In this episode of the AgTribe's Report, host Vance Crowe is joined by Shay Folk. The discussion kicks off with President Trump's push for Coca Cola to replace high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar, a move that has stirred debate among corn farmers and health advocates alike. They explore the potential economic impacts on corn prices and the broader implications for the beverage industry. The conversation then shifts to the USDA's decision to end race and sex-based criteria for farm aid, examining the potential effects on minority and women farmers and the broader agricultural community.
Continuing with the theme of policy changes, Vance and Shay discuss the Trump administration's controversial proposal to exempt migrant farm workers from deportation, highlighting the tensions between agricultural labor needs and political promises. The episode also features a segment on the Bitcoin land price report, where Shay shares insights how price appreciation in Bitcoin is demonstrating the demonitization of ag land. The show wraps up with Shay's thoughts on the future of agricultural lending and a discussion on the importance of data in farm operations. Throughout the episode, Vance and Shay provide a thought-provoking analysis of the challenges and opportunities facing the agricultural industry today.
1. (00:01:08) Introduction to the AgTribe's Report
2. (00:02:03) Meet Shay Folk: Farmer and Consultant
3. (00:03:32) Trump's Push for Coca Cola to Use Cane Sugar
4. (00:08:38) USDA Ends Race and Sex Criteria for Farm Aid
5. (00:15:05) Trump's Farmworker Exemption Plan
6. (00:23:17) Bitcoin Land Price Report
7. (00:29:00) Peter Thiel Paradox
8. (00:33:16) Worthy Adversary: A Discussion on Disagreement
9. (00:35:30) AgView Solutions: Helping Farms Thrive
Continuing with the theme of policy changes, Vance and Shay discuss the Trump administration's controversial proposal to exempt migrant farm workers from deportation, highlighting the tensions between agricultural labor needs and political promises. The episode also features a segment on the Bitcoin land price report, where Shay shares insights how price appreciation in Bitcoin is demonstrating the demonitization of ag land. The show wraps up with Shay's thoughts on the future of agricultural lending and a discussion on the importance of data in farm operations. Throughout the episode, Vance and Shay provide a thought-provoking analysis of the challenges and opportunities facing the agricultural industry today.
1. (00:01:08) Introduction to the AgTribe's Report
2. (00:02:03) Meet Shay Folk: Farmer and Consultant
3. (00:03:32) Trump's Push for Coca Cola to Use Cane Sugar
4. (00:08:38) USDA Ends Race and Sex Criteria for Farm Aid
5. (00:15:05) Trump's Farmworker Exemption Plan
6. (00:23:17) Bitcoin Land Price Report
7. (00:29:00) Peter Thiel Paradox
8. (00:33:16) Worthy Adversary: A Discussion on Disagreement
9. (00:35:30) AgView Solutions: Helping Farms Thrive
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[00:00:00]
Unknown:
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[00:00:36] Unknown:
What do you think you'll tell your kids about the experience?
[00:00:39] Unknown:
Oh, I'm gonna thank them a lot. I realize this is more for them and their kids and their kids than it is us, the grandkids Right. Who don't know these stories. I can't wait to for us all to get together and see it. This went better than I thought it was gonna. Time does go fast, so it's What time is it? It's almost 03:00. No way. Yes. God, you talked so much. I know.
[00:01:08] Unknown:
Welcome to the AgTribe's report, a breakdown of the top stories affecting the culture of agriculture with your host, Vance Crow. The report begins in three, two, one. Let's begin.
[00:01:24] Unknown:
Welcome to the Ag Tribes Report. I'm your host, Vance Crowe. Each week, I bring on a cohost to represent one of the many Ag Tribes that collectively make up US and Canadian agriculture. This week, we have Shay Folk who goes by Folkshay on x. Shay is dedicated Northwest Illinois farmer and AgView Solutions consultant, driving farm profitability through equipment cost analysis and strategic planning. As a key lead for AgView Solutions profit manager tool and peer groups, he helps growers nationwide optimize margins and plan for growth, operating a vertically integrated seed business and transitioning into his family farm.
This week's guest is well known for seeing opportunities in agriculture.
[00:02:08] Unknown:
Welcome to the show, Shay. Thanks, fans. Good to be on.
[00:02:12] Unknown:
So what have you been paying attention to lately?
[00:02:15] Unknown:
And there's a lot going on in the world right now. First of all, I guess, I would say that, beautiful crop across The United States in a lot of areas, and there's a lot of areas that do not have that. But, man, kind of an interesting year, 2025. Everything's a little bit different. Always is.
[00:02:30] Unknown:
Yeah. I don't think in all of my time I've ever seen things be this green at the July.
[00:02:36] Unknown:
We've just continued to get rain, rain, rain, and lots of sunshine. And I imagine if you're growing crops, they have gotta be just exploding right now. Yeah. It's it's fun to see, fun to be around, but, you know, lots in the headlines. And and I think kind of the first one we were gonna hit on here is, maybe some recent news from Trump and Coca Cola too.
