've basically, I dropped it at that point. I don't know. But I've been around long enough to know that was a scam. Right? Right. Yeah. There's no reason that they could not have given that away to somebody locally. So what they did was they made a bunch of accounts on meetup.com and sent it out to all or they joined all of the meetups, the Bitcoin meetups, and just kinda group send it out or whatever. So that was kind of interesting.
[00:05:53] Kenshin:
Yeah. But it was not so elaborate, to have, like, a a malware inside the laptop that steals your seed phrase.
[00:06:03] McIntosh:
Well, that might have been and, actually, my wife and I discussed that very thing. Like, now if that would have been the angle, then, funny enough, if I would have gotten a laptop, the first thing I would have done was thrown, Linux on it. Yeah. So that would have defeated that. But I I don't think that's what it was. I I'm not sure. It doesn't matter. Unfortunately, that did not work out. I did try and actually we had an old computer laying around the house. I was telling you this right before we started. And, so this thing, like, nobody else can use it. I'm like, hey. I'll throw Linux on it. Maybe we can use that for our it's it is literally so old. The modern Ubuntu with KDE and the recording tools cannot load on it. It just fails.
[00:06:57] Kenshin:
So Mhmm. Yay. There is a special distribution for Mac. Right?
[00:07:06] McIntosh:
Asante. I always get it wrong. But if you spell it Asante. Something like that. I'll look it up real quick. Yeah. They've been yeah. It is Asahi. They have been tracking, for a while, and they're getting a lot of good changes into the kernel and this type thing. I probably would have put this on there because it it probably would have given me a better experience than trying to run, you know, whatever the latest whatever is to to install on there. Yep. There's, yeah. Anyways, one day. One day. We we need to do something, though. I got a few things I'm a probably try and sell, scrape together some money to to get something.
And then I also need to get a I really need to get a soundboard, to be honest, so we can do some interactive things, like play music or, sound effects or whatever. Right? Alright. Enough about that. Excuse me. Yeah. The tea is not hot enough today anyways. We got some supporters this week. We did. Thank you. Yeah. We sure did. I'll go ahead and grab the first one, and then you can grab the second one. So our friend, Send It Mike, sent in a thousand and 69 sats, and he says, I'm catching up from having been on vacation myself. I'm getting jealous. You guys are all on these vacations.
Anyways, enjoyed the interview last week. Hopefully, I'll have I'll have to I'll have time to check out bitcoin-safe.org. I would highly recommend that whether it's maybe not for now, but maybe for the longer term. The music this week was dot dot dot dot interesting. That's what I say all the time. It reminded me of a song I made with AI. I was not expecting this. It reminded me of a song I made with AI that I really like, and he gave a link to it. I will post it in the show notes. Mhmm. So we will have to take a listen to that. I've not had a chance to listen to it. We did switch the music up this week. It will be Jawbone, with a song title, which I don't have on the tip of my head, but, tip of my tongue. But we've played Jawbone before, and, I actually think this song might even be better than the first one we played. So, anyways It doesn't have a weird name that I cannot pronounce. Right? Well, Jawbone is kinda weird. No. The oh, no. Not this song title.
[00:09:54] Kenshin:
Okay. Good.
[00:09:56] McIntosh:
Troubadour. Elect Troubadour. I yeah. Dude's gotta work on that. Anyways Alright.
[00:10:05] Kenshin:
Then we got from Aldum at Fountain, 200 and SaaS, and they say, I'm listening, but if you don't bring up slightly wrong Austrian economics trivia, I won't be compelled to comment.
[00:10:21] McIntosh:
Right. That was funny. Hey. I would say this. I know a lot of our listeners, you know, they don't actively interact or whatever. Maybe they don't feel like they have anything to say or comment or whatever, which is fine. I certainly have no problem with that. But you do have the opportunity to stream to support the show if you want, and that doesn't require anything except configuring your podcasting two point o player to do so. Mhmm. And you can set the level of streaming, and it can be, you know, one set a minute, which for our normal hour episode, you're looking at 60 sets.
[00:11:05] Kenshin:
I don't think you can do that on fountain. They have a minimum. Anymore?
