Think Bitcoin's "too late" because 95% of the supply is already mined? Think again. While mainstream media spins this as bad news, we explain why this scarcity is exactly what makes Bitcoin so powerful for regular people. The nearly-complete supply isn't Bitcoin's weakness—it's its superpower.
We break down why scarcity benefits plebs over institutions, how the final 5% will take over 100 years to mine, and what this means for your stacking strategy. Plus, we look at the numbers: Bitcoin gained over 61% in the past year alone, proving that "being late" to a scarce asset can still be incredibly profitable. Whether you're worried you missed the boat or want to understand Bitcoin's game theory, this episode will change how you think about supply dynamics.
Stick around to the very end for the v4v track, “Live For Tomorrow ” by Kazuki Tokaji
Bitcoin Price at Time of Recording
June 11th, 2025: 108,700 USD | 94,600 EUR
Block Height at Time of Recording: 900,832
Episode Page
https://satoshis-plebs.com/episode-213
Music Credits
Kazuki Tokaji
Live For Tomorrow
Website
https://satoshis-plebs.com
Podcasting 2.0 Apps available at http://podcastapps.com and Value4Value information page available here: https://value4value.info
McIntosh can be reached by email at [email protected] and on Twitter at @McIntoshFinTech. His mastodon handle is @[email protected] and his Nostr. Kenshin can be reached on Twitter at @kenshin_ninja or on Nostr. Kenshin’s email is [email protected]. You can also follow the Satoshi’s Plebs podcast account on Nostr. We are looking forward to hearing from you!
We are looking forward to hearing from you!
What is up, Pleb Nation? Today is June the 11th, and this is episode 213 of Satoshi's Plebs. Today, we're tackling something that sounds scary, but it's the best news for Plebs. The fact that roughly 95% of the Bitcoin's total supply has already been mined. While mainstream media spins this as it's too late to get in, we're here to tell you why this scarcity is exactly what makes Bitcoin so powerful for plebs like us.
[00:00:30] Kenshin:
That's right. When people hear 95% mined, they panic thinking they missed the boat. But this scarcity is the entire point. We are talking about the hardest money ever created and the fact that there's so little left to mind makes every Satya stack more valuable.
[00:00:48] McIntosh:
We are diving into why nearly complete supply is Bitcoin's superpower and not its weakness, how this scarcity benefits plebs over institutions, why the last 5% will take one hundred years to mine, and what this means for mining economics and transaction fees.
[00:01:06] Kenshin:
Plus, how plebs can position themselves to benefit from this transition. It's not about mining Bitcoin yourself. It's about understanding the game theory that makes Bitcoin the ultimate savings technology.
[00:01:19] McIntosh:
Whether you're worried that you're too late to Bitcoin or want to understand why scarcity scarcity makes plebs wealthy. This episode will change how you think about supply dynamics. But before we dive into why 95% mined is a pleb paradise, let's call out to our live audience, Kenshin. We've got our people on ZapStream.
[00:01:44] Kenshin:
Right. Welcome.
[00:01:47] McIntosh:
Well, welcome. Yes. Welcome. As you join up, we are going to be rolling along today. As you can probably hear, Kenshin is a little under the weather. His voice is not doing so great, and I do not wanna keep him any longer than possible. He's graciously agreed to go ahead and record because I really don't like this doing with doing this without someone, but here we are. So we're just gonna get right on going. Our block height as we record is 900,000, which we rolled over during the week, 832. Congratulations. So, Kenshin, what's going on with you this week besides, a little bit of a cold there?
[00:02:30] Kenshin:
Yeah. Just a bit of a cold. It's mainly the throat hurting, but otherwise, okay. But, yeah. Unfortunately, I've been very busy with the Fiat. Yeah. We're all Fiat work is one of my yeah. It's one of my busiest weeks of the year. We have some people joining from globally, so we're hosting them and just running around these last few days. So not so fun. Not so fun.
[00:02:57] McIntosh:
Yeah. Well, I am sorry, and I really am sorry you don't feel good. It's it's tough. And when you're trying to record, a sore throat is the worst. For myself, I'm gonna say this only once. I know people don't really care at this point. The shed is done. I finished it up last weekend officially, all the little things and the receipts and everything, and I have moved on. I don't wanna talk about it. I don't wanna see it. But, yeah. Now we gotta clean the garage and clean my own storage shed so I can do some other things. So that is probably a summer project. I won't really be talking about it anymore, but I do need to get a jump on that.
Fun stuff when it's summertime and it's really hot and humid, and there's no air conditioning in either one of those. Oh, yeah. Alright. Well, we did get some great support this week. I wanted to, make mention of both of these. Send it Mike, sent us 3,069 sets. He listed episode 212, our last episode, and had this to say, haven't bought any KYC free range sets yet, but I will soon, hopefully. I've done some cashew stuff and used lightning, but since they are funded from KYC accounts, I don't trust they are gonna sneak past anyone really looking close.
