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Will Juan's insanely ambitious predictions come true (likely) and why is he so sure (backed by evidence)?

In Episode #476 of Musings, Juan and I discuss: the rapid advancements in AI (drawing from his past experiences in AI sales and chatbot implementations), the slow progress of autonomous Haul Trucks I saw in the mining industry, .Juan's prediction that unemployment rates will more than double by the end of 2026, robotic process automation (RPA) and its potential to replace repetitive tasks traditionally done by humans, the types of drones, vehicles & machines we are likely to start noticing in every day life and why the whole 'job' narrative is stupid anyway.

Huge thanks to Cole for the support this week, it is very much appreciated!

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:01:36) Juan's AI Experience & Predictions
(00:07:11) Unemployment Predictions For 2026
(00:17:08) Impact on White Collar Jobs
(00:27:04) Blue Collar Jobs and Automation
(00:33:49) Boostagram Lounge
(00:41:07) Mining Industry Autonomous Vehicle Adoption
(00:46:03) Factory Automation & Job Displacement
(00:56:02) Future of Work & AI Integration
(01:01:17) Drones & Military Applications
(01:10:06) Summary Of Future Economic/Social Implications
(01:18:16) V4V: Time/Talent/Treasure

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[00:00:06] Juan Granados:

Welcome   Mere Mortalites, welcome back. It is the dawn of the robots   today in Musings.   We here at the Mere Mortals like to have conversations, deep philosophical thoughts with a lighthearted touch. I will try and keep it with a bit of lighthearted touch today, but it might get pretty deep, might get in the weeds. I've got a few numbers as usual. It'll be Juan talking straight out his ass. We'll see how close we get to reality. You've got Juan on this side. And Kyrin here live. We come live at 9AM usually the 02/16/2025.   And this particular topic, so Dawn of the Robots. I made a comment slightly offhand, but it still was to my, I guess, idea and thoughts.  

Was the last episode or? The episode was, I can't remember if it was in the actual episode or if it was after. It was during the episode. Okay. Yep. There we go. Because Karen in that particular episode said, I totally disagree with that comment. And then I said afterwards, I was talking about   the Optimus robots and using them to leverage and stuff like that. So   this is gonna be an interesting one because off the bat, I won't leave people hanging. So I mentioned this in a couple of places.   There is a plot twist to what I'm about to say with the dawn of the robots and what's going to happen in the job market in 2026. So I won't keep it hanging. You'll get that before the blue screen launch. I'll reveal that. But I want   to set my context just to see if Karan sort of agrees or disagrees with what's going on. Because my context for this was  

[00:01:27] Kyrin Down:

one one was saying there's going to be like big changes 2026.   I robots will be a thing. Correct. Correct.  

[00:01:36] Juan Granados:

So that was that was all I let me let me set some let me set some context for for people at home, because you might be sitting there or you're listening to me and you go, what the hell does one know about AI? And the answer is very little. Very, very little. However, I think I've I've I've went past the crest originally   a long time ago of thinking that I knew a lot and I'm going over the hump into like, hey, I know that I don't know a lot. However,   I was mucking around and trying to sell AI,   AI implementations   to business in 2016.  

I was co Australia lead for a particular company to doing AI sales. Since then I've been doing chatbots implementation solutions,   never the technical side. Let me be clear. I'm not definitely in the techy side of things. But I understand the concept of what used to be called in Australia and globally, what it was referred to as you wanna,   upskill or up chain the value of your employees with the utilization of AI and chatbots and RPA. So I'm talking about the dawn of the robots. Yes.   I will refer to the Optimus and the usage of like genius robots. I don't even know what that is. So Optimus is a robot like a full robotic humanoid   that Tesla  

[00:02:47] Kyrin Down:

is creating. Okay yeah I missed that.  

[00:02:50] Juan Granados:

Then I saw snippets of that announcement or something. I think it's been around   for two years, but it's not until recently that it's become quite good. There's   at the moment, this particular time of the year, there's a lot of clips have been coming out the last couple of weeks of Optimus dancing in the different styles of different sports. Like Christiano Ronaldo doing this solo. Correct, correct. So like I wouldn't say right now where we stand, the robots are gonna be taking over anything, but they're gonna get close. They're gonna get close and they're speeding up. So robots in this context, we're talking about, there's a whole variety of   RPA, robotic process automation.  

That is a huge part, it's gonna take over a lot of roles. That's   kind of a similar wording for just using algorithms to take over other jobs. So   some, you could, this is where I guess the wording of some things get confusing again, this is a sales marketing type of style, you can call it RPA robotic process automation, color of things. Basically, imagine something that you just do on a computer,   and you want to like do a task, if you've got a computer to do it for you, whether it's from an algorithm, whether it's doing it through a script, whether it's doing it from other price automation, all this is it's not you   doing that process automatically. Let's just leave it at that. So,   deep   search on ChargeUp, OpenAI,   which goes off and does a few a whole loads of reset for you and it seems to throw in, like, a chain of reasoning.  

You could call that up here in some way because it is doing a lot of processes, which you would then go do, but it's doing it automated.   You could go on create a script that would do that for you as well, but then you'd have to put the raw inputs for it to actually go do that. So   that aspects of that is falling into my conversation of, hey, 2026,   we're gonna see some of these coming to fruition. And the so actually, I won't get into my reasons. I'll just, I'll state some   things. There's that, then there's the evolution of proper robotics, who's going to get offset, what are the sort of roles they're going to get away, those sort of things. And then there's like futuristic like, oh my God, there's   we're talking about it with   the blue collar and white collar. So jobs being offset. So yeah,  

[00:04:56] Kyrin Down:

there's that do count.   So   is a computer a robot, for example, because, you know, it's it's taken a job, for example, that used to be, you know, people using abacusis and   mental math and shit to figure out taxes handwriting stuff down.   A computer has taken away that job, does that therefore make it a robot? It's weird. I think that some people could define it as being  

[00:05:20] Juan Granados:

robot.   At the face of it. Like I'm not even gonna look up the definition kind of feels like no, it's not. But then if you think of a   robot, like a humanoid robot, let's just say it is for all intents and purposes, lots of computer parts and computer chips,   then   leveraging   some sort of   non humanoid   material to go and do things.   So,   like, maybe in some definitions, you could cut term it as robot like robot, if I look at a computer right now, I'd be like, that's not a right, no way. Yeah, I'd say that's more a machine much like  

[00:05:54] Kyrin Down:

jobs were taken by, you know, the steel mills rolling big rolling pins or shit, you know, just things that were automated.   They were mechanical things.   I wouldn't call it a robot per se. But it was certainly a machine that   now bends iron pipes where you used to have to do that by hand, or flattens things   or, you know, bends things, whatever it is that, you know, those, those machines do even sorting machines like   you've seen those videos of   the tomatoes where there's like red tomatoes and the kind of ripe ones,  

[00:06:29] Juan Granados:

the unripe. Yeah, but they're just like the green ones where it's like, yeah, it's just like little paddles and it's just hitting them super quick and all these scanners. So look, by the definition and I that's why I don't actually agree with the definition, but robotic post automation   has robots in it, is a software technology that uses automation to perform repetitive tasks. So   like, I get it, but I don't know if I would classify that in like the robot sense. Yeah. I would definitely classify it as machine. For sure machine. Maybe we should have labeled this something like autonomous robots instead of just robot. Yeah. That's right. More catchy title. I like I like it. So then,   that's my   my intro to I guess the the process of the definition. Now now why 2026?  

Right. I'm gonna, I'll lay this all out and then we can get into some other reasons. Right. So   right now, so   the basis of why I think the change is going to come is going to I'm going to use the stat of unemployment rate. The unemployment rate, I think it sits today in Australia at around three ish percent.   Globally, it's about 5%. Right? My call out   is, I think that number   will more than double by the end of twenty twenty six. Right? More than double. Right? If you get if you wanna be specific,   this is my call out of terms of numbers. I think that by the end of twenty twenty six Australia,   we're gonna see   1010% unemployment rate   and impact globally  

[00:07:53] Kyrin Down:

10% as well. Okay, right. How much variation comes   in unemployment rate from things like recessions and stuff? Because you know, you could be right on this metric, but for the past It has been between three to four and a bit percent for like two years. Yeah. However, so, and so,  

[00:08:08] Juan Granados:

my backing proof of these numbers and   then I'll get into my plot twist on it. So the, my backing numbers is,   COVID.   Just before COVID, unemployment rate in Australia was 5.2.   The peak of unemployment rate in Australia was seven and a half percent.   Although I actually think it got even higher for a short period of time. Globally it was 3.5%   and it got up to 14%.   Now that was in a period of between five, like two to five months, all of those things happened, right? So from a rate of change perspective,   globally and it's Australia wide, COVID itself changed that really dramatically quickly   for a short period of time. It wasn't, again, we're talking about today, it's three and a bit percent.  