[00:11:09] McIntosh:
They they actually used to. They have a minimum, I mean, limit. Okay. I think it's, like, 10 sets a minute. It may be. So Yeah. That's more that 600 and maybe you don't wanna do that. I get it. But that type thing does support this show and, you know, helps us to get some of these things that we need.
[00:11:34] Kenshin:
Right. So today's topic, we are talking about institutions going all in on Bitcoin and, the 75% signal. So there is a story, an article about a metric that when, the daily outflows or Mhmm. I guess inflows, The daily spending on Coinbase exceeds or hits this 75% from institution institutions, then that signals, a big price increase coming up, within a week.
[00:12:17] McIntosh:
So they're talking about 75% of the total buying volume on Coinbase is coming from businesses. Right?
[00:12:26] Kenshin:
Yes. Exactly. And I thought it was interesting because it's it's an easy metric to follow, and it seems that it's been doing that in the past. And it's also interesting because institutions have been popping up more and more in the news. They have? Buying a lot of Bitcoin, have their, Bitcoin reserves in in their companies. So, yeah, we'll get into that a bit now. Okay.
[00:12:59] McIntosh:
Let's do it.
[00:13:00] Kenshin:
Yeah. So it's actually the name is, Charles Edwards from Caprio Investments who has supported this pattern of the 75%. And as we said, is the every time the institutional volume in a day exceeds 75% on Coinbase, then the price rises a lot within a week. And this happened to was it today, actually, that came out? I'm not exactly sure,
[00:13:35] McIntosh:
to be honest. Six hours ago. So there you go. By the way, we are at remember what I said? We're at block height. What was it? 909,881. So you can look up when this we're actually talking about this. As we talk, we've not gotten to the Bitcoin price. It is pumping, and we'll get to that when we get to so it is interesting. We will see what happens with the price, but they may have put this out this article just in time, so to speak.
[00:14:09] Kenshin:
Mhmm. And I can see also here, they have a a chart in in that article, in the beginning of the year, '24, '25.
[00:14:20] McIntosh:
Mhmm.
[00:14:21] Kenshin:
The institutions had even more, spending, in Coinbase, more than 75% as I understand. And that that's also spiked a lot of the price. So the price spiked from 70,000 up to 100.
[00:14:41] McIntosh:
Right. We all remember that. Right? Yeah. I do. Yes. I cried the whole time. I'm like
[00:14:53] Kenshin:
Happy tears. No. No.
[00:14:56] McIntosh:
It may never get back down to 70 again. Yeah. I don't know. We'll see. Yeah.
[00:15:04] Kenshin:
Yeah. But, yeah, why does this matter? And how why does that happen? It is because the institutions, of course, they trade with very, very large volumes, and they have a large capital basis.
[00:15:20] McIntosh:
They do seem to be increasing the amount. I mean, historically, MSCR or strategy has made fairly long large Bitcoin purchases, but we are starting to see more and more that these institutions are not just buying a few coins. At least that's kind of I guess that's my opinion.
[00:15:43] Kenshin:
Sorry. Yeah. That's yeah. Exactly. That's right. And you see that with strategy? They I think they buy every Monday or something like that.
[00:15:49] McIntosh:
Yeah. I don't think it correlates every Monday, but maybe. It does seem like he's posting that chart an awful lot. Yeah.
[00:16:02] Kenshin:
And, now we see other companies popping up out of nowhere Mhmm. Like, Jack Mallers' new company, the twenty one Capital. Today, I actually saw by accident another company called Nakamoto. They're also just their only purpose is just to hold Bitcoin. Right. So it's companies popping up here and there that spend hundreds of millions, if not billions. And the only thing they offer is a reserve. Yeah. And talking again, what why is that important? And we see that we said, of course, those are big companies. They do big volumes. On Tuesday, yesterday, it said that they bought 810 Bitcoin.
And on Monday, actually, they bought, 3,000 Bitcoin. And to put that into perspective, of course, we only get 450 Bitcoin mined per day.
[00:17:10] McIntosh:
Right.
[00:17:11] Kenshin:
So where did I see that number? In in, some days, we were 600% buying more Bitcoin that that's been mined.