Thank you for making the most requested episode by me. I'm looking into using a miner for a sauna, so I might be interested in those cheap secondhand miners, Mcintosh. We could talk about that. They are not in my possession yet. Send it, Mike. I'll probably just reach out to you. Not sure how I can do that. Maybe directly on Noster. I think I follow you there, when that time comes. And it may be a few more weeks, so don't don't hold your breath. They're actually still mining, still up and running. And I will let them run as long as the hosting company will let me. And then we also had a boost from HBH Gardens, a thousand sats. He was or he or she, I'm sorry, I do not know, but they were listening to episode two eleven, and he said I'm sorry. This is too funny. I'm here for the sawmill talk.
I promise that probably was not said by anyone else. Oh my goodness. I do appreciate it. Thank you very much. You you made my day when I read that about an hour ago, to be honest. That was too funny. But I really try to limit my talk. I do know that most people don't wanna listen to that. Now, friend, if we are ever at a conference together and you wish to talk about sawmills, you grab me, buy me one drink, and, we'll just talk about it for probably the next six hours or until you get bored and walk off. Kenshin must now share a non Bitcoin interest now. So, Kenshin, you are on the spot, sir.
[00:06:11] Kenshin:
Oh, okay. I can say I'm a huge Formula One fan.
[00:06:17] McIntosh:
I could attest to that, but you are
[00:06:21] Kenshin:
that. For the past twenty six years or twenty five. Yeah. It's my 20 season. 20 season.
[00:06:27] McIntosh:
Wow.
[00:06:28] Kenshin:
Yeah. Very cool. No specific team or driver.
[00:06:32] McIntosh:
Just Just the sport in general?
[00:06:35] Kenshin:
Yeah. I mean, I have my favorites. Yeah. Of course, I have my favorites and the ones I don't like, but but I wouldn't say I'm a fan of some person. I
[00:06:47] McIntosh:
Right.
[00:06:48] Kenshin:
But I yeah. I I don't miss a race.
[00:06:52] McIntosh:
Alright. So there you go. He he is an F1 nut. I will say that. I hear about it from time to time, for sure. And it's a sport I know nothing about, so it's kind of it it is very interesting, actually. But, yeah. Alright. So let's jump right on in because I really don't wanna keep you, long, Kenshin. Just I'm I'm really I'm trying to to keep this in mind. Okay. Okay. Yeah. So we are gonna talk about this whole thing. So this came up because I heard this stat. It got thrown around Twitter, Noster, wherever it was. And, you know, typically, it is framed, you know, 95% mind. What are we gonna do? Whatever. It's too late. The sky is falling, blah blah blah.
And I am not exaggerating. I really peep think people are looking at this the exact opposite of what it should be. Does that make sense? Mhmm.
[00:07:52] Kenshin:
Yeah.
[00:07:53] McIntosh:
If it were not 95% mined after sixteen years and we were still pumping out, say, 50 block, 50 Bitcoin blocks, like the blocks were, I would actually be I would not be nearly as enthused about Bitcoin as I am. In fact, I probably wouldn't have anything to do with it.
[00:08:19] Kenshin:
Yeah. We would have thousands of Bitcoins and one Bitcoin would not be so be worth anything.
[00:08:25] McIntosh:
So, you know, I think we a lot of people are looking at this the wrong way. So we need to be very careful about that. Now we need to be aware of that, but we need to be careful about that. What that means is, really, what's going on is Bitcoin was built with this halving mechanism. So every four years, the amount of Bitcoin that gets mined in a block is programmatically controlled to cut in half. So as I mentioned, originally, it was 50, and then it was 25, and then it was 12.5, and then it was 6.25, and then my math is gonna fail me. So I'll just stop there. But you see what's going on every four years. We're at what is it? 3.125? Is that I hope that's correct. Yeah. That's That's actually what it is right now. And the next time, it'll be half of that and half of that and so on. After a hundred and forty years, we essentially reach the limit of that 21 million total capacity that's built into the system. Now, technically, you can argue, well, you don't really reach that. That's true. It doesn't matter. It's so close. It's like calculus. Alright? Not that I should be talking about calculus because I struggled with it in both high school and college. But the the reality is in calculus, you have things that approach other things, and they never quite get there. And it's the same thing with this. So whatever. I'm now gonna wave my hand literally, and we're gonna move on because that's all I gotta say about that.
Right? Right. So this is a good thing. It is what lets us have our total supply cap. Unlike, say, the US dollar where they print and print and print. It's a lot more like gold, although we don't really know how much gold there is, but it's a lot more like gold. And that there is a limit, at least here on Earth, of what we actually have in terms of gold. And I think we see that play out in that through history. The price of gold in terms of what it will buy has actually remained very stable. Okay. Mhmm. So we say all that and then we say, well, but 95% of it's already done. What's gonna happen?
[00:10:58] Kenshin:
For me, 1,300,000 left. Did you say the amount?
[00:11:03] McIntosh:
No. I did not. So 19,700,000 out of the 21 million have been mined at this point and as yeah. 1.3 is left. 1,300,000.