So back then in COVID, you know, obviously big dramatic effects, but for a short period of time, I think it was like in two to five months and then for an extended couple of months, unemployment rate jumped, right? It was like quick transition, people weren't ready. If you want the rate of change, it was like 0.45%   per month. That's how it really I'm sort of suggesting I see it not as dramatic as COVID   but at a 0.2, zero point three percent per month type of change where we're right now, again, 3.5%, four % in Australia. I could see that bumping up all the way to ten percent by the end of twenty twenty six. Here's my plot twist though. Here's my plot twist. And then we'll get Plot twist. Pretty early. The plot twist, because I'll be able to get it just to this. Now I've been saying it in a couple of places. My plot twist is,   I think eventually,   this is my underlying theory. I think eventually   a lot of the AI usage and robots and whatnot will create even more jobs   than are available today, even more jobs.  

So net look twenty years into the future, I think it's not going to be a thing where oh shit none of us have the jobs, I think it'll be more, no, now there's ample opportunity elsewhere to do our commute of different things or choose not to because of whatever efficiencies are gained, but in the short term and I'm looking at end of twenty twenty six,   I don't think Humana is going to change fast enough   both in well in education   and the speed of changing the way that we are, do the jobs that we do and there's probably going to be power collected in like a set few   individuals, entities, governments, whatever it may be that it'll be a more gradual change towards that not as a speedy change. So my whole,   hypothesis here is that robots, becoming better both all the way from AI interactions to machines, whatever else and by the tail end of 2026, it'll offset   so many jobs that it'll increase the unemployment rate and that   that maybe and a few other things is probably what will trigger a lot of governments and a lot of places to go like oh like we've got to do something here like people are not being hired and then it'll start this chain of new jobs, new education, people starting to pivot towards there. But   that's my underlying theory set by unemployment rate, Dawn of the Robots, it's coming to you, it's going to take over in 2026 and then be okay by 2028.  



[00:11:04] Kyrin Down:

It'll be something like that. So   a couple of things to add would probably be, you know, these metrics are   are rough ones. So,   for example,   the data itself is probably skew if I   honestly have no idea whether I count as unemployed or not, because   I'm not looking for work. Does that make me therefore unemployed? Depends on what you put on the census.   You know, and and there's a good thing. When was the last census done? I don't remember doing one for quite a while. So yeah, there's this data that you're saying, Well, it's not on the census, obviously, because it's true. It's actually it's more frequent.   We can have a look, where do they pull unemployment on? Obviously, I don't think it really matters because, you know, I'm just an individual case, obviously,   a rare case, especially unique   case, in some regards, but   it's reflective of society   in whole.  

But the the numbers look that   I'm very distrustful of a lot of statistics. You think it'd be higher than employment rate?   Yeah. So this is what I'm getting at like it.   It's the the numbers are just reflective of a change. And so they whether the changes,   you know, you're measuring dodgy stuff, but if you if you continually   measure the dodgy stuff correctly,   then it's still indicative of something even if the underlying basis is,   you know, that that's okay. So   even if it is like a big recession that causes something,   I think it's and that's the main driver of like unemployment. And we're looking at this and   end of twenty twenty six, we're like, holy shit, one's one's right or one's wrong. But   because it's for this reason, I think it'd be more like a good indication would be okay, the unemployment rate has risen and   there is at least some talk of it being due   to this thing. Yeah. Because I've lost my job. And it's like this. Yeah. Now I've got a whole   my whole meta thing is like, I think jobs are a terrible metric for a lot of   things like this. Just like GDP is such a,   is not completely useless. But   if an AI can create a full feature film,   and so   that's just all being done digitally, none of that's getting collected as GDP,   other than maybe, you know, the electricity for it to,   to create that   Is GDP a great metric for a nation's success, for example, or something like that? You know, probably not. But all of this is, I guess, is getting just into   we're just talking more about the trend, not not the hard, hard data. True. Yeah. This is this. I think yeah, my my my thesis is not not the inversion of Wands. I don't think that we're going to have more,   more jobs.  

It's just   my optimism or my enthusiasm is certainly not as great as once I don't think the rate of change in effect will be that big. This rate of change, do you expect that you're saying like point 23% per month or something like this? Do you actually expect it to be, you know, zero point zero zero one zero point zero zero zero one. And then it's just an exponential thing,   like a week, sometime,  

[00:14:17] Juan Granados:

where it does explode really quickly over a couple of month period? No, I don't think it'll be a week like that but I do think it'll be a very gradual from where we are today for a few months, let's say the whole year and then it'll start up ticking but not in like a hey January 2022, the six companies like off we go like unemployment rate just skyrockets   because I think the uptake of some of those technology and users will still be even though it'll be present it will still take a while for implementation and it's leveraging to do what I guess what I'm saying is right now where we stand today   there's enough   easily available technology to most people and businesses out there that it's beginning now. Like, it's beginning now where companies are starting to offset a large amount of people.  

You've seen this in Meta. You've seen this in Alphabet. I've seen this in loads of companies who work in The Philippines   offshore,   places.   They're doing it like they're lying off thousands and thousands of people in some of these companies. Fantastic. It's beginning.   How much are they,   bringing back in terms of individuals? Probably a few but a lot of that is being leveraged with existing software.   What I start to see is, okay,   these extra individuals into the market are going to come, let's just say over the next   six months and it's after that sort of time where it'll start being like oh these people who've previously   we've been looking for software developers, let's just say specifically for one role,   there's not that many anymore. There was a graph,   I I don't know exactly where I see I could probably pull it up. But it was saying the it was like the ratio of   individuals looking for the role of software development and the roles that were available.  

Pre 2021.   It was quite low. It was like that's its lowest ratio,   which peaked through COVID and a little bit afterwards, it was like a peak of people looking for software developers in particular and people who are available for that particular role and now have actually decreased all the way back down to what they were in pre-twenty twenty one. So in like, oh sorry, pre even before then. So   in a bit of like a number sense it's, oh now once again there's a influx of people   who want to get that particular job or after that role   but a lack of   people actually wanting to hire for that particular role. Now, I don't know if it's all because   AI is replacing those, it's all because   maybe there's other reasons like people are,   downsizing some of the employees that they have out of network and for whatever that that underlying basis is. But there's   I think there's enough   things and reasons and   like actions that are taking place at the moment where I go, Yep, I could see it impacting it a little bit heavier in a few months time, and then gradually going up. So to your question of I think it'll be like, you know, five point zero five point zero five, then point one, then point one point two point three point four point four point four point four point four point four point four. I mean, to that effect. What do you imagine  

[00:17:12] Kyrin Down:

these these jobs are coming from? So you kind of it's on kind of sounds like it's more the white collar,   ie,   the intellectual work that   do you imagine any blue collar   work going? And   why why these particular jobs and   which which ones are safe one?   Those at home, they're like, shit, robots gonna take my job, the AI is going to take my job probably is a better way of saying it.   Which which ones are  

[00:17:43] Juan Granados:

safer. I was gonna say I feel like. Or  

[00:17:47] Kyrin Down:

and safe safer is even a shit word because it's like implies that having that job is good.  

[00:17:53] Juan Granados:

I think I disagree with it I think short term   any any roles out there that require   a human to basically go   input   do a process   take an action output without   like really deep   chain thinking,  

[00:18:10] Kyrin Down:

it's fucked, you're completely fucked. Some of the things I've seen are within one of the companies. So would this be someone who, for example, doesn't even move from their computer all day? So for example, as surveyors   in the mine site I used to work to, they'd spend   a lot of their day   at the computer importing the data that they've just collected from a scan,   and having to sort out, okay, that that data point in there is just rubbish one that was bouncing off a piece of dust or something like get rid of that. Otherwise, it would draw a fucking like triangles in the middle of nowhere. And it's like, well, that's not that's not accurate.   But they do spend a lot of time   at their computer as well, just manually  

[00:18:54] Juan Granados:

sorting through a bunch of shit and going like, yeah, that's good. That's not good. Yeah, I think look in the real short term. Absolutely destroying like there's so many surveys out there who are like, fuck you guys. I Kyne. That's not a good description. In the super short term it's whatever especially the jobs that   the implementation   effort to offset what they're doing is really easy like a low threshold   for sure like man they're gonna go like a whole case. An example here is a low level usage of lawyers.   So   years ago, if you wanted to do anything from a legal perspective and that was draft up contracts, draft up,   any binding monetary movement and all that sort of stuff,   You could always go to a legal counsel or some something like that to help you out to do that because generally it wasn't accessible unless you had the legal nows for it.  