[00:17:21] McIntosh:
Of the 450. Right? Is that what you're yeah. Yeah. So in other words, a 100% would be 450. So 450 times six, whatever that amount is. Right? Yeah. That's a huge amount of Bitcoin, and I don't wanna tie it down to any specific, oh, when we exceed the 450, then this is gonna happen, at this time, this price or whatever. But I do know that if we continue to buy more Bitcoin than are being mined, ultimately, the price has to go up. Mhmm. It's that simple. Right? Because clearly there is a demand for the product that's being pulled out of the I was gonna say pulled out of the ground. That's funny. Yeah.
That's being mined. If only someone was smart enough to come up with a better name than mining. Anyways
[00:18:18] Kenshin:
It it it wouldn't sound so good. There there was some changes. You're right.
[00:18:24] McIntosh:
It is yeah. It's interesting. Alright. So right. So there we go.
[00:18:31] Kenshin:
Mhmm. And then another interesting because we're talking about Coinbase now, statistics. Right? Mhmm. And someone would ask and I would ask, why Coinbase? Why why does it matter? 75% of of Bitcoin volume,
[00:18:47] McIntosh:
on Coinbase. That's a good question.
[00:18:49] Kenshin:
Yeah. And the answer is because companies prefer to buy from Coinbase because they get those pro accounts. They comply with regulations and insurances. They have some institutional grade custody solutions, whatever those are. They say they do. Yeah. Anyways. And Yes. That is correct. Of course they do. Some yeah.
[00:19:16] McIntosh:
Special fees. Been around for a long time. Yeah. They get good
[00:19:21] Kenshin:
yeah. And And they get low fees and and large trades and stuff. So that's why it matters in that sense. So in US, it's it's a big deal. Most of them go from through Coinbase.
[00:19:34] McIntosh:
I would be interested if it would be possible to figure this out. Like, what percentage in The US of companies that use Coinbase versus Kraken? Because I would think Kraken would be the other place. I I get that Coinbase is bigger. I just don't know how much bigger, and I'm kinda curious because Kraken's gonna offer those same kinds of services. They've not been around as long. But I would point out, they also do not have the history that Coinbase does because Coinbase frankly has dropped the ball a few times.
[00:20:13] Kenshin:
Yeah. And with all these altcoins, especially.
[00:20:17] McIntosh:
Yeah. Well, they do they do it in ways that Kraken does not, but Kraken promotes the same old coins. Let's be honest.
[00:20:25] Kenshin:
Alright.
[00:20:26] McIntosh:
So it's not a Bitcoin only versus, you know, crypto. It's who provides the best service, and I've used both of them. I I would argue very easily, I think, that it's cracking. I mean, Coinbase can't even stay up when it starts getting busy. That's how we know we're in a bull run. Right. I mean, seriously. Right? Their website just shuts down, which is, you know, awesome when you're trying to place that order, that trade, that kind of thing. That was why I got off of them personally. But anyways but, yeah, I mean, they're the number one. They are.
[00:21:08] Kenshin:
Yeah. So yeah. So all this to say that, yeah, there is a lot of pressure on, Bitcoin supply right now, which is natural. Of course, we would never run out of Bitcoin because everybody has a price, obviously. But that just means that the price naturally needs to go up, and that's what the statistics show.
[00:21:33] McIntosh:
$10,000,000 of Bitcoin. You can have every Bitcoin that I've got. Really? You will exchange it for fiat? Yeah. Because I'll turn around and buy all the Bitcoin I can with it. But yes.
[00:21:47] Kenshin:
Yeah. Yes. We don't have much more. Of course, this can be connected also with CPI data, things like that. But
[00:22:03] McIntosh:
Well, I actually think that that's interesting because you got some notes in here about a couple of things, and I I wanna talk about this. Okay. You this researcher feels like the economy is getting better is kinda what it sounds like to me. I don't know that that what he said actually as US inflation cools and markets see lower interest rates next month. Now I don't think inflation has cooled, but I'm just the grumpy old man on the front porch. It is starting to look like we will see lower interest rates, so that probably will kick off an investment boom if you wanna call it that.