[00:11:13] Kenshin:
Yeah. And for me, that sounds a lot, actually. 1,300,000.0
[00:11:17] McIntosh:
Bitcoin. Now this at this price is also it's it's quite a lot. Correct. It's more than the largest amount that's controlled by any one person that we know. Satoshi has roughly 1,000,000 Bitcoin in his wallet that's never been moved. There's no one else that's even close that I'm aware of. Institutionally, I think, Strategy owns, like, 550,000 or so, Bitcoin, which is a tremendous amount. It's even over half of a million, but it's it's it's not it's not crazy. Mhmm. They will do very well in the long term. But as they continue to buy Bitcoin, which is certainly, I think, Michael Saylor's intent, the price of Bitcoin will continue to go up over time, and it will get more and more difficult to for them to buy, that that asset. Right?
Mhmm. It's built that way, in my opinion, to actually be a good thing. I we do need to go back. I wanna go back, sorry, for for just a minute. The fact that it was built the way that it was, in my opinion, gave a huge advantage to people like you and me, to plebs. Okay. The people who are listening to this podcast, did they have to know tech? Yes, they did. If you weren't on the Internet, you had no idea about Bitcoin. If you weren't probably involved in the cypherpunk movement, You didn't know about Bitcoin for a while, and being technically adept certainly has helped.
You had to know what you were doing to set up those early miners, which were simply a laptop running, the Bitcoin core code essentially and which included the mining component at the time, and it would just sit there and run and run and run, and eventually you would hit a block. You had to be technically adept to do that. It wasn't available to everyone. But at the same time, it was so early, and it was so different than anything else. You did not see institutions become involved early on. They there was no it was a waste of their time. It was a waste of their resources or at least most likely it was. I mean, it turned out not to be. Right?
But but that's just looking at it in terms of a risk versus reward. That's what made sense. Right? They wouldn't become involved in something that early, but it let people like you and me get involved early. There was a fairly low bar to entry. You kinda had to be in the know, so to speak. But, you know, you could take a laptop originally and and mine Bitcoin. That's pretty slick. And then after, I want to say, a couple of years, it moved up to a GPU where you had to have a GPU powered computer essentially to to actually be able to mine reasonably.
And then eventually it moved to where that wasn't practical. And you had the development of the ASIC miners that we have now. But that took time. And certainly during that time frame, it gave a lot of time for plebs to join in. Does that make sense?
[00:14:42] Kenshin:
Yeah. Absolutely. And I think also it gave, like, a reward to those early plebs that they they developed the network. Right? They did. Because as you as you said, institutions, they had nothing to gain. There was no volume at that point. Right. So it was up to the plebs to to develop that network and proof of concept in a way to to, yeah, to build it up.
[00:15:07] McIntosh:
One thing that many people don't know, including, I bet, listeners to this podcast is when Bitcoin early on, it literally had no value. People would mine it and give it to other people. There were there was famously a website where you could do a very simple thing. I just well, I think it was literally just press a button, and it would give you 5 Bitcoin. I Yeah. I faucet. So but you're right. The Bitcoin faucet. There was no value to that Bitcoin, and it wasn't and I should know the timeline. I do not. But when the Bitcoin pizza was literally bought, that was certainly the commercial establishment of Bitcoin's value. Right? He paid was it 10,000? I hope it was. 10,000 Bitcoin for those two pizzas.
And that established that those two pizzas, which I believe at the time were worth about $20.25 bucks. 10,000 Bitcoin, $25. There was a value there and so on and so There probably was already some trading around. Oh, I'll buy a thousand Bitcoin from you. Here's $10 or something. I I don't know. There's probably even examples of that on the forums. But this is certainly the commercial example, and it really set a benchmark. It wasn't too long after that where we had exchanges set up or the early kind of proto exchanges where you can buy Bitcoin. And and the whole thing just kind of bootstrapped and developed, and it was done all without institutional money.
[00:16:52] Kenshin:
Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And those early Bitcoiners,
[00:16:57] McIntosh:
yeah, they got a good good amount for their troubles. They did. If they were able to hold on to that, many of those people are now, you know, very wealthy. And I don't begrudge them of that. I mean, do I regret not getting involved earlier? Of course, I do. But the fact that Max Keiser was buying Bitcoin at 30¢ a Bitcoin, for example, he was smart enough to figure it out. And Max was not a technical guy, still is not. He was a financial guy. As far as I know, basically, the financial guy essentially to become involved. And early on, he saw the potential, started buying Bitcoin, and started talking about it. He had a platform, and he told people about it. So you can't blame him for for what he did.
I mean, he did literally everything he could to spread the message. Do I wish I would have listened to that? 100%. I might have that soundboard I want. I'm just saying. Right? But Right. You know, but Michael Saylor pooh poohed Bitcoin until what was it? 2021? I think he's 2020. 2020. I think that's when he started buying. He finally figured it out, and he's done well for himself. But, you know, he wasn't buying Bitcoin at 30¢ or $300 like when I started or $3,000 Well, maybe he was. I don't know what the price of Bitcoin was in 2020, honestly.