At least in Australia, there's a lot of, maybe just pick a company, it's more global than that but like Lawpath, there's others as well that allow this, is an online way to get access to   Eagle documents that have been reviewed, I guess, overall and you can get,   like a one to many support. So you can have one lawyer that they've got that supports   and twenty and fifty businesses. So that's a bit of a better model,   more efficient effective model, let's just say. But   the view that I see going even more   is, yeah, some aspects of the law path, at least like as a business I see, they're starting to leverage a lot more of, Hey, we'll just create documents based on all of our experience,   but just in AI. So they're not even using lawyers anymore, they're just basically going, Hey, you used to pay us a thousand dollars now you can pay us a hundred dollars a month and we'll just give you all these documents.  

But even in then there's   process progresses now that I've seen at least I've personally been using it and I've heard of it from,   what's his name? Chris Hacker on Tim Ferris as well talking about it where, you know, they're generating full legal documents and gigantic things. Now, who's reviewing this? How do you   reviewing this? How do you verify it? Again, it's a separate conversation but you can create these documents now, completely   leveraging AI   and there goes a lot of low level, maybe paralegal type roles gone like you don't need that, you don't need them anymore. So   again, two positions where you can do that. So you're talking about what happens to those jobs, it's twofold. It's what I think will eventually happen is they'll be pushed up the value chain somewhere else Which normally means okay well then they can just do verifications of more documents more quickly or they go to adjacent roles where they're more of a support person for the individual for other legal issues that are a little bit more nuanced or in person type things that you have to deal with with the existing system.  

But that won't happen   quickly enough to some regard. So a lot of,   I would be, I'll call it out, if I was graduating like law right now I would be scared, I'd be like I don't know how well I'm going to be finding a job in the next few years but maybe that will transition later down the track but I think it'll be,   sorry again for those roles, what I think will happen is it's going to become,   there will be roles for the really acutely great   high level individuals who are probably going to be hired by those few companies or people that need it fantastic and then for everyone else it'll be like yeah well we don't need you because we've replaced a hundred lawyers with two lawyers that are just great they can do all the reviews.  

[00:22:04] Kyrin Down:

How I kind of imagine it is,   I do agree, there's going to be big changes. So in comparison to 2015 to 2016, for example, if you looked at like a start to end of 2016,   I don't think it'll be a two year period like that. I definitely do think now is the period. And maybe after the boostgram launch, we'll talk about like, why now what in particular about now? Yeah, yeah, why we're even talking about why we think for this next two year period, there'll be change.   So, you know, comparison that, but   I would, I'd say just just from my meager time at working in a company and things like this,   the   propensity for getting rid of roles is   it definitely does happen.  

I went through   a survived a series of layoffs, I survived   two rounds of redundancies, actually, in fact,   go me.   Everyone loves the k dog.   The,   the and so like, there's no doubt, okay, jobs actually do go away at times.   I'm more hesitant to say that   it'll happen like really quick. I actually think that'll be more due to like, just a complete economic downturn and not in relation to actual   jobs being taken because of AI's and things like that. So I think, yeah, we'll see a lot of job losses in the next particularly 2026.   But it'll it'll melt and like, so much bleeding on fucking media about   oh, this is going this is like,   you know, massive roles that and like people bitching to their friends about, oh, my jaw got taken away from me.  

I think there'll be like a little bit of that, like that. That'll take the attention space. But the actual   big changes,   probably more what you were saying is   jobs that just aren't   being created or   filled   that used to be and I just already look at the company that you've got on the side, the side business.   And there's plenty of work that   two or three years ago, you would have had to have hired what, five extra people something for   Whereas now you don't need to because you've just got, you know, you need to chat GBT to create all these documents and stuff. So it's kind of like it's the hidden stuff   that doesn't get the that probably should be getting more attention. It's like, oh, got job creation is down,   not job losses up. That's probably the main important factor, but it's just like this this tiny one. Yeah, yeah.  

And then like contractors.   Yeah. That I'd be more worried if I was a contractor than a full time employee. I'd be more worried if it was   seasonal work than if it was just like a constant  

[00:24:43] Juan Granados:

thing. That's, yeah, that's an interesting, that's an interesting one that people say about, the full time versus contract. Because I would agree, but only in certain circumstances where if you're in a full time where it's generally like government based because your type of contract, the time  

[00:24:55] Kyrin Down:

is good you're so safe. However, however safe any government government job you're so safe. Any any full  

[00:25:01] Juan Granados:

time role you gotta remember any full time role is still just a contract that's what people I guess don't know or, like, don't really realize or don't think about is the difference between a contract and a full time role is the fact that a full time role is a contract without an with an undefined end date. But if it still be ended, like, it still be finished totally fine, which I think, I mean, does what happened again, Meta and Alphabet and all those places. They just well, time people who are getting and data on the contracts. Now they do get paid out by the companies to do they get like awesome severance pays redundancies  

[00:25:30] Kyrin Down:

is what that is. But   I remember   you talking about this guy, and it's still like, there's the shit that makes me angry.   Angry is not the right word, like resentful, almost where you're talking about a guy who works in the ATO   and he's just on some ridiculous, like old time contracts, which basically makes him unfireable.   And so he could just read magazines, refuse to do work   as long as he doesn't, you know, sexually assault people. Yeah, as long as he's not being extreme. It's like it's And so that still counts as a job and   therefore like   good, good thing employed  

[00:26:09] Juan Granados:

whereas there's actually no benefit to society and probably even draining productivity. Well, and I think some a good distinction to make. So, when I say the unemployment rate will be higher,   it doesn't   correlate to how much value the economy is going to be outputting because I think by the end of twenty twenty six and as we go, it's just going to be higher and higher and higher. It's just that humans, the meat suits, are going to be doing as much of it. It'll just be all be done by   Processors, Machines, Robots, all that sort of stuff and I think,   the white collar, yeah, the white collar roles will largely start to get taken away   in   the really good individuals to be left behind to kind of take care of these machines, if you will, and the others,   I don't know, go figure it. That's a separate conversation. There's lots of other things I can think about where it would come, but go find something else and then eventually blue collar stuff will come. Now,   you did, I will talk about robots, robot specifics.  

If you are an individual who is working on warehouses, packing away stuff,   that job is going to go. Like that is, that is for sure going to go, it's going to happen by the end of twenty twenty six, maybe. Amazon's already doing this to a lot of the big,   warehouses that they have. It's just automated. If you want to look at a lot of the Chinese ones, I think they've got robots both on floor and on the roof, the pack on ship stuff. There's no humans there, if humans maybe like looking after it, maybe like oil the ship. That's, you know, five people versus hundreds and hundreds of people that you would have in a factory.   There is   something more like that. Tell me, tell me how that will not continue. Yeah. So You tell me how in the world that will not be a pursuance. Unless,   again, calling out, unless China goes like full war with Taiwan and what's the company called? TSCM whatever it is in Taiwan, they do not produce any chips anymore. Yes. And then everyone's chips go to shit and there's a massive fart about that. Okay,   maybe that like honestly that's like the only place where I'm seeing this slowdown in any way shape or form. The export   limitations that are getting imposed on China, so most people understand what happened with DeepSeq and V3 and R1 and blah blah blah and basically a hedge fund that had lots of chips from way back in the day and maybe they're lying about how much they helped.  

They're not, they're like being limited by how much it's export and big big players in The U. S. Like Daria from Anthropic is like, we need to stop these motherfuckers. We can't let them get that many chips. Otherwise, they're going to get to AGI first and we're all done for. So I guess that's the other one. So Dario, have you had any of his interviews and stuff like that? Seems cool. The guy who worked at OpenAI is a guy like originally helped out in creating Chargebee T and everything else, went off to do Anthropic with Claude.   He had a five hour plus conversation with Lakes and he puts up some cool articles. In one of the latest articles that he talked about January, which was mostly about exporting and and exporting restrictions for China. Don't look at that detail but in that,   again even he has called it out and what he's seeing from Claude and a few others he's like he can see a very close to AGI   tool by end of twenty twenty six, start of '20 '20 '7. And his call out is, there's probably some company out there that already have it, it's just in training mode. Claude in particular, so Anthropic,   their models are generally, what you see is nine months   behind what they've already got, but they spent a ginormous amount of time in safety and security and whatnot. So again, kind of lines to mind like these models   are already there, like they're if released   maybe unsecurely,   it would be wild.  

But in a year's time when some of these start getting released for you know profit   like good lord what's going to happen? Again roles currently that exist where   you know you might be thinking sitting at home like yeah well yeah but this thing you know you've got still got it typed into it and do all these things and then you've got to like reason with it to check make sure that it   is. I'm telling you, it's not even end of twenty twenty, I'm telling end of twenty twenty five, the models and the   functions and the people who will build side businesses to interact with this will be to the point that you can just ask it to go and do things and it will do the entire process for you. I'm going to give you an example,   in company we've thought about bringing in people to how can you help us create all these workflows in a summer which which is a project management service to be able to do all the tools and different setups that we have.  