And he also talks about risk, risk assets, the demand for those. I'm not sure Bitcoin has not moved out of that category. We do not see the correlation between the stock market and Bitcoin that we have in the past. I think that Bitcoin is starting to operate in kind of the inverse of the economy. I don't know. Maybe I'm grasping at that, but I don't consider it to be a risk a risky asset, whatever they call it, risk on or I can't whatever. Like, it's a speculation. Now maybe I'm wrong. I'd I'm open for that being the case. But
[00:23:35] Kenshin:
I mean, with all of those institutions buying with the ETFs buying, it feels like there is so much pressure.
[00:23:44] McIntosh:
Do you know what prior to the Bitcoin ETFs, what the fastest ETF in history was? I think it was a gold. It was. It was gold, and gold certainly not a risk asset. Just another piece of evidence, if you wanna call it that, that bit Bitcoin is not a risk. If it were something risky, I don't think people would be dumping all that money into it. That's just I don't know. That's just me.
[00:24:14] Kenshin:
And now you can put legally your four zero one case in US?
[00:24:19] McIntosh:
Yes. I'm looking forward to that.
[00:24:22] Kenshin:
So that's it's gonna be significant, I guess, also. Adds up to that pressure.
[00:24:28] McIntosh:
Some people think that this is part of Trump's plan to deleverage the dollar and so on and so forth. I there may be some that may be true. That may be true.
[00:24:42] Kenshin:
Yep. Yeah. And then we talked a bit about, about it of air. We said, what happens when retail starts to fomole in when the prices go up? Yes. So that's, I guess, the next stage. So
[00:24:58] McIntosh:
right now, we've got ETF steadily stacking, I believe, on average, more than 450 Bitcoin a day. The last figures I saw that was certainly the case. On top of that, you now have treasuries like MicroStrategy who are out there buying large sums of Bitcoin on a regular cadence. It's not every day, but MicroStrategy is almost weekly, if not weekly. And other companies are buying as they can raise the capital. And then on top of that, you've got companies like, just regular companies who are buying Bitcoin. That is what has gotten us to a 120, maybe even higher. It's starting to look like we're gonna press through kind of this one twenty level. We need to do it by the August, please. Thank you. So I can win the bet.
But my point is you wait until retail kicks in because at some point, retail is gonna kick in. They're gonna FOMO in. And when they do, when the Coinbase app gets to be number one on the Amazon or not Amazon, the iOS, App Store, then then we're off to the races. So maybe alright. I don't wanna theorize, but maybe we're at a 150 by the September or so, and and that's based on institutional buying. What happens at that point when retail jumps in? I don't know, but it's not gonna go down.
[00:26:40] Kenshin:
Yeah. So FOMO is strong.
[00:26:43] McIntosh:
FOMO is real. Look. That guy almost got me in that scam because FOMO. Because I was like, oh, laptop. Oh, laptop. Wait. I can.
[00:26:58] Kenshin:
It's it's the opportunity of a lifetime.
[00:27:01] McIntosh:
Right. Exactly. So, yeah, I I think I do think in some ways the economy is setting up to help all this out. I Trump is going to get the lower interest rates that he wants. I do believe that that will help the Wall Street in general. I was gonna say the economy, and it will help people hopefully in the long run, with, like, home loans and that kind of thing, but it will help Wall Street. It will help the government, and it will help Bitcoin.
[00:27:42] Kenshin:
Yeah. So closing thoughts on this topic. Yeah. I I think there is something to it. I like those statistics in general and, yeah, When institutions are buying, yeah, it makes sense that, price goes up. Simple as that. And the institutions are I I'm sorry. Yeah. I didn't want to mention that. In Sweden, I even saw a company come out of nowhere and say, oh, we will stack Bitcoin in a reserve. And then they said something about something about the health sector, improving the health sector somehow. Mhmm. But their their white paper was terrible, like, one page long, basically, and saying nothing really about a product or a service, but very specific about buying Bitcoin.