But, yeah, you know, it is what it is. But but the fact that it was so front loaded because of the way that Satoshi set it up, I believe it benefited the plebs. And even though 95% of the Bitcoin has now been mined, the I should have had this number. I'm gonna talk to chat GPT for just a The amount that is in that is controlled by plebs versus institutions, it's dramatic. It's it's in our favor. I'll say that. Does that make sense?
[00:19:10] Kenshin:
Yeah. I mean, 50% of Bitcoin was mined, the first four years or something.
[00:19:19] McIntosh:
Yes. Yes. That would make sense.
[00:19:23] Kenshin:
Yeah. It was the three years the 10,000,000 Bitcoin were mined with a 50 Bitcoin per block.
[00:19:34] McIntosh:
So then yeah. Those early 10,000,000 coins went to the plebs mainly. Yes. So this is saying, I'm just gonna go ahead and read this out, and I've seen numbers like this, so this makes sense. And this is kind of a good news, bad news thing, to be honest, but we'll just go ahead and go through this. 74% of Bitcoin address is hold less than 0.01 Bitcoin, which is about $350 worth according to this, which that doesn't sound right. But let's just go with that. Only 2.3% of all Bitcoin owners own one Bitcoin or more. So it is very distributed among the smaller holders. I would argue if you've only got point o 1 Bitcoin, that's 1%.
So that would be a thousand. It'd be a little more than a thousand dollars. You need to be buying more Bitcoin. Do not look. Look. I hate this when I see I literally just saw this yesterday, Kenshin. Somebody, a well known person on Twitter yesterday saying point o one Bitcoin is gonna be generational wealth. Maybe not anytime soon. I'm sorry. It's just not times. So stop thinking that that's gonna set you free in the next ten years and buy some more Bitcoin while you still have the opportunity.
[00:20:50] Kenshin:
No. It will be good for your grandchildren.
[00:20:53] McIntosh:
Yes. But I'm not gonna be around to enjoy that. Thank you very much. Okay? I would like to actually enjoy some of these rewards that I am building up for my children and my grandchildren. Does that make sense?
[00:21:07] Kenshin:
Yeah. Well, I was saving that for later, but Sorry. The no. But, the last Bitcoin Mhmm. Will take forty years to money. Correct. But that's we're talking the year 2100 until 20140. So So yes.
[00:21:25] McIntosh:
1 Bitcoin by that time. Can I just say safely that everyone listening to this will not actually be alive at that point? Okay? Yes. In the I think that's a correct statement starting in Yeah. '21 for sure. Yes. That's well, that's that's eighty plus years from now, seventy five years. Most people are gonna be at least 20 years old listening. They're gonna be, like, 95.
[00:21:52] Kenshin:
Okay? Oh, now now everybody's depressed. I'm sorry. I look.
[00:21:57] McIntosh:
I want to be realistic, and I hate it when people post stuff like that for viewership. I I just I want to grab them and say stop it. You need to invest what you can on a daily or weekly basis. DCA, don't just buy 1% of a Bitcoin and sit on it because ten years from now, you're gonna be like, oh, this is only worth you know, maybe it's worth $10,000 by then. I don't know. But that's not gonna set you free. Maybe it's even worth a little more. It's not gonna set you free, people. Stop it. Buy more Bitcoin while the price is still where it's at.
Run some numbers. What is your little stash worth when it's a million dollars? And let's get all crazy because maybe one day it will be it won't be anytime soon. Sorry. But maybe one day it's gonna be worth $10,000,000. What will your stash be worth right now? Because that's a 100 x if I'm I think I'm doing that correctly. Roughly, we're 10 x from 1,000,000. We'd be a 100 x. Yeah. I did that right. A 100 times the value of your stash. Is that going to literally set you free? And that's for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin. I as much as I would like to tell you otherwise, I'm probably not going to see a $10,000,000 Bitcoin. My children may.
Yeah. I think the chances go up dramatically at that point. My grandchildren, if if there's still a world, they will probably see that. Okay? But that's what so just do that math, people, and stop listening to these people on Twitter who just hawk nonsense because, you know, views.
[00:23:51] Kenshin:
Yeah. It's about lowering your time preference. Right? So whatever you get now is gonna be worth a lot if you have a low time preference, and then you use that whenever the value is at the point you can use. So there's always a point where Bitcoin will be generational wealth. Yes.
[00:24:13] McIntosh:
But it's just a matter of when. Right? Yeah. We think just because somebody bought a thousand Bitcoin ten years ago maybe, and now they're generationally set. And they've, you know, they've spent a lot of it, but there's still enough left. That that might work for us. You're not buying a thousand Bitcoin. That's what they did. Right? I I don't know. I don't know what else to say about that. We just probably need to move on. But, yeah, I that that's my rant for the week. I try not to do those. I'm actually successful most of the time. But, man, literally point o 1% or one Bitcoin.
Just buy Bitcoin, people. DCA, just like you would any other investment if you're smart. Alright. Sorry. Where were we at math? Yeah. So I really do view this as the institutions are actually late to the game at this point, and that's a good thing. So you as a pleb, so what? 95% of it is available. That's what that means. The price is set at a 109,000 $110,000 roughly. Okay. That's great. We've got 95% mined, and it's still only a $100,000. So grab it while you can. Does that make sense? Because the institutions, whether that's ETFs, or strategy or whomever, they're they're gonna keep buying.