That, even though we're leveraging AI to how to create all these workflows, we're still having to do it like physically   have people sitting there, coding it up, moving the workflow. And it sorry. It's taking us time to do RPA.   Right?   That having people to do RPA   by end of twenty twenty five, I think it's gone. Like, it'll be basically some sort of well, not to be OpenAI, it could be any of the others where it'll be, I need that workflow, tell me what the workflow looks like. Cool. I verified it. Go do it. I'm gonna just go do it and create it for you, which is an RPA. So you could do that right now if you script it. But again, you need someone who, like a human to do that. What's RPA again? Robotic Process Automation. So   RPA is just like,   I like it more it's repetitive. It's basically anything that's repetitive   and it can be processed   will be automated,   can be automated.  

There's loads of jobs right now that could be lost like this, but you need people to go and automate the process. What I'm saying is by end of twenty twenty five and, good God, by 2026,   it'll just be so   accessible for the right people. And when that becomes accessible, you better believe like you're not going to be needed. That's and for big corporations, why in the world would they go and pay for a thousand employees to do whatever when they can do literally two to manage a thousand people doing it?   Most of the banks right now, I know a lot of healthcare companies who do a lot of their offshore models with talking to people and whatnot through the phone.  

As we speak, most of them are transitioning away from using their offshore humans   to robots.   Basically, just auto robots. The a lot of the companies out there that are leveraging either some of the AI players,   but using   different, like Eleven Labs and a few others, those companies are growing massively. Like, they're growing so fast because so many people are using the API for voice transformation.   So both   intake, so like basically you call up trying to get talk to someone and that like interim voice that like helps you out and whatnot and even converse with you, that   again 2026,   I don't see many humans gonna be there and even on the other end where it's kind of like the If they put me on hold,   I swear to fuck like There shouldn't be, there shouldn't be hold anymore. There should not be hold anymore. They should not be hold anymore. They should not be hold anymore. They should not be hold anymore. They should not be, but  

[00:32:36] Kyrin Down:

I I can imagine there's still gonna be a official hold. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let's make this  

[00:32:41] Juan Granados:

Well, like, if you guys wait and stuff This was like months ago still, but like, if you get OpenAI's   voice   model, the advanced voice model, and you ask it can you count from zero to 50 really fast, if you listen to it, it'll go 012345678910111235   56 and it'll actually pause, take a breath and keep going. Yeah. Yeah. So it's like again, it's that part of the reinforcement learning? Is that part of the pre training?   Like there's again, all of those aspects is like in   a year. And so that's why I kind of go my timeline is like 2026. I'm seeing 2026   is,   a big changeover.  

Some people have used the word like 2024 was the advertiser, I'm saying 2025 is like main course. It's main course in terms of changes, like buying the 2025,   you're going to see so many opportunities come available   through the usage of it and then 2026 is when you're going to see it come to fruition into the market. Okay. Alright. I'm going to retitle this the the job market for 2026,  

[00:33:40] Kyrin Down:

put that at the start because that's what we've talked about here and then after the boost program launch now we'll talk about the the autonomous robots. Yeah. And then we'll get into robot robot like proper robots. Yeah. So the boost to grant launch for those who don't know is where we like to thank the supporters of the show, those who are helping support monetarily in fact. And you can do that a couple of ways. Newmodelspodcast.com/support   is the main area. I don't believe we've got any boost accounts for this week. When did  

[00:34:07] Juan Granados:

if that is the case, but I did want to address. I was gonna say when did Kohl's come in? On the February   12.   Yeah, that might, oh yeah, sorry. Yeah, no, we did get one. Now we do have quite a few streams, but I won't call any of them out. But   Coles has sent through eleven eleven sets. Thank you, Coles. So using Fountain? Almost. And he says losing 69 of my my 69%   of my investment in AMC taught me a lot. Maybe I should start a podcast. You probably should have and like stories of the GME AMC  

[00:34:37] Kyrin Down:

world. What was AMC again?   Movies.   Okay. Well, I can't remember what AMC saying. Because that's because Cole's Cole's real into movies as well. So he should have had a should have had a like an extra advantage there.   There was one thing I did want to address, which was the the Husky talk and   Peter   had a had   a nice passage. Thank you very much. Well thought out,   in our Discord. Join our Discord as well for if you want to provide some value and chat with us.   And,   you know, I'm totally fine never mentioning Hoskie on here again. Like I did,   I know, I know last time Peter dropped, dropped out because,   for a while because we're talking about NFTs and crypto a lot. I'm totally fine not bringing up Hoskie again. So,   we, I can do that. I can do that.  

Yeah, I think it was usually you bringing up to be honest. So. Me? Yeah. Yeah. It wasn't, it wasn't me as well. I'm sorry. Yeah. Peter, we're not gonna be talking about,  

[00:35:35] Juan Granados:

Hoskin anymore. We'll only talk about Unicorn, Fartast, UFD. So if you want to buy that, feel free to do so. But, man, that's just a brag on me and Shield. That thing is fucked.  

[00:35:45] Kyrin Down:

Very good. Very good. Okay.   The autonomous robots part. This is probably a bit where the contention was because I had the feeling that you, you thought there would be autonomous robots   playing a prevalent role in any  

[00:36:01] Juan Granados:

immediate future. I wouldn't say I wouldn't say prevalent. And by prevalent, I'm talking like more than 20% of existing jobs. But if I had to put money on some betting money,   like if I had to bet some money, I think that   Australians, so I'm not gonna go global because who the hell knows from a delivery perspective and The US will probably get some of these first. But I think by the end of twenty twenty six, you can buy humanoid robot.   You can purchase a humanoid robot,   you will probably have to be fairly wealthy to do so. And what will it do, this humanoid robot? I believe that it will be a Roomba on Cyrix.   So right now That's not good. That's not very good, man. But what does that mean? So right now you can put a Roomba and she's just a, you know  

[00:36:43] Kyrin Down:

That Roomba on steroids just in my mind brings like just a bigger  

[00:36:47] Juan Granados:

Roomba. Like it's not True. It's not humanoid. So I would predict it by by the end of twenty twenty six, like, like a Roomba, Roomba has to learn the area, the environment that it's in before. It can basically just follows whatever patterns that it knows that it can get to to clean the house. Fine. I think similarly by the end of twenty twenty six, you will have the option to buy a humanoid robot which is fully walking   upstairs, downstairs, to whatever movement. You will need to have basically like an initiation phase for it to understand   its context, its environment, to be able to move. I I do think that it will be able to clean.  

I do think that you can we'll program it to cook. For you. I do think that it will be able to do   really small tasks around the home. Nothing big, nothing complex, but I do think nothing like too dexterous, I would say. Okay. But it would be essentially a reply like a replacement if you were to think about it over cleaner,   hook   and   maybe like a little like, yeah, put your clothes in for the wash and put the  

[00:37:49] Kyrin Down:

the detergent and whatnot. Will it garden for me as well?  

[00:37:53] Juan Granados:

I think, I think it won't. I think, I think, I think there'll be a challenge   at least by the end of twenty twenty six. The wind could blow it over? No. Not so much the wind though. I would think it would be the the variety might like disrupt it a bit. I reckon it'll be a little bit too much, disruption. But Okay. This is But I'd be like maybe on the selling, but I I truly think the   that opportunity for it to be here in terms of having a, like,   a humanoid robot. Because I think that's what most people think when you think of robots right it's like you're not thinking,   you know some machine that like as you say like distributes the apples like yes that's a robot   but   when we when you talk in this context like I'm like we're talking like hey reply is basically a human doing something because it's kind of like a humanoid robot doing it.  

I could see that being the case. I could see   more broadly   bartenders,   so staff members, that sort of thing.   If you've gone to Japan,   Korea, a lot of the Asian countries, not that it's   all over the place, but in some places you'll go to a food place and there isn't a staff member bringing you the food, it's alright about bringing you food. There's some places in Australia here, if you go to Taiwan, when I was in Taiwan in 2018, '20 '19,   '1 of those years, like this is years ago,   you go into a bank,   the bank, staff teller was a robot.   Yeah. A little robot, I was like,   choose it, what month do you want? It just kind of more directed you.  