[00:02:55] Unknown:
Yeah. So I think there's a ton to jump into tonight on the Ag Tribes report. We're we're gonna dive into president Trump's push for Coca Cola to swap high fructose corn syrup for cane sugar. We're gonna talk about the USDA's decision to end race and sex based farm aid criteria, and we're gonna talk about the continued heated debate over possible exemptions for migrant farm workers facing deportation. We're also gonna talk about Shay's Peter Teal paradox. We're gonna learn about his worthy adversary and, of course, the Bitcoin land price report. And we're gonna do all that in just thirty minutes. So let's get started. Story number one, Trump pushes Coca Cola to swap out corn syrup for cane syrup. On July 14, president Trump claimed on truth. So social that Coca Cola will ditch high fructose corn syrup for cane sugar in its US beverages, touting it as, quote, healthier and better.
The move backs health secretary Robert f Kennedy Junior's make America healthy again campaign, linking high fructose corn syrup to obesity. The US beverage industry uses about 6,000,000 short tons of high fructose corn syrup annually. 90% of that consumption, is in beverages. So Coca Cola alone, it needs 1,100,000 tons. This is valued at $9,400,000,000 and supports corn farmers and refiners at places like ADM. The Corn Refiners Association warns that switching to cane sugar would cut jobs, depress farm income, and spike imports by 75% with no clear health gains, per the FDA data. The Coca Cola, didn't actually come out and confirm this. They just had promise of new offerings, leaving farmers feeling anxious.
So what do you think, Shay? If Coca Cola does go ahead with this, will we see an actual drop in things like corn prices due to loss of demand?
[00:04:52] Unknown:
The short answer is no to your question. The the first thing that I would say to that is, I think, probably, what's more likely out of the scenario is Coca Cola rolls out a a Trump pure cane sugar, bottle that they package as a as an incentive or, you know, to kinda play along with some of the discussion that's going on here. But let's let's take it for face value. Let's say they do switch all of their production from high fructose corn syrup. I had seen that roughly 30,000,000 bushels are consumed in order to generate, the high fructose corn syrup, and and I would love for someone to to double check that and verify, but that's such a small percentage. I mean, we're we're talking less than a half percent of total US production, assuming that it's all US based corn that's being used for that high fructose corn syrup, which, you know, there there's some unknowns there as well.
So even if they made a switch there, you're talking such a marginal amount that probably no significant impact on corn prices. The the bigger picture here is what what's PepsiCo gonna do? What's, you know, P and G, Gerber, some of the other major food industries gonna do? Is there a larger movement, from the make America healthy again side that creates a bigger impact on the messaging that's being presented here? I don't know if Coca Cola is the right place to start, but it's a widely recognized American brand, and it's it's a out of the Trump playbook of let's look at something that is in people's face that everyone recognizes, and here's the impact that it's gonna have or or, the notional impact, I guess, that it's gonna have.
So, no, I don't I don't think it's gonna directly impact corn prices. Maybe maybe there's other opportunities as part of the Make America Healthy, Again, movement that has positive impacts on corn. You know? So there there could be other initiatives that come out, maybe. Hopefully, some people would probably say not directed by the president of The United States and particularly influencing markets, but there's a lot to be seen here. And and until Coca Cola makes a, formal announcement or until you see any of these other majors get on board, I I don't think there's a lot of validity behind it. Do you?
[00:07:05] Unknown:
Yeah. I mean, I to me, I think that it's really all about branding. And if the corn refiners start having companies like Coca Cola switch over to sugar and, and then Pepsi watches Coca Cola get a couple more market share points for it, maybe they then start offering a new line for that, and you really start bifurcating. Right now, high fructose corn syrup dominates everything. It's nearly impossible to get a a normal branded soda that way. And I think that, this is going to be a challenge to their, it's it's certainly, like a natural monopoly. It's not enforced by anybody, but it'll be interesting to see what happens. I I can understand why they're making a big deal out of this, but, I don't think there's anything they can do to stop it. There's so much public pressure, people wanting to try this, imagining that it's high fructose corn syrup causing obesity,
[00:07:54] Unknown:
I don't think they could stop it. Yeah. And and does high fructose corn syrup become the next roundup? You know, there's a lot of people obviously that are listen listening to this that hope it doesn't. But I I think we gotta be cognizant of what the American public what what their perception is, and sometimes perception is reality. The other interesting point that I thought on this, Vance, was, if I remember correctly, a year or two ago, I had seen a post that one of the last sugarcane processing facilities in Texas had kinda shuttered its doors. And and if I'm if I'm wrong on that, I hope someone mentions that. But the bigger question is, are we producing any significant amount of sugarcane in The United States versus what will be coming in as imports, and is this really a tariff play? You know, I got a tariff war veteran hat on. I I thought some of your guests would probably appreciate that. But, you know, is it is it more of a tariff game of, hey. We're gonna import this, and now we're gonna charge on the imports. You know? So is it is it a is it a double edged sword? I don't know. Yeah. I mean, it's hard to know if they're, playing checkers or, you know, three d chess or just gnawing on the checkers.
[00:08:58] Unknown:
Like, it's really difficult to know that. To me, it seems like there is a lot of cane sugar, and you got to imagine that a lot of acres that are going to something right now, if all of a sudden there was demand by the beverage industry, you know, you've got Louisiana, you've got Florida, you've got Texas. But the refining part of it, I don't think you can kick that on as quickly as you can convert acres over. So you may have a real point there. I think, I think once the the activist community that is against high fructose corn syrup recognizes and sees that a company like Coca Cola can change, they will just turn up the pressure and say, well, these guys did it so you can do it more. So it really could be a lot like Roundup. I think that's a great comparison.