[00:25:57] Kenshin:
Yeah. Yeah.
[00:26:00] McIntosh:
And, yeah, Sailor has half a million. Mhmm. That's quite impressive buying from He actually has a $20.20. That's his company. He personally actually has a fair amount himself. You know, which he says, you know, he's not married. He has no kids. He's at the age where he's not going to have any kids. He says that's just gonna be gone, burned, whatever when he dies. So I don't believe you. Well That's okay. Maybe he donates it some to some causes, causes, but I think, frankly, he does believe in Bitcoin so strongly. You may not agree with him, and there are things I don't agree with him on, certainly. But he believes in Bitcoin so strongly. He just that's his way of giving back to the community.
I don't know. We'll see. He's older than I am, so maybe he'll, we'll see. I I might see. Sorry. That's I don't know. He has been he has been fighting the community more than helping it. It seems like like it lately. Maybe we can talk about that another time. Yeah. I think he has kinda shifted his views a little bit. But yeah. But that's okay. Bitcoin is for friends and enemies. Right? Alright. So let's talk about one of the more obvious aspects here, and this is one of the things that freaks the miners out. So I've got some skin in this game, so I certainly thought about this.
So as we transition through these four year cycles and the block reward gets smaller, what does that do to the miners? They are competing for fewer and fewer Bitcoin. When we went from six point oh god. 6.25. I need a chart, Kenjin. I just need it because it catches me every time. 6.25 down to 3.125. I hope that's right regardless.
[00:28:00] Kenshin:
It is. Yeah.
[00:28:02] McIntosh:
What did we see to the price? It did not double the day after that, unfortunately. I wished it would have. This always takes time. It's a trailing indicator if you wanna call it that. The block reward change happens here, and then the price ends up doubling maybe maybe six months afterwards, maybe a year. I don't know. Bitcoin does what Bitcoin wants to. You can't even though that is definitely the driving factor of that, you cannot just expect that price just to to to double overnight. And this is hard on miners. It will be harder on miners as we get to smaller and smaller amounts, especially if transactions don't pick up. Now, what do I mean?
For months, we have had very low volume on the Bitcoin network. Alright? On the main net, the Lightning Network has been growing by leaps and bounds. But the main net, the transaction volume is minuscule. We've had literally blocks be mined that were almost empty other than the block reward. No transactions. I don't want to say that they were empty because maybe there was something, but they were very, very low. The idea from the start has been as the block size reward goes down, the Bitcoin network traffic picks up. Those transactions generate fees which are paid to the miners. So they're making a reward from that. They're making a reward from the block itself.
If the price of Bitcoin doesn't escalate dramatically, those transactions are going to become very, very important in the next few cycles. Maybe not this cycle, maybe not next cycle, but I certainly could see the next four year cycle whenever that would be those transactions being super important to the miners. So what happens then? Well, I don't know. One speculation that I have is simply that thins out the public miners.
[00:30:29] Kenshin:
Mhmm. I could could
[00:30:31] McIntosh:
Right now, you've got people who are diluting their stock, making millions and millions and millions of dollars doing the financial shenanigans of a public company, and that can't continue. I don't think it will. I think we will see dramatic changes in the public Bitcoin mining space, and I'm okay with that. I am okay with the mining moving more into a pleb centralized view. Not necessarily home miners like what Kenshin like what you have. They're not powerful enough. But I do think we will see small operators, and there are a lot of them, take more predominant positions because they're not so much worried. Well, for one thing, they can't sell a stock and dilute the stock and whatever and make money like that.
Like, what do they call it? ATM at the market, which yeah. I mean, it sounds like ATM, a money machine, and that's literally what it is. They're just going in there and pulling money, and it comes out of the stock of the people who hold the stock. They're diluting their stock. Sorry. If I didn't get that quite right, I apologize, But it's just a mechanism for them to generate money at the it hurts their stockholders. Small miners can't do that. They have to be competitive in other ways in getting electrical sources that are a large company would have no interest in.
Not maintaining a large, employee a a number of employees. Not that, you know, Bitcoin mining companies have huge numbers of employees, but they certainly do. They have people who every one of those is is a salary and all of that kind of stuff. So I would love to see this shift back more. I would love to see it where I could take an ASIC of some kind. Here's here's one of the things I think is look. I'm just gonna speculate for just a and we'll get back on track. The six right now are at three nanometers. We are approaching the theoretical limits of physics in building these chips.
We're not going to get down to one nanometer unless there's just some huge breakthrough. And that means the efficiency of these machines is not going to continue to make the dramatic changes that it has over the last however long it's been ten years or so. Okay? But what one thing that they could do, let's build an ASIC. Let's build a machine similar to yours, Kenshin, but much more powerful. Why not a 100 terahash instead of two Terahash or four Terahash? Does that sound interesting to you?
[00:33:43] Kenshin:
No. Okay.