So you see all those companies that they just want to buy Bitcoin now. The
[00:28:43] McIntosh:
I think it's fascinating. Not well, I think it's fascinating how many companies are, they're not profitable. They're barely profitable. They're I I one of the terms that's used a lot is zombie companies. They're just kinda there. And Like micro strategy used to be. Like MicroStrategy used to be. Yeah. I believe a lot of those will jump on Bitcoin, which will certainly help them in the short term. You know, long term, you still have to have a product. You still have to do something useful. But I believe and I'm it is becoming stronger day by day, really.
I believe that our stock market, the companies that are listed there, by and large are a they're a picture of Fiat, essentially, and there's a lot of really bad financial stuff going on there. Do you realize I don't know if you've ever heard this. She got the Mag seven. Right? These magnificent seven or whatever these top companies. If you take them out of the stock market, it's a joke. Like, the stock market is not growing. It's those companies. So these darling companies who I would argue are priced well beyond what they're worth because of hype, because of the latest thing.
[00:30:14] Kenshin:
Yeah. That's interesting because I heard that, and it's it's I think it's very true that they are priced based on future promise, not on current performance. You're correct. But there's no guarantee No. That OpenAI
[00:30:30] McIntosh:
or any of these companies will be around ten years from now. No. Exactly. But, you know, if you take them out, the stock market is a joke. But what do we do? What do we tell people? You invest in the stock market. You get an index fund. Right? So what you end up doing is you get three to 5% growth on an annual basis. And what is that? It's inflation. So, yay, you're keeping up with inflation, but this is what we teach kids to do. It's frustrating because the further I come out of that system, the more I see that. And I'm like, I want to tell them, stop, put your money in Bitcoin, do you know, see what's going on.
But the reality is most people, the vast majority of people who haven't done the research, mind you, and I I get that, but they haven't. They view Bitcoin as being risky. And so they won't do that. Even though when you're 20 years old, that's when you should be doing the risk, not when you're in your sixties. Right? Anyways, what else do we got, sir?
[00:31:57] Kenshin:
That's for the main topic. Some, resources. The name of that person was Charles Edwards again from Caprio Investments.
[00:32:06] McIntosh:
And we'll certainly have a link to that article in the show notes as well.
[00:32:11] Kenshin:
Yes. It was an art it has some interesting charts also. That article is from CoinTelegraph.
[00:32:16] McIntosh:
So it's from today once Which occasionally they have good articles.
[00:32:23] Kenshin:
Yeah.
[00:32:25] McIntosh:
You gotta wade through some stuff to get there. But yeah. So so what's your say here's what I hear you saying. Am I correct? Next week, we're going to a 130.
[00:32:38] Kenshin:
Yeah. Possibly.
[00:32:40] McIntosh:
Does that mean I win the bet? I don't remember. We need to go back over the transcript because I don't remember the details. No. No. No. I think the bet was a you were saying 150, and I was saying micro sold value. I did. I said a 150. I do remember that, but I don't remember by when. Was it the end of this month? Or
[00:33:01] Kenshin:
Yeah. I think so.
[00:33:02] McIntosh:
Okay.
[00:33:03] Kenshin:
And I told you not in not too much summer.
[00:33:06] McIntosh:
Coming up. What do we got? Seven, fourteen, like, seventeen more days.
[00:33:16] Kenshin:
Yeah. It's It's not gonna happen. But it's gonna we are gonna have You did not just say that.
[00:33:24] McIntosh:
Okay. Here's the thing. Here's my thesis. Right? If we get past and I think I've said this, but if we get past a 120, a 122 kind of this area that we're not stuck in, but, you know, we keep kinda hitting them. If we get through that, one fifty is the next stop, and it will only take a few days. So if we get through that, that's only 30,000 from here. Kenshin, you know we've already had multiple days in this cycle where it's been almost $10,000
[00:33:58] Kenshin:
a day. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I'm just getting stuck on the the time frame of the summer.
[00:34:04] McIntosh:
September, October, we will do it. Yeah. I know you think that. I'm not completely out in left field here, though. It is still possible. Next week, I may be giving up hope, but for right now
[00:34:17] Kenshin:
Okay, Mark. Micah Sean. There's your question of the week. Who is right?