Yeah. Alright. Heading into story number two, the USDA ends race and sex criteria for Farm Aid. On July 10, the USDA ended race and sex based criteria for farm loans and grants effective this fall after lawsuits challenged the socially disadvantaged designation for women and minority farmers. For thirty years, 20% of farm loan value, about 4,000,000,000 annually, was reserved for these groups to address what was considered historical discrimination in land and capital access. This impacted 320,000 minorities and 1,200,000 women farmers who received $60,000 on average per loan compared to 75,000 for others. Now I I looked into this gap. The gap stems from totally rational policy. Most of these are smaller loan sizes, are reflecting the smaller farm operations and lower collateral among these groups.
But ag secretaries, Brooke Rollins says the change ensures, quote, equity through fairness, but the National Black Farmers Association warns it could deepen disparities, leaving small farmers vulnerable. Voices on acts are split, some praising equal access, and others decrying the loss of support. So, Shay, I have to wonder if there's some farms that are run traditionally, but we're leveraging that they got access to 20% of these loans by putting either a minority as the head of the of the farm or a woman. Do you think that that was the case? And is this gonna impact a significant number of farmers?
[00:11:12] Unknown:
Yes. It was the case. I know that for a fact, because of the consulting work that we do. People structure businesses to create the most tax advantage, to create the most business advantage, to take advantage of the programs as any business does. And, you know, I I mentioned frequently that I am a fan of or I am a realist. And so what I would say is the reality is there are people that are going to utilize those programs if that's the reality of their situation. Now is the, woman of the farm operation that's listed on the loan, the one that is the primarily engaged member member as an example here? Or, as as a veteran, I am under that minority status.
If I was not the primary operator in my business, does that mean that I should be able to or that I should take advantage of that loan for the betterment of the business as a as a, quote, unquote, minority member as part of this. And and I don't know if if the veteran status is part of that or if that was excluded as part of it, but it is it's kind of interesting because I think there's some dialogue that could be had there about, well, where do you draw the line on race, sex, equality, other communities that are listed as minorities? So all all that to say that the first part of your question is, yes. I know for a fact that that has been taken advantage of. No different than you have people that structure businesses to create liability protections, to create tax advantages. It it's just the way of the world. It's it's the reality of the America that we live in today. Now what does that look like moving forward?
I think to your point, when I initially saw this headline, my thought went to these are the smaller loan values that were mentioned, the the $40.50, $70,000. It's not $500,000 to go put up a grain site. Maybe maybe they have taken advantage of that, or maybe that has been part of the program in the past, but I would guess that the majority of who this is affecting is those smaller, loan groups that don't have the collateral to back that. I don't I try to stay far away from the from the equity and equality conversation just because, well, for a lot of reasons. But I I would say that there maybe is some truth to the fact that it could have an impact on who is capitalizing on those loans and who is taking advantage of the lending programs.
So whether that has a positive impact on agriculture or negative, I'm not sure. I do think it's it's worth evaluating who the USDA is lending money to and why. Is it for food and fuel production? Is it for food security in your community? Who are the people that are willing to take those risks and that are the ones that are interested in creating those avenues or those opportunities. So if someone is interested in developing a local farmer market or community program that needs a $30,000 loan to get started, and they were able to take advantage of some of these programs and they're the audience that's going to do it, maybe it shouldn't be based on sex or race, but geography or disposition or needs of the community. So, you know, there's a lot of things that can probably, be revamped with a lot of these organizations, the USDA, the FSA, any of the internal government organizations, but maybe maybe the criteria just needs to change. Maybe they need to be a bit more strict instead of looking at these categories of race and sex and say, what is our purpose in helping to serve the community?
And more importantly, what are the people, the constituents
[00:14:57] Unknown:
of The United States asking of an organization? What would they like to see? What's gonna benefit the greater community. So it's a lot of rambling there, but I I I think you got a group. It's it's to me, it's it's unlikely that the USDA is ever gonna be able to come in and do that kind of scalpel level local, what do you need for geography? The government works as not not just a a broad sword. It's like trying to do surgery with a two by four. And, and I think you're not gonna get that. One thing that I think is a big positive of this is if you're reserving twenty percent, for people based on these immutable characteristics, their sex or their race, there's gotta be some people that were really close to the line that that maybe they had the collateral. Maybe they were really close to being able to get access to capital, and they were knocked out just like the college admission where you've got the kid that he he did everything right. He was right on that line, but there were other people that were being put in front of him, not through meritocracy.
This is going to make it so the people that are getting access to taxpayer money for these loans is based on a meritocracy. And what you may see is people that are better able to put that money to use and better able to make their crops grown, efficiently and effectively. The downside definitely is once you lose these farmers from any group, they're not coming back. It's it's just too hard to come back. So I I do recognize that if you just rug pull this and and people have been counting on it, you're you're gonna have lasting generational impact.
[00:16:31] Unknown:
Do you have other options through small business administration, though? You know, does it have to be through the USDA programs that already exist, or are there other business avenues that just aren't directly tied to agriculture that could still facilitate those programs? I think I think that's a question worth asking. And and then to follow-up to your point, yeah, the college admission is a great example, and I I'm a firm believer in meritocracy from a standpoint of let's put the best people in the positions to succeed and to achieve the goals of whatever the organization is, whether that's a university, whether that's a government program, whether that's a private fund. Utilize meritocracy. Put the best people in that position and let them succeed.