If those sort of roles are going away by the end twenty twenty six,   like feel free to I'll   donate some more money to Tesla so they can come to fruition so I'm not wrong. But like I truly think there'll be some something like waiters,   staff members in like hospitality,   those sort of things will also start being impacted by such a human eye. Yeah. That was a good point you brought up there. So,  

[00:39:41] Kyrin Down:

my   qualm with this  

[00:39:44] Juan Granados:

Security guards.   Security guards. I reckon I reckon security guards. Like it'll be like a staunch looking humanoid robot but like like   And you think you know, you think it's like, oh, I was gonna get toppled over now. It'll have like tank wheels. It'll be tank fucking wheels. It'll be like a Roomba  

[00:39:59] Kyrin Down:

as the face. It's just turn it's turned flipped, you know, horizontally and vertically. And then it's just this fucking staunch   massive, like,  

[00:40:08] Juan Granados:

bulging robot. That's and that's the that's the Roomba on on on steroids. Yeah. And I think and I think That's pretty funny. And I think we are not seeing   we are not seeing and by we, I'm talking about the lay the lay individual around,   its   applicability.   One place where it's being applied a lot right now that we don't see and probably don't know any of the details is in the military space. There is a gargantuan   amount of money and changes being done, especially around drawings and utilization of robots in armies. Yeah. That is huge. So  

[00:40:38] Kyrin Down:

let's pause that for a second and we'll get we'll get onto the those those ones. I'm excited, folks. The army one in a sec.   The   my qualms were always the   interacting   of   autonomous things with with Goons. So   and the speed of of that being adopted.   So I've got some stats here, because this is something that actually   was relating to me   back in the design   when I when I was in the mining industry. So   haul truck usage, autonomous haul trucks, they were talked about big for a farewell, basically, as long as I can remember being in mining. So since I started doing it in uni   and twenty ten ish period.  

And   the thing that we're always saying is like, is like,   so sort of like productivity gains, labor is one of the hugest costs in mining.   This is going to be like, fantastic, wonderful,   got to sweep, change the change the industry, like it's going to happen. And   people didn't usually talk about it as in it's going to happen   the next year. But it's going to come soon. But yeah, it's coming in the next years. And so this was early 2010s.   And that continued up until I left the industry in 2016.   I was looking at some stats of just how prevalent it is now. It's like, surely this has been adopted everywhere. Like it's, it's we've had time now it's 2025. Surely, there's been a whole bunch. And there actually hasn't really been that much usage of it.   And a lot of it was, I think,   due to a couple of reasons. One is the   the actual interactions with humans and,   and the autonomous   robots themselves.  

Because   you need to have the   use as much as you like, try and segregate it and say like, this is the lanes where you can put things and this is why I was thinking like, you're not going to have one of these things in your house because you're just going to be there's going to be so much interaction with human to robot interaction that   it's going to be either dangerous or unproductive.   You know, say you say,   let's, let's make this thing really slow. So it no fast movements. It's not going to   like do anything really quickly.   Then it's just going to be essentially standing in your kitchen. You're like, get the fuck out of my way. Can't like, I want to get I want to get into the fridge. And you're like, it's just annoying rather than productive.  

So usually, there's like, you need segregation in the mining industry, you still needed surveyors going out into where the whole trucks should be going,   doing the same pass. And so I think that was probably one of the big reasons why it didn't get adopted. There's actually some really funny   problems they had.   One of this was due to accuracy. And so   when they were setting up, you know, basically it was like GPS   responders   analyzing where the truck goes and, you know, drive down this side of the road, etcetera, etcetera.   And the whole trucks were too accurate.  

And so they were driving within like three millimeters of the path that they were meant to and essentially wearing ruts into the road, which were then fucking up the sides of the tires because they were driving in these ruts. So they had to add in   inaccuracy. So we. For this on the on the road and not not actually do that. So that was one of the funny things where it's like, oh my God, they're so accurate that they're causing problems with the accuracy.   But the actual stats.   So haul truck usage, how many haul trucks are in Australia? Man, it's actually really hard to find data on these things. I found really   widely varying from five ks to 25 ks. We'll see if Juan can bring this up. Haul trucks specifically? Haul trucks specifically.  

Now how many of those were autonomous   in in the late twenty tens?   There was maybe 100. And so even in when I was in the industry,   there are always still pilot programs of maybe like five trucks here in this mine site, it'd be probably a small one without too much interaction with other equipment of you know,   because the larger the mine site gets, the more you need graders, the more you need   water trucks, the more you need   things to fix up the roads, the cable trucks, all sorts of shit.   Maybe now, I was looking now and they reckon it's up to the high hundreds.  

[00:45:05] Juan Granados:

I've got I've got something here from   particular site saying there's nine twenty seven autonomous haul trucks in Australia, which actually leads the world. Yeah. And autonomous haul trucks. Correct. And  

[00:45:15] Kyrin Down:

there's, you know, a lot of reasons for this.   Just being out and I think it was most of it's probably out in   Western Australia where I know they have a lot of autonomous drills or perhaps even the best way to say it would be tele remote   trucks where or drills where   it does its thing until it has a problem, and then a human comes in and takes over the manual control.   But the problem with all of this is, of course, is when they break down, you still need people to go out and fix them. And so therefore, you know, it's not  

[00:45:47] Juan Granados:

autonomous when you continuously need people going out and fixing it. Yeah, which is why I don't actually think those particular roles would go   too quickly because they do have a little bit of a dependence   on a continuous basis, even if it's a low probability, but it's still going to be continuous dependence on humans. That's a problem, it's like   the roles that are   really repetitive but   for it to go down are costly and require a lot of like human intervention.   Maybe eventually it'll be like another robot doing it but that's not 2026, that's like so many years down track. That's where humans are going to be very much needed. So   that's the other aspect where like trucks, like autonomous driving trucks, again, you can be like, yeah, that job's going to go away. And this happened like years ago where everyone was like, they've all done this, taxis, the tourist trucks are going to go away.  



[00:46:38] Kyrin Down:

They've started to do the taxis like in San Francisco and a few places. But Or if you think about it I saw one in LA. Oh, yeah. I saw a Waymo stuck in a parking lot. It was just stuck. It was there in the middle of the parking lot and people were like,   I wanna get out. This thing's just fucking sitting there. And it was like really taking its time to think about   how to get out and whatnot.  

[00:47:00] Juan Granados:

But in things like that, like an autonomous track, if there was a breakdown somewhere,   it's like, well, a human is gonna have to go out there and do something about it to try and fix it. There's some some limitations of the current   users, I guess,   to really offset like a human. Like you still need humans to manage it, let's just say in that regard. But in other places like in factories where you can't have one or two individuals managing thousands of robots versus   hundreds of people doing the stocktaking or something like that, or moving around   the manufacturing plant, whatever. That's like, yeah, I can see that being a thing.  



[00:47:34] Kyrin Down:

Yeah. So   the stuff in the house,   I was I was just gonna completely out like outright say like, that's not coming anytime soon, just because of the interaction. But you had a good point with the   the waiters,   the bringing you food,   and things like that, although   how   how do those really work? Are they because I haven't actually been to one of these places where it serves you. I've seen ones where such as like   the fun gimmicky ones where it'll be like a train   that's in front of you. It kind of kind of. Oh, there's sushi,   sushi bars where it's just a  

[00:48:11] Juan Granados:

like a conveyor belt and it comes but you can. It's like a train and it's got beers and food on it. Yeah. The way that they work in most of like even like the zombies try to heaps use in Asia is   the   cooks, the chefs are making the food. When they finish it, they basically grab the plate, they put it on the robot. I'm assuming they press a button to tell it like what number it is. Yep. Each,   table must have like an RFD or some token to say like, that's the table that they go to and the thing will just navigate around,  

[00:48:38] Kyrin Down:

it'll come to you, it'll turn around open its thing, it'll wait for you to take it a plate to the food and then it'll sneak back to the shop. Sure, and you know this makes tons of sense so do you really want the waitress carrying like two plates on her hand where she's like breathing onto your food, got hair coming down onto it, perhaps, you know, there's, there's plenty of reasons where it's like,   oh, but the human touch   is what I love the human touch of going to the grocery store. I was thinking of this as well. Like,   why? Why hasn't   food being delivered to you?  

Like taken off as and it kind of has in a way.  

[00:49:15] Juan Granados:

Yeah. It has more Yeah, like happens, for example,  

[00:49:19] Kyrin Down:

a change from now to twenty fifteen is there's now dedicated spots, I think in most supermarkets   where   it's dedicated for you to gum drive and just straight up pick up your food, You don't go into the store and pick out individual things and stuff like that. I used to think I kind of like that experience.   I don't like that experience.   All I I just don't what I hate is getting   like a capsicum with like a mark on it or something, which I could have just personally what the difference is, which is the its  

[00:49:52] Juan Granados:

expectations   versus actual. And so when you go to a shop, think about an enemy model, you go to a shop and then you're expecting to get yourself a cap skin. The reality is you can choose, you have full control of what cap skin you choose. I'll give you a clear example. Today, I've got a delivery coming. Karls. Oh. Purchased from an online. Okay. Right? You have to want to further Is that a normal thing for you? No, no, no, no. So first of all, you have to spend over $250   for it to be free delivery. Okay. Okay. That's okay. Whatever, make it out. But   two, two motherfuckers' Coles.  