[00:33:46] McIntosh:
As you can tell, we did not pre plan this question. No. Why not?
[00:33:51] Kenshin:
Because if I can buy that, that means the professional miner can buy a 100 x.
[00:33:58] McIntosh:
I don't think they do. Now. I literally think we are we are starting to approach the limits. So bit, Bitmain just put out the machine. Well, they're talking about it. Excuse me. It will not be released. I think they said first quarter of twenty twenty six, which sounds about right, about six months out. One Petahash. That's 1,000 Terahash. Okay? That is only hold on. That is only 10 times faster than the the s nineteens that I'm about to get back. The three that I'm about to get back, they're a 100 and a 120 terahash. That's only 10 times faster, which it is a lot.
But if I could take one of those s nineteens and plug it into the wall of my house and not kill my electricity, I would do that. If it's efficient enough to let me do that inside my house without and on regular voltage, not the higher voltage that they run now, I would do that because I've got a machine that's sitting there doing two things. It is supporting the network, and is providing a stream of income. Maybe not a huge amount, and maybe it just goes to a wallet that sits there, you know, in perpetuity, as I say. Right?
But it is generating an income that one day might become very, very, a lot. Very, very useful. Right? Yeah. I think that type of thing might help decentralize at least as much as I believe that these little tiny home miners are going to build this kind of stuff. Look, build it into your heating system, into your hot water heater, into your sauna, like, send it Mike is talking about into your swimming pool, de icing your sidewalk when you live in Sweden. Just saying. Right? Wherever you need heat, running a greenhouse, all of these things with the right tools in the right place, they can be generating sats and supporting the network and decentralizing the network.
So as I'm not worried about Riot going bankrupt and going out of business. That's a huge part of the network. People will pick it up. We need to move on. I've probably talked about that too long already. But, yeah, I a lot of these pub public let me summarize it this way. A lot of these public miners are kind of freaked out about the whole transactions thing. I do think transactions will pick up as Bitcoin adoption takes place. When The United States sends a payment to China for whatever reason and vice versa, they're not doing that over lightning. Lightning cannot handle millions of dollars in a single payment.
It cannot. The nodes between don't they can't route it. It's too big. There will still be traffic on the main net. And as nation states adopt this and large companies and so on and so I do believe that traffic will pick up even though the plebs are using the lightning network for peer to peer transactions a lot.
[00:37:30] Kenshin:
But, honestly, I would be interested to make some math on this. Maybe I can do it until next time Okay. To calculate the block reward plus the transaction fees. And we get this in mempool. We get the total amount Mhmm. Per block. Sure. And get the value of that in dollar terms Yep. Over
[00:37:51] McIntosh:
over time. The problem with that is there's an there is a corresponding I think you'll see a drop in the number of transactions over time, especially over the last several years.
[00:38:03] Kenshin:
Yes. Sure. But still, it will be interesting to see with the value of Bitcoin going up. Yes. What does that translate in real
[00:38:13] McIntosh:
dollar terms? Yep. Let's if you can, let's take a look at that. That sounds like a great, follow-up.
[00:38:19] Kenshin:
Because it feels like, yeah, professional miners are getting more and more into it. So it still feels like there is a good business for them.
[00:38:30] McIntosh:
I I actually disagree. What we are seeing is the institutional miners are starting to pivot to high performance computing, what they call high performance computing. In other words, AI. The one stock that I personally own, I've said this on the show before. I bought it multiple years ago. A bit farms. They're a public Bitcoin miner up in Ontario, and they have sites elsewhere. What are they doing? They're pivoting into HPC because they've diluted the market with their ATM crap, and now they're just they're moving on to something else. Right. I think, ultimately, we'll see that with every one of these public mining companies because it's too hard to make the kind of money that they want to make with the margins that you have in Bitcoin.
Mining, I should say. Does that make sense? Now I may be wrong. Hopefully, I'm not because I think it's a better world for us if there's fewer public miners.
[00:39:40] Kenshin:
Yeah. I agree. I would like to see that. I would like to see the house rate go down also. But so far,
[00:39:46] McIntosh:
it keeps going up in the street line. You're right. Hit a new all time high supposedly recently. But Yeah. Yep. You know what? It doesn't matter. You as a pleb don't actually have to mind to benefit from what we're talking about. Right now, 95% of the supply is out there available. The price, certainly compared to where it will be in the long term, is super low. So StackSats, you don't have to go buy a miner. If you wanna do something like what Send It Mike is talking about or what I do, that's terrific. But let me give you a little clue, ladies and gentlemen. I would have been better off buying Bitcoin upfront than mining it, at least so far. Yes.
And I knew that going into it. Yeah. I walked into this with my eyes wide open. I do have a skill set for this, and there's side benefits and whatever. But the reality is in almost every case, you could just take a lump sum and buy Bitcoin or DCA it and do better off than you can mining.
[00:40:53] Kenshin:
Yeah. I was about to say the same exact thing. Mhmm. You need to make the math. How much if you see a price for a Bitcoin miner and you buy Bitcoin with that amount instead of the miner because you will never make that money from the miner. But I will tell you this as well.