[00:17:10] Unknown:
Alright. Moving on to story number three. Trump's farmworker exemption plan sparks outrage. On July 16, the White House borders are Tom Homan said the Trump administration is exploring exemptions to shield migrant farm workers from deportation, citing the need to harvest crops as 320,000 undocumented workers, half of US farm labor, are critical to agriculture. You've definitely seen Trump floating this idea at some of his rallies, putting this idea out there, trying to test it to see what the world thinks. And farmers are warning that without, undocumented workers, crops could rot, spiking food prices. The American Farm Bureau notes that forty two percent of crop workers lack legal status and h two a visas don't meet year round needs like dairy.
However, prominent Trump supporters, including influencers like Jack Popasek, on x are outraged with thousands of posts claiming that the policy betrays his base by by prioritizing cheap labor over Americans. Critics like the Center for Immigration Studies argue it justifies slave like conditions and suppresses wages as undocumented workers earn 15 to $18 an hour versus 20 to $25 an hour for citizens. Homan insists that this is not amnesty, but talks with labor and agriculture aim to reform h two a visas. Shay, where you at on this issue?
[00:18:35] Unknown:
Vance, do you remember, 2022, 2023 major global shipping issues? Everything was backed up. You know, my Amazon packages took seven days to get here instead of three. It was a real crisis. But bigger picture, you had a lot of people that were worried about what was going on in the shipyards. You had the LA, shipyard crisis, workers went on strike or whatever. And, ultimately, what came out of that, part of it was a increase in wages and and some sort of settlement deal for through the labor unions. But what people realized is we're just gonna get robots to do it. We're gonna train the technology. We're gonna get QR code scanners. We're gonna have machines to operate.
I think long term, what's gonna happen as a result of this over a period of time, I'm not saying instantly, you're going to have, smart agricultural products such as robotics doing a lot of the work, and it's it's out there. The the technology is there in a lot of this. What I would say my initial reaction to it, though, is, you know, people voted for Trump in the camp because they liked his aggressiveness. They liked his strong approach. They liked his staunch values of we're gonna do this, and this is how it's gonna be as as it is with a lot of political candidates. But you're starting to see, I think, a falter of the supporters on the Trump camp of the Epstein list wasn't published.
The deportation has been strong, but not what was promised. The wall is not built, you know, peace through strength, and then we hit Iranian nuclear facilities. So I think what you're starting to see is a lot of people say, why are we making all of these perceived concessions for what we voted for? And when it comes to the farm worker labor, I think a lot of the a lot of the, staunch Trump supporters are looking at it and saying, why should we make exemptions? This is what we voted for. We want to not have illegal immigrants regardless of the role that they fill. Because what if that it was a, you know, this is maybe a less likely scenario. What what if that was a, CEO of a prominent business, and now we're saying, oh, they're too big to fail.
So they're you know, we're not gonna deport them because they're too important. Well, what precedent does that set? You know, it it's it's not what was promised.
[00:20:56] Unknown:
Yeah. You know, when you go out and listen to Trump's base, they are retorting back to people being like, hey. Food prices are gonna shoot through the roof. They're like, you know, hey. Wait. Like, so what are you advocating? Slave labor? And then they're pointing out, hey. When there is this big raid on the Nebraska, meat packing house, the very next day, the waiting room, the HR was filled with American workers that wanted those higher priced jobs that they couldn't get before. And I think that, the Trump is is really showing that there must be a lot of horse trading that he has to do to get things done because the things that mattered the most to his base, and I think this one is among them, he's not delivering on. And I wonder how many of these things, he can float on this. He's probably also gotta have tremendous pressure from farm organizations, from banks, from from anybody that is is really worried. Will we be able to get the harvest in? And I don't I don't know how this is gonna play out. What do you think? Is his base gonna be able to push back hard enough to get him to stay the course?
[00:22:04] Unknown:
A topic that we didn't have here was the potential for Bayer and other herbicide companies to be exempt from EPA restrictions on the ongoing Roundup lawsuits. And I think that just exacerbates the amount of mass critical mass that is behind the lobby groups to be able to influence what goes on in the political landscape. So I and I think, you could probably have just as strong of a push on an issue like this. And where that goes, I don't know. I I think food security is always gonna be a big national issue. I think people are going to want some sort of phase program that addresses the issue but doesn't create immediate issues. It it's gonna be interesting to watch develop over the next few months.
[00:22:50] Unknown:
Yeah. And I think, for Trump's sake, he probably would much, much rather be talking about this than why people are well, then the people that are asking him about why haven't you released the Epstein list. So for him Yeah. Maybe bringing up amnesty is a way to move the conversation on. Alright. That is gonna do it for the headlines today. If you have headlines that you think I should cover on the Ag Tribes report, you can send them to me at Vance Crowe on x or [email protected]. Moving on to the Bitcoin land price report. Whew. Well, last week on Thursday, we were at a new all time high of 116,000. And this week we are up 3% at 120,500, which is no longer the all time high because the all time high has was a 100 and 23 over the weekend.
So this has, been wildly, increasing prices, but let's convert that into the only other truly scarce asset out there, land. Shay, what county do you live in and how much does an acre of high quality farmland cost?
[00:23:54] Unknown:
So I'm here in, Marshall County, Illinois, which would be the top third of the state. And I would say land prices have been between $13.05 and $16.05 depending on quality, so we'd settle at around 15 as we look moving forward. Yeah. That's a you did the math on that. What is that from a Bitcoin standpoint?