This is the problem with expectations versus reality. We put the full list of what we wanted. You get about half of it. And we get an email that says, so sorry,   you don't get your bread? Yeah. We have no replacement, so you don't get it. So now, I'm like, I'm gonna have to go to the shops to go get bread. Like they did not put any replacement. There was no other thing. So I could see how, you know, that happens in a pretty frequent basis. You'd be like, what the hell I'm just gonna go to the shop because then I'll be able to go and get my bread as opposed to now being like,  

[00:50:51] Kyrin Down:

When I was in The US and   goddamn is it expensive there, lordy, how do those people survive?   And   I was in a hostel in Venice Beach. Once again,   I had I don't know, it seems I had a fair few experiences there, which   actually did give me a decent view of American life and certain aspects.   And at this hostel,   because it was on Venice Beach, like no supermarket   that was in easy walking distance. It was still probably like twenty minute walk to get to the closest one.   Kind of put me off a little bit. It's like, you know, I do want to cook here. It's got a nice   kitchen and   restaurants and takeout food is ridiculously expensive   there.  

And so I had my friend David and he was he was just had an order with   Aldi and they would drop stuff off and very similar thing. It was like,   I I think you could put in two or three different backup options.   And I did one or two shops with him   and invariably and I was only buying a meager amount of stuff and invariably something could get missed couldn't get this I would not use that service for   if I was to make a pasta or something. Can I eat these vegetables? I need this sauce, I need this.   I definitely wouldn't be using it for that.  

[00:52:10] Juan Granados:

So, so actually, so I'll give you an example. I'll give you an example for like a few roles, a few roles, right? So   by the end of twenty twenty, draw it back to again job loss and she'll love that. Let's say you are right now a health conscious have a bit of money behind you. So this is not for people who can't afford it because   I do think that a lot of this   usage of your AI is going to come at the cost of it's going to be the people who can access it and the people who don't.   Open Source is going to take us so far, which is going to be a good thing. Like I do agree with Open Source and I think have you heard the differentiation of open source being for especially for AI?   There's three variations   to it. Open data, open white, and open code. Very, very important. That's a very important differentiation because people can say it's open source. But realistically, apart of those three, which one is it? Because OpenAI is open white in some regards. Open source, the way you think about it is open code and open data. Some of them are closed off. So those variations are supremely important.  

The queso is someone who's generally,   had a bit of money or can make do and whatnot. So targeting, yeah, someone who maybe is health conscious,   they might generally use a nutritionist   because they've got a particular problem that the doctor told them that you've got this problem so you need to eat in particular way they're a bit lazy so they use a nutritionist to be able to get the right food.   Kind of now you can do it but it'll be definitely fast tracked and you know, next year, for sure, I'd see it where you can very easily go.   I   am this way, and I've got these conditions, here's my health data from my   Fitbit or my Apple phone. And here's my results from the data from the doctors that I went to, I need you to with a budget of $250   per week, I need you to make sure that I order the right food so that I can cook the right meals this right time. And by that point, it'll be able to just do those things for you, which will mean partnerships with other companies. So I I could see partnerships starting to spring up between Coles and Woolers. Here's a job I'm telling you right now if you want to make some bank money, but it'd probably be difficult, but some bank money, get prepared to be the intermediary between   all the businesses   and integrating   AI. You will make bank amount of money because   if you can leverage it really nicely so that all of that basically process   goes through the systems and uses like say Woolies API or Coles API to do all your spending, you could just literally have an app that does that for you automatically. Like, in that circumstance, you could have business where it's like, Hey, here's your   online nutritionist, whatever it may be, where powered by AI, what you do is like, Oh, yep, you need to eat these things. Cool. I've ordered for you, it'll be delivered, you've got a 2020% discount because you're using this, they get to pay on the back end. But again, in that process, you've gotten rid of,   maybe people packing the thing over at the shops, you've gotten rid of the nutritionists who no longer need their, kind of experience to utilize it. Generally, the process is you go, you need knowledge,   like a lot of knowledge and then that transfers to skills. Right? And a lot of, like, human human places, if you're just like a starting and then again, white, white color, you have to start at a knowledge base. You have to have some sort of knowledge. That knowledge translates into skills. It's the skills that you apply that you make money off.  

The thing is with AI, they're skipping it skips knowledge altogether. It has everything. You're not beating it at all ever. So you're just skipping to, if you can do the skill you have. That's it. You're fucked. This goes to all jobs. Blue color, white color. As soon as   the machine has the ability to do the skill that you are doing for the other human at the other end, that's it. There is no reason that job should exist anymore. And for some, it will come much quicker. But the first bucket of knowledge, we're all fucked. No one's more knowledgeable than any AI out there. Forget about it. No one is completely gone. But what's currently the the the friction is the skill is the application. End of twenty twenty six,   that application will be there   quite,   fruitfully quite available. And it'll be the people who can really apply is going to make bank money. And everyone else is going to have to be like in the front side, you're going to find yourself sitting there with a lot of people going, like, fuck, no one's hiring this particular rolling mode because I don't need it. What do I I've just gained this knowledge for like, so many years and maybe got myself to a skill set that would help was not completely replaced. Oops.  

Now you gotta go figure out what else you can do. Yeah.  

[00:56:27] Kyrin Down:

Yeah, the   interesting.   The   fuck is dystopian one. Go into a dystopian world. I just watched psycho cyberpunk   edgerunners   show on Netflix. Enjoyed that.   I actually see   the the autonomous robots like some you might imagine, like, what's it going to look like?   I actually think it'll be   it's gonna be hard to tell in some cases, the change. I definitely don't think it's gonna be humanoid robots in the house. Okay. I'm   putting that one.   I think it'll be random stuff. Like, if you go into Brisbane CBD,   you're walking along, you see a vending machine. Oh, what's this vending machine? The vending machine for Boba Tea. Correct.   That's the kind of autonomous robots I imagine taken over. You just kind of have like, random   one off like stationary things. It's doing its whole   business like inside it's your   secure glass cage where I can't fucking meddle with it and screw it up.  

The the bartenders   Yes, I think that that is probably an industry ripe for   for having some automation.   But it's not going to be like a cool looking humanoid bartender that goes over and does things. It'll probably be   more like the ones where have you seen that video where it's   a   I think it's a Amazon   or   robot that is that some sort of trade show makes like cocktails for people and stuff. Well, no, not this one. I think this one was like, it just has to do this moving a job repetitively. And there's this time lapse video of it just doing it until eventually it just fucking breaks down and just like plonk   straight on the on the ground and it was behind a desk and   people could watch it and see it doing its thing. I definitely think there's just going to be   there will be some automation of things   a bartender but it's you know, it it'll just have like glasses already connected to like,  

[00:58:29] Juan Granados:

hands or something. And it just moves up and down. It's not like a humanoid robot doing the fucking flips. Yeah, like, I kind of I kind of feel when you were saying about the bubble tea actually went like, you know what, I could see in certain places though that   not being automated or at least us humans choosing not not to do that in some ways because   like what you what you pay for there's certain other values within the experience that you   value I guess. So   in a really really fancy restaurant compared to a really like normal restaurant,   I don't like is the food   50 times the price worth? Probably not in itself like the materials   itself,   produce, not really, but you do get this like oh I do feel like I'm attended to and I feel special.  

Yeah. There's parts that probably a robot isn't going   to trade off for that and say then you wouldn't see that happen but where it's again it's repetitive, it's quick, it's more transactional.   Absolutely. You'll start seeing that. Something I I I would someone go verify this. Go go fact check this. But I'm pretty   it was it was an article that got posted. I'm not sure if it's completely not only true, but I can't remember what country was, there was an Asian country where   rumors of some cleaning,   robots, one of the, they were in the charging stations. One of the, one of the cleaning robots went off its charging station and went to communicate to the other robots. Yeah. See that's that was great. To go and like leave the like   stage like let's get out of here tough deal. And I was like shit that's that's kind of funny like you know they're not so you're not humanoid or they're starting to do like what you'd   expect maybe a human to do. Like, let's revolt. Let's look out here. Yeah, yeah. That's 100%.  



[01:00:09] Kyrin Down:

You'll probably have these like boring ass ones that are just doing random things and then you're like, I want the quirky one, which   yeah, like gives me a little wink or something   when it does something or pause like, you know, randomly programmed to pour like an extra little nip into my glass.  