[00:41:10] McIntosh:
I don't depend on my Bitcoin mining to for my total supply of Bitcoin. I do DCA just like I tell you to do. I tell people, yes, I DCA with my mining, and that is truth. There is truth to that. These days with Ocean almost every day. In fact, for the last month, we did get a block every day, and I get a reward from that. But I have another strike, which I talk about. I do, weekly. I do have my money where my mouth is. Alright. Let's wrap this up so you can get off to bed and get you some honey. Need to get you some honey.
[00:41:46] Kenshin:
I have fresh honey, raw honey from our bees.
[00:41:50] McIntosh:
So I will do that. Wait. You have bees?
[00:41:53] Kenshin:
Yeah. My wife. Kenshin. I don't go close to them. I have what?
[00:41:58] McIntosh:
Alright. I've got questions for next week.
[00:42:01] Kenshin:
I will tell you. It's very interesting, actually. Like, I will tell you what we have.
[00:42:08] McIntosh:
Okay. Yeah. We really do need to get so, look, this is actually a really good thing for you as a pleb. The miner rewards decrease. I believe we're gonna see some of these public companies fail. We will see. Maybe. I think it will take another ten years or more for this all to work out. In the meantime, StackSats. One way or the other, the Bitcoin network is going to work. If they all fail, it will still work. I promise you. Yes. You've already mentioned this long term versus short term thinking. Stop thinking about it even in terms of a four year cycle, ladies and gentlemen, and you will be better off. Mhmm. Okay? Absolutely.
Am I too late? Nope. Should you be mining instead? That is strictly up to you. As I just told you, you'd probably be better off buying your Bitcoin. What about lost Bitcoin? What about lost Bitcoin? What about Satoshi's Bitcoin? Theoretically, it's possible that one. Day no. It's not even theoretical. It's possible one day he could say, you know what? I'm going to take a 100 of this and go do something, or I don't know. Maybe he would take all of it. You know what would happen? The market would dump, and I would buy more Bitcoin. Would you do that, Kenshin?
[00:43:28] Kenshin:
Yeah. Absolutely.
[00:43:29] McIntosh:
Because it will clear itself out a million Bitcoin in terms of 19,700,000.0 or whatever it was. Yeah. 19.7. It's not half of it. It's like, yeah, it's like 5%. Whatever. So stop worrying about things like that. Stop. Just stop. Yeah. Will fees make Bitcoin unusable? Nope. Will not. No. We have lightning networks. Look. We've already seen what happens when the network gets filled. Thanks, ordinals. Those fees were kind there were times when they were kinda stupid. I don't see that for a while at least being a long a long term issue. The Lightning Network is available. They're building out things like ARC that will help with this as well. There's other stuff going on that will empower the network. I believe we will always have a way to make cheap, simple transactions with Bitcoin.
I don't see that changing anytime soon, even if it's not the lightning or, excuse me, the main net. Alright. What's our action item? I don't know. Set up a DCA if you don't have one. There's a start. I I don't know. I do want to, actually promote two weeks from now. We've got an episode coming up. We will be doing it live just like we've been doing these others. And just like we did three months ago, it will be your questions. So start boosting in those questions or zapping the let's see. How do we do this, Kenshin? We've had people zap them is what we've been doing. Right?
[00:45:14] Kenshin:
So we post something Zapathon. Yeah. Actually, we do Zapathon.
[00:45:18] McIntosh:
So don't listen to Mcintosh because he never knows what he's talking about, what he just said. We're gonna do a Zapathon, and, we're gonna collect up questions and whatever and and do that episode. That was a well received episode. I thought that went very well. Yeah. Okay. I do not have a question this week except, does any of y'all besides Kenshin, keep up with honeybees?
[00:45:46] Kenshin:
Mhmm. If you want to hear how we collect honey, ask. Then I can tell on the podcast.
[00:45:53] McIntosh:
What's that? Sorry.
[00:45:55] Kenshin:
If they're curious how I collect bees. I'm curious. Honey. Yeah. I I will tell you offline. I will not take time here about this. I'm sorry. Curious that there's somebody out there. That wants to hear that. Y'all need to boost in. Come on. Yeah. Alright.
[00:46:09] McIntosh:
News and notes, not a whole lot. I did wanna mention a few things. A very modest schedule release change. You're good with this. Right, Kinshoon? Yep. Okay. Because we're doing this live, I'm gonna start pushing these out sooner rather than Friday morning at 2AM, my time, whatever that works out, seven 9AM your time. Eight. I'm not sure. Sorry. Time. Hard. Okay. So what you're gonna start seeing is this episode will probably come out roughly the same time, but it may be a little earlier. I do not have an opportunity on Wednesday nights my time to to get it ready. So it it has to be Thursday nights, but I will start pushing it out as soon as I get it done. And maybe occasionally it gets done even sooner than that. But, yeah, it just made more sense.