[00:24:12] Unknown:
Yeah. Well, with Bitcoin, at around a 120,000, that is point $1.02 4 Bitcoin per acre. In other words, one Bitcoin right now would buy you a little bit over eight acres in Marshall County, Illinois. How does that, how does that sit with you?
[00:24:31] Unknown:
I I asked you before we started here what Bitcoin was in 2019 and when COVID was released because that's really when we started to, see this massive increase in inflationary cost and government spending that's had such an impact on our everyday lives, it was $3,800 for one Bitcoin. So at that time, if land prices were around 13,000, 12,000, 13,000, it would take $4.03 3 and a half to 4 Bitcoin to buy one acre of land. If you had maintained that 3 and a half Bitcoin to today, you'd be sitting on $400,000 that now buys 20 acres of land or 30 acres of land.
So how does it sit with me? I think you have to ask yourself, let's be realistic of what has occurred over the last six years in Bitcoin. What's gonna happen in the next six years? And if you have not been committed to being part of Bitcoin or understanding it or realizing its potential, Vance, I don't know where else I can go and get a 25 x return in a six year period. And is there gonna happen again?
[00:25:46] Unknown:
There's no there's no private equity. There's no hedge fund. Nobody is making the kind of returns that Bitcoin is. And you brought up a great point. I I get into this, discussion regularly on on Twitter. Keith Dorman is always poking me because I say Bitcoin is going to demonetize land, meaning you are like, you're gonna look at private equity. They're gonna look at, should we invest in land as it comes up for sale, or should we invest it in Bitcoin? And right now, it's been just dumped into land. Whenever land comes up, there's always somebody to buy it. But pretty soon, you're gonna start having the the, shareholders of this private equity. They're gonna say, hey. What what the hell are you doing? The return you're getting on land is nowhere near what you're getting on Bitcoin, and you're gonna watch the monetary premium that's gone into land evaporate, and it's gonna evaporate overnight.
And people are like, well, I mean, the prices of land keep going up and you're like, yeah, you're right. The number of dollars it takes to buy land keeps going up, but the number of Bitcoin that it costs to buy land keeps going down. And I'm not saying this to, like, dunk on anybody or to celebrate this. I am just saying the future is is going to be different than what it is right now. And land prices that have historically gone up may not go up anywhere near as fast as inflation.
[00:27:03] Unknown:
So if if Bitcoin's a 120,000 today and it has a 25 x increase again over the next six years, that's $3,000,000. If you take that, let's say land goes up to 18,000 in that time period, you can now buy a 160 acres with that same investment that today would buy you 10 acres.
[00:27:23] Unknown:
You're singing my language, man. You're you're you're the first guy that I've ever had on here that gets it like this. I I appreciate this, and, it's it's one of those things that I think is so deeply important for ag to be thinking about, how can I diversify? I don't even need to buy a lot. Just buy your tiniest little amount to learn how the thing works. And once you get over that little tiny hill, put $50 in or a $100 in. Once you know how to do it, boom, you're gonna realize, I don't know why I waited so long, and I am not going to be the last guy in on this. And by the way, if Bitcoin devalues land, that $3,000,000
[00:28:00] Unknown:
now buys more than a 160 acres.
[00:28:03] Unknown:
This is what I've been saying, and you've said it way, way better than I ever have. I'm so glad I asked. Alright. In the spirit of of this Bitcoin, right now, I charge 0.0087 Bitcoin for an online legacy interview. And it dawned on me that I haven't been talking about what the prices of my things are in land, so I'm going to start doing that. If you want to, buy a, a, legacy interview using Bitcoin and you buy it in the next week, I will sell it to you for 0.0075 Bitcoin. So more than, 10% off. But you gotta pay in Bitcoin and you gotta schedule it before August 31. So I would love to do that. Contact me. I will give you an address, and we'll make that happen. And also if you're thinking about buying, Bitcoin, definitely use the affiliate link we put in the show notes, on this show because that will support the show, and it will also give you $5 in Bitcoin after you make your first $100 purchase.
Alright. Moving on to the Peter Thiel paradox. This is where I'm gonna ask Shay, what is one thing that you believe that almost nobody you know agrees with you on?
[00:29:10] Unknown:
The next five years of lending is gonna make people's heads spin. And I think the same thing that we see with the blockchain technology that goes into Bitcoin is going to happen in the egg lending space, and I would argue that less than point 5% of farm operations are prepared for that to happen. And what I mean is connected data, connected financials, instantaneous real time risk analysis from the lending institutions to you as a farm operation. Right now, lending is a highly, highly relational environment. I experience it in our operation. I see it with the operations that we work with across The United States and Canada.
I think as we move forward, there will be instantaneous access from artificial intelligence integration programs to decide, is it smart to lend Vance money? Is it smart to lend Shea money? What rate are we gonna lend to Shea? What rate are we going to lend to Vance? And you're not gonna see prime plus x amount to the agricultural farming community somewhere between seven and a half and 9% today, you're gonna see 15% to your high risk, and you're gonna see 6% to your low risk returns. And it's the people that are borrowing tens of millions of dollars and have the financial data and have the metrics and have the tight end access that are gonna get 6% interest rates. And the people that are running 500,000 acre operations, highly leveraged, don't have data connectivity, don't have good balance sheets, cash flows. They're gonna be operating at 15% interest rates.