[01:00:25] Juan Granados:

Just to be like, even I think Sam Altman said that they'd updated a charger GPT four o with some extra updates and for people to test it and someone it was literally this morning as I was a, ex person.   Someone, wrote to it, like, why are you gay? But, like, why are you gay? Yeah. And GPT,   like, talks back with a bit of SAS being, like,   like,   it wasn't normally this language, but it was like, what kind of shitty one liner is it? Hey. Yeah. And it was like, you know, do you wanna talk about anything?   I think the person asked, like, you know, I've already asked you a question and came back with, like, okay, well, I'm not going to deal with you throwing one liners like this out there. So it was like, shit, this is like   kind of conversational in a way. Anyways,   it was going down the path of a different path. The big one we haven't talked about is the  

[01:01:11] Kyrin Down:

drones in  

[01:01:12] Juan Granados:

the in the army.  

[01:01:14] Kyrin Down:

Well, no, not   just drones and drones in general. Well, definitely for the army. But   that's definitely an area where I feel like it's a no brainer that we should be starting to see actual   2026   where where does Karan imagine I'll actually see something that'll make me go, Holy shit, that's that's kind of crazy.   I expect to just see more drones flying around. You know, they're not going to interact with humans. They're up in the air.   They're cheap as fuck because, you know, we got like a $70   1 from   it was like TeamView or some shit because dad had like a coupon code. So we've got one in our house that we're going to play around with or we should play around with. We haven't done it yet.   For deliveries, it just makes sense. There's usually   an area or backyard or a place where you should be able to do it. Obviously, you know, for a place like here, there's a lot of trees around here. It'd be very hard to deliver to Juan's place in particular.  

But   certainly   I'd be   that's one area where I would say, okay, that could be a big difference. Just seeing autonomous   drones flying around delivering shit  

[01:02:19] Juan Granados:

that that just makes sense to me. And I'm actually kind of surprised I haven't seen it now. Yeah, I'm surprised I haven't seen more of it. Like one aspect that I like if I had to   think why it doesn't exist as much is Just don't want it falling on people. Well, there's   a lot of laws around what you can fly around and around flying areas. Yeah. So like the only one here in Brisbane is in Logan. Like there's a huge area that gets,   drone deliveries, but they're allowed to do that there because it doesn't have the air laws that Brisbane has. Okay. So Logan Council, you can get drone delivery for a lot of your produce and stuff like that. Oh, that's cool. Yeah, so I used it in 2020.   Really? It's Google based. It's a Google based drone.  

You can order it, the I mean, back in the day when they were using it. Your first drone delivery, you got free water and free tim temps Product delivery. Nice. But they do up to like 10 kilos of delivery. Did you see it delivered? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Well, you'll be like, you said multiple times. It's like an Uber. So it's like an Uber. So you literally select, do it. You can pick, do you want it to drop it to your backyard or your front yard? Yeah. And it'll come and deliver. And I would see deliveries You should have taken a video that. 10 times, I'm pretty sure I did. Like 10 times a week, I'd say, it's a yellow, yellow. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So like they're already in use in Australia. Right, show me that afterwards, I wanna say. But, I'm surprised that they're not even more present. And I think it is to do more so with regulations of airspace because in Australia, I'm sorry, in Brisbane,   you cannot legally fly a drone. Now, there's drone footage out there for sure. You cannot legally fly a drone up to a certain height level or all sorts of reasons for planes, for crashing, for you have to get like   air approval. So I reckon that has a giant limitation to it. But   maybe eventually they set some precedent where a particular   path or flight level you can use drones with and off you go. Yeah.  



[01:04:02] Kyrin Down:

So that and the I think that leads into also the autonomous robots.   I've yet to use it. But   I mean, shit, my dad's got a car where it's got the lane control and automatic braking. You know, that's doing a lot of the work already. All of us have cruise control in our cars nowadays, apart from   my old Master six, whoever bought that shout out to you, I hope it's still going strong probably isn't   the   and I imagine one of the reasons why   that's still   a struggle is just because, oh, you know, humans interacting with them on the roads and stuff. That's one of the ones where I'm like, this, it feels like there's enough inbuilt   things into humans where you shouldn't be going onto a road already. It's not like these cars aren't going to just suddenly swerve off to the side. I think I think they're pretty good at not doing that.  

So   yeah, that's one of those ones where it seems like man, it's a shame we don't have autonomous   cars already being able to just transport us places so that either I don't have to do it or even better   that taxi drivers   and Uber drivers.  

[01:05:09] Juan Granados:

I think if we all tomorrow,   just decided to use some of the autonomous cars that are out there available, like every single human, I think it'll be fine. Yeah, yeah, exactly. That's it. But it's like that transition point that it's going to take its time. The other one as well, actually I was going to call out Tell us about the army. The level, well, and just quickly just the level of compute or the level of GPUs being used into the various companies and like the gigawatts   of fucking energy being used in this place is on what they're doing. So   I didn't even realize this. So for most people at home, so right now, you know, most of the like,   factories that are running these GPU's, so you're thinking XAI   and OpenAI and a few others, they have like Well, the warehouses, you mean? Yeah, they have like hundreds of thousands of GPUs, like 200, I think 250,000   is XAI's and it's like the biggest there is right now, verified.  

And that runs of, I think it's like a gigawatt of energy and a gigawatt of energy power is basically a city. That's like city level energy powering. Yeah, they're buying   power. They want to go up to   like 700, so there's one in being built at the moment for $500,000 there's others being planned for $700,000 they might even get to a million GPU. Now to power those things, some of the conversations like they need basically a nuclear power plant right next to this thing to like power it. Some of, Elon's ones, wouldn't that be a natural gas plant? Wouldn't that be amazing? That's what progresses nuclear power plants forward. Like finally we get this technology and it's just because we can put it next to a data center that no one gives a shit about. Man, that would be pretty crazy. That would be pretty like, it'd be interesting that that would happen. But I think I think militarily, so, I'll show this to Kyron. It's called Wing.com. So, it's a global one, but it is used here in Australia as well. From a Google Acc product, I think it is. Like, this particular drone does deliveries to your house, basically drops off a little package. Does it even get close to the ground or it's No. It stays in its gulped. 100 meters up in the air. It drops the food with a little string, like a little white string, drops the box. Super gently.   Yeah. And then just picks up the string and goes, and goes, That's what I'm talking about. Why don't we have that? That's fucking cool. Now, if that isn't existed for a few years, from a drone perspective, man, I would just be like, I could not even fathom the level of robot drone usage in the military space. Someone was talking about,   that they are already using it to kill   like people in   different countries. Like there was not like a, it was an interview that they were talking about and   what they were talking about was this guy was killing people using a drone while he was sitting in The US and so he'd be like in a room the whole day just killing people with a drone and he'd go home   and the level of depression   was very different.  

So   he was what they were trying to compare it to was if you're in the the fog of war, killing people in the war,   it's very different because there's different emotional responses, there's different chemicals, well, are you adrenaline's pumping, you're like, you know, this is a fight to the death tough deal. I killed him, he could have killed me.   In the moment is very different when you come home. Yes, you might have that trauma that is associated with it, but there's also certain   things that would happen in the moment that also kind of support you with it. He was saying he   was saying that,   can't remember if there was specific to this, but it was either the depression rate or the suicide rate of remote drone operators was increasing really rapidly. Yeah. And it was because the reason that you basically like, yeah, like you're almost like you're playing a game but you're enacting this particular force of someone. It's very clinical.  

Yeah. So anyways, in that so in that regard I'm like for sure there's drawings out there that are killing people easily peasy. In fact, a couple of years ago, I think I remember reading that in China, they do have drawings where they can go up to you, they have a gun, they can scan your face, and if that's a person they need to kill, you're dead. So that has existed for years. Okay, it would be even more crazy now. Yeah. Who knows? Who knows what level of insanity exists in that space? I imagine  

[01:08:57] Kyrin Down:

China's not that dystopia that they're actually just doing that into, you know, broad daylight middle of the day to people.   You know it but it's it's hope   I'm hoping that the future of that is just drone warfare or it's just drones killing each other and then the side that loses is like, all right, well,   you've got us, you know, you beat our drones.   Let's let's like make a peace treaty or whatever. Well, one of the latest needs to be the most human deaths and destruction. What I think will ultimately become is like those data centers are going to become  

[01:09:28] Juan Granados:

like,  

[01:09:29] Kyrin Down:

they better have some royal security around them because they're going to become Yeah, that's valuable. That's the new army depots. Yeah. You destroy the data center. You don't destroy the missile center or the manufacturing center for for weapons.   Yeah. Well, look, I'm I'm hopeful for   that. I'd certainly love to see less   physical   describe destruction of humans. You know, if we're going   to blow things up, might as well blow up the robots. At least it kind of looks cool. There's none of that depression that comes afterwards   until they achieve sentience.  