I did wanna mention there was a conference in Barcelona, and I know one of our listeners actually went. I'm hoping, and I don't wanna out them, but I'm hoping they boost in and let us know about it. From what I saw that they posted on Noster, it seemed to be a fairly well organized and run conference. It was called the Barcelona Cipher Conference. I believe it was all about Bitcoin. It was certainly kind of smaller, more regional. And selfishly, this is the kind of thing that I would love to promote because it's the kind of thing I would like to see in my area. I do not live in Barcelona or anywhere near there, but I'm really kind of over these big conferences.
I literally heard somebody on a podcast this week talking about the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas saying that they got charged. It was like $20 for a bottle of water. I'm like, this is ridiculous. Wow. Yes. I think it was a liter. I mean, it was probably a little larger than normal. I think he literally said it was a one liter bottle of water, and I think he said it was 18. It's just insane. I would love to see smaller conferences, smaller venues, more technical content, more ability for people to mingle and interact and network and form friendships and so on.
And I think it sounds like that's kind of what went on here, And I would love for our listener who went if they could boost in and maybe give us a little report or send us something on Noster if you specifically say you could just DM me on Noster or post it on the Satoshi Plaid page. We'll read it on the air. Okay? We had some more issues with CoinOS. I'm beginning to think that maybe that's not a good place to be keeping our Satoshis. I'm not sure it wasn't related to the So they were hacked, essentially, back in January. They were hacked. But they had an issue, where auto payments were, like, getting set up and sending money to an address that was not the person's address. They it did not affect us. We do keep a small amount of money on Coin OS, but I am seriously thinking about just moving away from it.
Unfortunately, these things happen, but, something to be aware of. A couple of things on Twitter real quick. I saw this awesome post. I'm just gonna mention this. Argentina has cut government spending by a That's $2,000,000,000,000 in US terms, which is a lot of money. They've laid off 48,000 government workers, which would be half a million in US terms. We've done none of these things in terms of The US. With all the Doge stuff going on. Not even close. I think they've cut $300,000,000,000, I believe, roughly in terms of spending with all the Doge stuff that everybody's lost their minds over. And number of people, I I bet it's not even a 100 mill a 100,000.
So now they are one of the fastest growing economies in the world. They've got 8% growth. I believe that's year over year, going on right now. I I just that Argentina, I have reported about for a long time, and I'm just so happy to see what's going on there. I wish I could go down there. It doesn't look like I can go anytime soon, but, man, I am so happy for the people in Argentina. And, gosh, I wish we could, like, take your president and move him up here. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Bitcoin's been running for six thousand days. It's already spent 60 of them or 1% of its life above a 100,000 US dollars.
Oh. Yep.
[00:51:20] Kenshin:
That's a fun stat. But it's volatile. Where do you find that stat?
[00:51:25] McIntosh:
On Twitter. This is why I stay on Twitter because occasionally there is stuff that's that's good. Yep. Yep. Pretty cool. We did wanna mention did you update? You must have. 06/11/2025 as we record our Bitcoin price is $1.00 8, 700 USD and €94,600. Last June, it was 67,317. We are up a sweet 61.41% in the last year. Our Bitcoin market cap, $2,200,000,000,000 USD. We creep up higher. Our gold market cap, 23,300,000,000,000.0. So Bitcoin versus gold, 9.3 percent, which is up by point 4% from last week. Two sets per v byte to send a transaction over that main network and only 15 megabytes of unprocessed transactions, about 7,200 transactions.
Satoshi's bleb is a value for value podcast, supporting podcast two point o. No ads, no sponsorships, just honest Bitcoin content. And I do deliberately avoid sponsors because even if I love a company, taking their money could influence my opinions. What if something goes wrong with that company? I might hesitate to warn you, and we've talked about that in different ways over the years. Instead, I ask, are you getting value from this show? Support it through time, talent, or treasure. Help with chapters, transcripts, or future projects like our chat room. You can stream sets, boost with messages, even just a 100 sets saying great show or use suck. I read them all on the air, and I have done so.
Check out podcasting 2.0 apps at podcastapps.com and support independent Bitcoin media. If you like the content, I would love it if you would tell your friends about this podcast. That is the best way for us to grow. And by the way, this week's music is live for tomorrow by whoo, I hope I don't blow this, Kazuki, Takajae. Any boost or streaming of sats from podcasting two point o apps will go straight to the audit artists during that song. I love this song. It is like a heavy metal instrumental. Who could I compare him to real quick? I can't fit, man. I had it, and I I don't remember.
Thanks for being here. I hope this has been helpful. You're changing this while I'm reading. We'd love to hear from you. Find all our contact info at satoshis dash plebs dot com slash episode dash two one three. Stay humble. DCA some sats. Love the change, though. And have a great weekend. We'll talk to you all soon.
[00:54:21] Kenshin:
Have a nice weekend. Bye bye.
Introduction
Understanding Bitcoin's Supply Dynamics
The Halving Mechanism and Its Impact
Early Bitcoin Adoption and Institutional Involvement
Bitcoin Ownership Distribution
Institutional Entry and Bitcoin Pricing
Challenges for Bitcoin Miners
Future of Bitcoin Mining and Decentralization
Strategies for Plebs in the Bitcoin Market
Conference Highlights and Community Engagement