[00:30:51] Unknown:
So if that is what you think, and this is a novel, whole picture that I've I've heard about this. If you think that, what what's the move somebody makes right now?
[00:31:01] Unknown:
Everybody says data is being used against us. Okay. Use data against everybody else. Use your data. Get on track with what you need to be recording. Are you are you providing good cash flows? Are you providing real time information to your marketing plan? Are you capitalizing on your marketing plan? Do you have good projections for the business? Have you the ability to map out how your balance sheet has grown over the last five years? These are basic things that your lender has been, like, beating you upside the head for the last five, ten, twenty years to do, but there hasn't been enough pain to encourage a lot of operations to do it.
And carrots have been too few and far between to incentivize a lot of people to do it, and I think the pain is gonna be I think the pain is gonna be really fast, and I think it's gonna hurt a lot.
[00:31:49] Unknown:
Well, one thing I can say because when you start being afraid of things like, I'm not a numbers guy. It seems very intuitive, for you that you just, like, pop on your computer, start thinking in numbers. One thing that AI has done for me is when I'm sitting down with my accounting software, I get a term I don't understand. I start thinking about, you just go to AI and you ask it, and then you have it explain it to you. And then you you throw it your numbers, and then you say, help me figure out where I should be putting this. What's going on here? And it is a teacher unlike anybody else because you can do it. You can get this teacher at 10:00 at night, and you're not searching through Google or wading through YouTube videos where you gotta watch an ad and then kinda slowly go through this. You have someone that has a the the a PhD in every single aspect of accounting that you could possibly have waiting to patiently answer your question for $30 a month if you get GRAC four. What do you say to that? I think
[00:32:45] Unknown:
a listener today could go in, download their last five years of transaction history from their bank, create some rough categories as a proxy or as a prompt for Grok, and say, create me a cash flow analysis based on the last five years, and I wanna project that for 2026, put it into a chart format, and create a presentation and a two page write up on the future of my business and why it would be important for someone to lend it to me, and it would do it in about ten minutes.
[00:33:17] Unknown:
Shay, we are gonna have you on for a full podcast. We're gonna have a discussion about this and a couple of other things. So we're gonna keep this show moving on, but you have shown me this is this is gonna be a great discussion. Let's move on to the last segment. This is where I ask you about your worthy adversary. Who is one person that you respect
[00:33:35] Unknown:
but strongly disagree with? I I love this guy, so I'm gonna say this, with all the love in the world. Damien Mason and I, we disagreed over a recent post about, whether Dollar Generals are good for rural communities or whether they are not. And, you know, I I joked with you. I tried to pick Neil Degrassi Tyson, and you said, no. It has to be someone you actually know. The reason I I I choose Damien or that I choose Neil, the lesson that I have taught or that I have learned from them, that they have taught me is how someone reacts to an opposing viewpoint says more about that person than what the viewpoint actually is. I could say something to you that you totally disagree with, and how you react tells me more about who Vance is than the actual topic that we're discussing.
And Damien is very good about making comedic inflammatory remarks that get people riled up, and I think, I know, he's smart enough to know what he's doing and the impact that that has on people. So I say that with all the love in the world, there's things that Damien and I disagree with. We get along on a lot of things as well, but it says more about the person that you're interacting with than it does about the question that was posed.
[00:34:50] Unknown:
Yeah, man. There is absolutely no doubt that that guy can stir things up. I I don't think I've ever seen him give a talk or or even do one of his podcasts where he is not finding some stick to poke into somebody's eye about the way they think about things. And, like, it's it's, it's not my style, but when he's poking somebody else, you're like, alright. Let's see what the how they react to this little stick poke. So I think that's a that's a good choice. And by the way, I didn't give you a score on your Peter Thiel paradox. I'm gonna give you a, 8.5. I think it's good. I don't think it's actually all that countercultural, but I do think you're the only one saying it right now. So I I do think that's that's worth a good score. Okay. Great. Alright. So we are gonna close out. But before I go, Shay, tell us a little bit about, AgView Solutions and, you know, who who works with you and and, how do you guys work with them? So AgView Solutions,
[00:35:43] Unknown:
we're our our motto is to help people and businesses thrive in agriculture, and we're focused on farms and ag businesses. Our our bread and butter is helping people through the challenges that they have that are common to farm operations. So things like transition planning, business structuring, how do you collaborate with a nearby farm operation, and how do you navigate the changes or really try to effectively manage the opportunities that are coming at you in a business. And man, the opportunities are massive in agriculture right now and will continue to be massive. We facilitate farmer peer groups across The United States and Canada. That's a phenomenal experience.
And and probably what a lot of your listeners would be interested in too is we do what's called the AgView Executive Business Conference every year. We have you coming out to speak here in 2026 out in Phoenix, Arizona. It's a great event. We open it up to 150 to 170 farm operations, and you get to think business focused. It's it's not a conference that we don't have any sales, we don't have any pitches. It's it's just for people to go and think about their business and to interact. So that's the long short of it. We we do a cost of production software called Farm Profit Manager, farmprofitmanager.com.
We do a podcast called the Ag View Pitch, but we're we're here to help and provide value to farm operations and businesses. I love this community. I love interacting with people like you, Vance, and, just thank you for the opportunity to be on here.