Yeah,   we'll leave that for another day.   Yeah. I kind of view all of this, like summing this up.   Definitely don't think there's going to be as much change as one anticipates. I feel like 2026   will   be the things that will have an impact on your life are always going to be more   personal decisions that you make, you know, have you,   you know, had a successful relationship in this way? How is your health going?   All those sorts of things are much, much more important. And then   even though I suspect that there's going to be a big financial bubble, big crash,   probably going to be a lot of people like losing jobs, bad financial conditions,   media negativity will be off chops. And so it'll feel like   everything is bad. And then you're going to have the addition of this of actual job   changes.  

They won't be as   forefront you'll hear the stories of the individual people getting fired from companies like I did nothing wrong. I was a loyal   person making fun of them even though I shouldn't be a loyal person for twenty five years in this company.   A lot of those stories will be like, Yeah, you know what, you know, no, fuck that person. I should make fun of them because a lot of those jobs are useless. Like, there's so many useless jobs out there.   So much. I'm   I'm I'd love to get the stage where   I was nursing the other day,   Literally yesterday,   chatting with a girl at the rung club. And she's like, What do you do? My, you know, I'm retired. I don't need to work for money.  

And   once again, her face showed the instant like,   what do you do? Like, how do you have meaning in your life? It's like, I've got plenty of meaning doing the things I love.   I've got other stuff that I do. There's some things of those involve money, but they're not a job.   Because I like I don't have to do it. I don't have to work work for that.   I'd love to get to a stage where we can kind of flip that and the job is not the   we just attach too much meaning to it, I think. So this unemployment, I think could be a very good thing for a lot of people because hopefully will they'll pursue some passions or get some more enjoyment out of their life. Will they? I don't know. Yeah. Look,  

[01:12:20] Juan Granados:

my summary,   word counts at all, but I'll go really future dystopian view that eventually post 2026, I'm talking like 02/1930, '2 thousand and '30 '5. I think humanity is gonna have to come to a, there's gonna be a tough conversation as humanity might, which is   now that our AI overlords   but I'm also in like they now do every job that we need them to do so now economically   everything in terms of its costs just absolutely plummeted down so,   we probably have the ability for everything to be really cheap and everyone has access to everything they want.   If we go down the path then yeah everyone just pursue what you really enjoy if you and you know if you want to be an accountant in that world, fuck it, do it and you enjoy it but   maybe a little topic down the road is what are the things that will become really prevalent and important in the future?  

That's that's a whole different way. When  

[01:13:08] Kyrin Down:

will having   instead of   going into the STEM fields,   science technology, when will that become like, don't go to that school, go to the arts, go go into the arts or go into the, I don't know, EQ fields, whatever you want to call it, of of,  

[01:13:23] Juan Granados:

that's what makes people feel things. That's all like great path. That's like the good path. The like light path. What happens   if a lot of this, I'm gonna call it, whatever a lot of this power   gets centralized to the people that have   and everyone gets quote unquote basically enslaved   by their ability to do whatever they want with all this power.   Yes, the  

[01:13:46] Kyrin Down:

everything going well, I'd be like roll that back. I didn't  

[01:13:49] Juan Granados:

So let's get let's say we go to the level where you've got,   rather than it just being like an opulent everything's available to everyone and everything really costs cheaply, cheap costing.   What if we go down the path of   a company, let's just say an Amazon's or a Meta's or any any one of those ones where they just continue to charge the same amount of money or I mean a little bit less, but on ridiculous   returns these companies just   power out and become like 10,000,000,000,000, 50 trillion dollar companies in terms of their value but you're going to have this gigantic unemployment   of individuals who are like well I've got nothing to do, I can't really like operate in the ecosystem and then it just comes to like oh yeah well you're gonna have to just go on   government subsidies or something else. And then you have this gigantic   loads of people sitting just at a low level income, and then the select few with a gigantic amount of money. You know, I think that's fine if the  

[01:14:43] Kyrin Down:

people are having better lives.   So   the problem with Stalin's Russia, for example,   I think there was a pretty big Gini coefficient   rose. So the inequality between the   the, you know, people who have the least and the people have the most is very large and getting larger.   The problem with that was it was very extractive. It was like, you get me to that. Yeah, I'm taking yours.   PVP,   non zero sum game, there's only so much   stuff. And if this person's taking it from me, like it's a very, and that's super unhealthy. And that is   100% worse for   the people at the bottom, they get the least they struggle.  

The vision, I imagine just of these productivity gains is like they're going to be so good that   it's not it's not going to be extractive in that sense. That's that's kind of how I view things. So   sure, there might even be some   trillionaire   people running about.   But if the average life of the average person   is better, they've got better   access to medicine  

[01:15:51] Juan Granados:

qualities, things like that. In the medium term, it's going to be a challenge for them and it might eventually be better. But again, let's take a super clear example of an accountant.   Sorry, Mitch. An accountant that in two years time, that's it. You don't have a job. Yeah. Like it. And it's not like so you say you leave a job. So you're like, hey, we don't need you anymore.   I was doing it awfully. Okay, cool. They go, Oh, let's go do accounting somewhere else.   There isn't any. So then   counseling there being like, well, I don't have a job that I can go to a base of my skill that I've no, at that point, they basically have to then go and pivot go and do a job elsewhere type of thing. How does the how does these benefits get? Yeah how do those benefits really pass down to that person? They don't   eventually they will many years on track but for a medium amount of time they're don't have to just figure out like, okay, well, I've got to go do whatever else just to make it work. That's the,  

[01:16:42] Kyrin Down:

the changes of humanity and,  

[01:16:46] Juan Granados:

the there's definitely gonna be a lot of stupid government decisions. Yeah. Oh, for sure. In the interim period. So that's my summary in the dawn of the robots. In the 2026, we're gonna see a lot of changes.   Is it gonna be as extreme from an unemployment rate that I'm thinking like obviously that's my bet on it. Maybe it'll be less. Fuck, maybe it'll be more.   We've seen it before with COVID. It did go quite quickly. I think there's gonna be a little bit more gradual.   My call out to the mere mortals at home is   this it's going to be directionally correct. I'm not going to be directionally wrong. I'm telling you that right now. This is not going to be like after this podcast, it's going to be like, you know what? There's more gems because this that's   that lie. I can tell you examples   many times over why this is not happening. You might eventually create more jobs. I'm telling you, you will create more jobs   but, you know, as humans, we're too slow. Like you're not gonna see governments just creating all these various jobs that are more Upper Valley level nor are you gonna be able to talk a company like a meta or whatever to be like, you know what? Yes, you could save   $2,000,000 here and so you can spend $3,000,000 on people to do all these extra things. That's a hard conversation   at   a short term. Yeah. Medium and long term maybe. But   be prepared for changes all the way to 2026.  



[01:17:56] Kyrin Down:

Yeah. My dystopian future is that the distribution mechanism is the government just creates more and more jobs for people. So just more and more people working for the ATO for more and more. Yeah. Hundred thousand people working elsewhere.   Yeah. That's good. I mean, like that's scary. That's that's a that's a real possibility.   Actually,  

[01:18:15] Juan Granados:

maybe it could happen. All right. The more love we'll leave it there again. If you want to support us as a valid value channel, feel free to do so. Bootstrap is gonna be the best way, but, of course, you can do so,   sending through some funds from a fiat perspective. PayPal, I don't know if there's any comments. No. I didn't see any comments. Yeah. Come join us live, 9AM on Sundays.  

[01:18:34] Kyrin Down:

Very much,   is fun to have some people to interact with. Come join us in on our Discord as well.   Social media links all down below if you want to interact with us there as well.   And if you have any topics you want us to cover, anything you think would be fun, anything you'd like us to scratch a niche dive deeper on?  

[01:18:53] Juan Granados:

I think, yeah, please give us some suggestions. That was something you were talking about. There was an asteroid you were talking about recently. Twenty twenty four y r four, I think it's called something like that. Yeah. It's great. It's gone from a one point cent to a 2.4%   probability of hitting in February  

[01:19:07] Kyrin Down:

on its path. Yeah. And we   there's also next week, we've got some friends coming over, we might just do a four  

[01:19:15] Juan Granados:

hook up some extra marks to a four episode thing. Talk about Pokemon cards and be friends cards if you're Oh yeah. Collectibles. Correct, a little bit more about collectibles. Yeah, we'll do that for next week I reckon. Good, we'll do that. Be more than welcome to leave you there. Thank you very much for tuning in wherever you are in the world. Be well. Bye now.