[00:34:24] McIntosh:
There you go. Question of the week. Is Macintosh a moron or is Kenshin right? Or wait. That's the same thing. Yeah. Well, that sounds like a good question, though. Hey. I am an optimist. That's part that's probably why I did not, succeed long term trading. I'm an optimist about Bitcoin. No doubt. And you know what? In the end, ladies and gentlemen, you can let you can this is the important thing. It doesn't matter if we reach a 150,000 by the August. It doesn't. Bitcoin will continue to grow as adoption takes place, as companies continue to buy, as retail investors become more interested, etcetera.
It does not matter if it's at the August, the September, the end of the year, the end of next year, five years from now. What matters is what are you doing? Are you DCA? That's what we talk about here on the Stojshweb podcast. Right? You do your daily DCA or weekly at the most, and you buy the amount of Bitcoin that you're comfortable with, not the amount that Kenshin and I say. You do what you're comfortable with, and you put that away for the long term. Is that fair, Kenshin? Yep. Yep. I'm doing my daily this year. But we're just having fun. Right? I mean, this is fun. I may be wrong.
Again, I'm always the optimist, and I just you know, it just is what it is.
[00:36:08] Kenshin:
And I I I say I'm I'm the realist.
[00:36:10] McIntosh:
Well, you probably are. That's probably a fair statement. I'm still thinking I'm gonna be right, but we'll see. Alright. What do we got next? Oh, that was the question of the week. That was literally next. We really don't have any news and notes this week, do we?
[00:36:31] Kenshin:
I have a disturbing Oh. News or Yeah. You do. News. It's an article. Yeah. It's
[00:36:38] McIntosh:
Well, it's notes. Let's put it in here. Let's talk about it. Yeah. I mean, that's my biggest fear with Bitcoin
[00:36:45] Kenshin:
is, safety, personal safety. And this article says that on average, one Bitcoiner is kidnapped every week. Mhmm. And that's from Satoshi Labs founder, Elena Vranova. And she says the leaks from KYC data from centralized exchanges. Yeah. They they bring that risk.
[00:37:12] McIntosh:
I don't know if there will ever be a way to measure the damage that Coinbase did when they lost their data because of insiders, mind you. I don't, but it will be a lot because there's list out there of who owns Bitcoin, of what amount and addresses and etcetera, and it sets itself up for this. And that is being sold out there, like, you know, I don't know what a good analogy is, but it is out there and available. I'm glad my balance on Coinbase is zero and has been for a long, long time, frankly, because that is a little scary. It is something you need to think about. I don't know what to say other than be alert and aware. I don't know. Do you have any thoughts beyond that?
[00:38:11] Kenshin:
Yeah. I mean, for me, it's even worse because you find my name associated with Bitcoin, you put it on Google, you get literally 10 different Swedish pages showing my address on the map.
[00:38:23] McIntosh:
I think the address is included in this data, to be honest. I don't even think that matters, actually, in this case. But yes. And and it is amazing. Like, it may not be available, like, in your case, but even if I put in my name, there are services that you can buy that data. It gets stitched together from what is available, you know, publicly. It's just the world that we live in that's not changing anytime soon. It's why these KYC laws that we operate under here, both here and in the EU, It's so important that these things get repealed.
The the chance of your data getting lost, compromised whatever is just way too way too high. And then that puts you in danger.
[00:39:22] Kenshin:
Yeah. And, I am on a Binance list, and I never bought much on Binance.
[00:39:29] McIntosh:
Right. But still I hacked? I can't even.
[00:39:34] Kenshin:
Yeah. Long ago. But, I still get phone calls Wow. From Binance support.
[00:39:40] McIntosh:
I don't think I've ever gotten anything like that, to be honest. Not that I'm aware of. It's interesting.
[00:39:48] Kenshin:
Yeah. I mean, they should try and give me free laptops. Alright. No. I get, like, pretend that they are Binance support,
[00:39:57] McIntosh:
to help me. This is one of the reasons why I'm using them. Right? Same as you. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.