[00:37:13] Unknown:
Well, I'm so glad you did come on. I do wanna I wanna throw something out there to you. This is I didn't tell you this ahead of time, but within the span of about a week and a half, I was talking to two different farmers, people in the ag community, and both of them are like, oh, man. They've got a farm transition. It is a total mess. I I think I gotta call Shay on this one. And then in totally different one was like, oh, man, what a mess. I gotta get my buddy hooked up with Shay. And I was like, that is, is definitely saying something about whatever it is that you're doing with succession, with farm transition, that two completely unrelated guys in ag on different parts of the country knew who you were and said, you're the guy that can help the family navigate a a big challenging situation.
[00:37:58] Unknown:
Well, thank you for that. And and I would give kudos. Chris Baron is who has been doing this for twenty five or thirty years. Chris is actually my stepdad, so it's a it's a family business. And my wife and I are are the future of Agnew Solutions. We have, five consultants as part of the team. And, you know, I tell you there's a lot of things that adding the other associates to our team that we didn't expect, And it's it's the rising tides flow all ships because now we have five people as part of our team that, you know, Vance may know this and I know this and Chris knows this.
And and that's what Andy and Jeremy and Joe and Chris and I all kinda work together on. And so I would just say, maybe those those commentaries have been a result of bringing on the right team members. Our team here with the with AgView Solutions, we call it the AgView Nation, just kind of for fun, internally. It it's been so much fun to work with them, and I would, you know, I would say that we do our best to provide as much as much value as quickly as possible to operations. So, I'm really glad to hear that. Thank you for sharing that.
[00:39:06] Unknown:
Well, thanks for coming on, Shay, and, look for the invitation for a full on podcast. Alright. That's gonna do it for the Ag Tribes report. I did wanna remind you that if you're thinking about getting a legacy interview, this is where I sit down with your loved ones to record them telling their life stories about their childhood, about their careers, about the things that they've learned along the way. Go to legacyinterviews.com. And if you buy buy in the next week, I'm and you use Bitcoin, I'm going to give you, over 10% off. You can buy a bit you can buy a legacy interview online session for 0.0075 Bitcoin.
And, otherwise, you can pay in US dollars. It's a great deal. People love it. And, also, if you've been thinking about buying Bitcoin and you wanna use the exchange that I use to buy all my Bitcoin, use the link below to river.com that will both support the show. And it will, offer you $5 after you spent a $100 on your first Bitcoin purchase. All right. That's gonna do it. We'll be back next week with another guest host. And as always, feel free to disagree.
Support for the AgTribe's report comes from river.com, an online platform for buying Bitcoin in The United States. Use the affiliate link provided in the show notes to purchase Bitcoin directly from River to grow your Bitcoin investment and support the podcast. River.com. Invest in Bitcoin with confidence. And Legacy interviews, a video service that captures people as they really are so the future knows who they really were. Here's Legacy Interview's guests, Daryl and Jill Stamp, on the joy of filming their Legacy Interview.
[00:00:36] Unknown:
What do you think you'll tell your kids about the experience?
[00:00:39] Unknown:
Oh, I'm gonna thank them a lot. I realize this is more for them and their kids and their kids than it is us, the grandkids Right. Who don't know these stories. I can't wait to for us all to get together and see it. This went better than I thought it was gonna. Time does go fast, so it's What time is it? It's almost 03:00. No way. Yes. God, you talked so much. I know.
[00:01:08] Unknown:
Welcome to the AgTribe's report, a breakdown of the top stories affecting the culture of agriculture with your host, Vance Crow. The report begins in three, two, one. Let's begin.
[00:01:24] Unknown:
Welcome to the Ag Tribes Report. I'm your host, Vance Crowe. Each week, I bring on a cohost to represent one of the many Ag Tribes that collectively make up US and Canadian agriculture. This week, we have Shay Folk who goes by Folkshay on x. Shay is dedicated Northwest Illinois farmer and AgView Solutions consultant, driving farm profitability through equipment cost analysis and strategic planning. As a key lead for AgView Solutions profit manager tool and peer groups, he helps growers nationwide optimize margins and plan for growth, operating a vertically integrated seed business and transitioning into his family farm.
This week's guest is well known for seeing opportunities in agriculture.
[00:02:08] Unknown:
Welcome to the show, Shay. Thanks, fans. Good to be on.
[00:02:12] Unknown:
So what have you been paying attention to lately?
[00:02:15] Unknown:
And there's a lot going on in the world right now. First of all, I guess, I would say that, beautiful crop across The United States in a lot of areas, and there's a lot of areas that do not have that. But, man, kind of an interesting year, 2025. Everything's a little bit different. Always is.
[00:02:30] Unknown:
Yeah. I don't think in all of my time I've ever seen things be this green at the July.
[00:02:36] Unknown:
We've just continued to get rain, rain, rain, and lots of sunshine. And I imagine if you're growing crops, they have gotta be just exploding right now. Yeah. It's it's fun to see, fun to be around, but, you know, lots in the headlines. And and I think kind of the first one we were gonna hit on here is, maybe some recent news from Trump and Coca Cola too.
[00:02:55] Unknown:
Yeah. So I think there's a ton to jump into tonight on the Ag Tribes report. We're we're gonna dive into president Trump's push for Coca Cola to swap high fructose corn syrup for cane sugar. We're gonna talk about the USDA's decision to end race and sex based farm aid criteria, and we're gonna talk about the continued heated debate over possible exemptions for migrant farm workers facing deportation. We're also gonna talk about Shay's Peter Teal paradox. We're gonna learn about his worthy adversary and, of course, the Bitcoin land price report. And we're gonna do all that in just thirty minutes. So let's get started. Story number one, Trump pushes Coca Cola to swap out corn syrup for cane syrup. On July 14, president Trump claimed on truth. So social that Coca Cola will ditch high fructose corn syrup for cane sugar in its US beverages, touting it as, quote, healthier and better.