[00:40:05] Kenshin:
But they call me and they know my real name on that list. Mhmm. And that guy, when I upset him after one hour of pretending to be an idiot and and say, what are those magic Internet money? And then he started threatening me, and he could see where I live on the map, of course. So so then, stars get a bit
[00:40:26] McIntosh:
yeah. That's kinda scary. Yeah. Definitely. Alright. Alright, sir. Let's we don't have any software updates this week either. I did see Zeus had an update. If you're running Zeus, I didn't see anything else. Bitcoin price, I won't say what it was when we actually started, and then we're gonna say what it is right now. 08/13/2025, 121,781 US dollars. And how many euros is that? And €104,000
[00:41:01] Kenshin:
at the beginning of the episode.
[00:41:04] McIntosh:
And then last August 13, the price was, drum roll, please, 60,609, which means we are up 100.9%. Thank you very much. But you know what the real price actually is as we record? 122,431. Oh. Just a few more thousand, Kenshin, and I'm telling you, this is gonna be off to the races. We will see. I'm gonna break with tradition. I know we don't talk about other things here on. I I will note. I know some of y'all own some ETH. ETH is actually about to break its all time high. So congratulations, ETH. You're almost to the point where Bitcoin was when it broke $70,000 however long ago that was.
Oh, man. And ladies and gentlemen, I have maintained if you own ETH, if you're not gonna sell it immediately or any of these other crazy crypto tokens, you need to sell them at some point here in this bull run. I'm thinking I've been thinking that last quarter of this year would be the top. I'm not sure that's gonna be the case, but we'll see. It may stretch out. But we're at $4,740 for ETH. So I know that hurts your ears, Ken. Yep. But it's funny because you look at the chart and ETH has not been at that point in, like, three years. It's crazy.
[00:42:40] Kenshin:
I'm not gonna lose time with
[00:42:43] McIntosh:
looking at this. I know. I'm just well, I mean, it's on the same thing. It was, no, four years. It a full cycle. Crazy.
[00:42:55] Kenshin:
But Bitcoin's market cap is at 2,400,000,000,000.0.
[00:43:01] McIntosh:
Yeah. Looks good. Sorry. I didn't wanna get I didn't mean to get you off track. I just I do know some of our listeners have it. Y'all can admit it. It's okay. But you need to sell your ETH. Gold market cap, 23,400,000,000,000.0. And what does that mean for Bitcoin versus gold?
[00:43:18] Kenshin:
10.4.
[00:43:20] McIntosh:
Boom. There you go. I think that's close to Is that the highest we've seen? We
[00:43:27] Kenshin:
it might be I know with another metric. Let me see the how many ounces we get. That's the metric I know. We are 36.2 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. I think the highest was 37. Okay. So we're very, very close.
[00:43:52] McIntosh:
So we are really close. For the mempool, we're looking at about three sats per vbyte right now, 205 megabytes of unprocessed transactions, and that is actually about 82,000 transactions. Alright. Satoshi's Plebs is a value for value podcast supporting podcasting two point o. No ads, no sponsorships, just honest Bitcoin content. I deliberately avoid sponsors because even if I love a company, taking their money would influence my opinion. What if something goes wrong with that company? I would hesitate to warn our listeners. Instead, I ask, are you getting value from this show? Support it through time, talent, or treasure.
You can help with chapters, with transcripts, future projects like our chat room, which you can help with chapters, transcripts, or future projects, or you can just stream sets and boost with messages. Even a 100 sets saying great show or you suck. We read it either way. Check out the apps at podcastapps.com and support independent Bitcoin media. If you like the content, I would love it if you would tell your friends about the podcast. That is the best way to grow for us to grow. This week's music is Horizons of Hope by Jawbone.
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[00:45:22] Kenshin:
So thank you for being here. We hope that this has been helpful, and we would love to hear from you. Find all our contact info at satoshis.plebs.com. Stay humble. And have a great weekend.
[00:45:36] McIntosh:
We'll talk to you all soon.
[00:45:38] Kenshin:
Bye bye.
Introduction and Episode Overview
Personal Updates and Travel Plans
Avoiding Scams in the Bitcoin Community
Technical Challenges and Equipment Needs
Listener Support and Feedback
Institutional Buying and Market Impact
Coinbase's Role in Institutional Trading
Market Dynamics and Future Predictions
Retail FOMO and Market Speculations
Risks and Security Concerns in Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Update and Market Comparisons
Value for Value Model and Listener Engagement