The move backs health secretary Robert f Kennedy Junior's make America healthy again campaign, linking high fructose corn syrup to obesity. The US beverage industry uses about 6,000,000 short tons of high fructose corn syrup annually. 90% of that consumption, is in beverages. So Coca Cola alone, it needs 1,100,000 tons. This is valued at $9,400,000,000 and supports corn farmers and refiners at places like ADM. The Corn Refiners Association warns that switching to cane sugar would cut jobs, depress farm income, and spike imports by 75% with no clear health gains, per the FDA data. The Coca Cola, didn't actually come out and confirm this. They just had promise of new offerings, leaving farmers feeling anxious.
So what do you think, Shay? If Coca Cola does go ahead with this, will we see an actual drop in things like corn prices due to loss of demand?
[00:04:52] Unknown:
The short answer is no to your question. The the first thing that I would say to that is, I think, probably, what's more likely out of the scenario is Coca Cola rolls out a a Trump pure cane sugar, bottle that they package as a as an incentive or, you know, to kinda play along with some of the discussion that's going on here. But let's let's take it for face value. Let's say they do switch all of their production from high fructose corn syrup. I had seen that roughly 30,000,000 bushels are consumed in order to generate, the high fructose corn syrup, and and I would love for someone to to double check that and verify, but that's such a small percentage. I mean, we're we're talking less than a half percent of total US production, assuming that it's all US based corn that's being used for that high fructose corn syrup, which, you know, there there's some unknowns there as well.
So even if they made a switch there, you're talking such a marginal amount that probably no significant impact on corn prices. The the bigger picture here is what what's PepsiCo gonna do? What's, you know, P and G, Gerber, some of the other major food industries gonna do? Is there a larger movement, from the make America healthy again side that creates a bigger impact on the messaging that's being presented here? I don't know if Coca Cola is the right place to start, but it's a widely recognized American brand, and it's it's a out of the Trump playbook of let's look at something that is in people's face that everyone recognizes, and here's the impact that it's gonna have or or, the notional impact, I guess, that it's gonna have.
So, no, I don't I don't think it's gonna directly impact corn prices. Maybe maybe there's other opportunities as part of the Make America Healthy, Again, movement that has positive impacts on corn. You know? So there there could be other initiatives that come out, maybe. Hopefully, some people would probably say not directed by the president of The United States and particularly influencing markets, but there's a lot to be seen here. And and until Coca Cola makes a, formal announcement or until you see any of these other majors get on board, I I don't think there's a lot of validity behind it. Do you?
[00:07:05] Unknown:
Yeah. I mean, I to me, I think that it's really all about branding. And if the corn refiners start having companies like Coca Cola switch over to sugar and, and then Pepsi watches Coca Cola get a couple more market share points for it, maybe they then start offering a new line for that, and you really start bifurcating. Right now, high fructose corn syrup dominates everything. It's nearly impossible to get a a normal branded soda that way. And I think that, this is going to be a challenge to their, it's it's certainly, like a natural monopoly. It's not enforced by anybody, but it'll be interesting to see what happens. I I can understand why they're making a big deal out of this, but, I don't think there's anything they can do to stop it. There's so much public pressure, people wanting to try this, imagining that it's high fructose corn syrup causing obesity,
[00:07:54] Unknown:
I don't think they could stop it. Yeah. And and does high fructose corn syrup become the next roundup? You know, there's a lot of people obviously that are listen listening to this that hope it doesn't. But I I think we gotta be cognizant of what the American public what what their perception is, and sometimes perception is reality. The other interesting point that I thought on this, Vance, was, if I remember correctly, a year or two ago, I had seen a post that one of the last sugarcane processing facilities in Texas had kinda shuttered its doors. And and if I'm if I'm wrong on that, I hope someone mentions that. But the bigger question is, are we producing any significant amount of sugarcane in The United States versus what will be coming in as imports, and is this really a tariff play? You know, I got a tariff war veteran hat on. I I thought some of your guests would probably appreciate that. But, you know, is it is it more of a tariff game of, hey. We're gonna import this, and now we're gonna charge on the imports. You know? So is it is it a is it a double edged sword? I don't know. Yeah. I mean, it's hard to know if they're, playing checkers or, you know, three d chess or just gnawing on the checkers.
[00:08:58] Unknown:
Like, it's really difficult to know that. To me, it seems like there is a lot of cane sugar, and you got to imagine that a lot of acres that are going to something right now, if all of a sudden there was demand by the beverage industry, you know, you've got Louisiana, you've got Florida, you've got Texas. But the refining part of it, I don't think you can kick that on as quickly as you can convert acres over. So you may have a real point there. I think, I think once the the activist community that is against high fructose corn syrup recognizes and sees that a company like Coca Cola can change, they will just turn up the pressure and say, well, these guys did it so you can do it more. So it really could be a lot like Roundup. I think that's a great comparison.
Yeah. Alright. Heading into story number two, the USDA ends race and sex criteria for Farm Aid. On July 10, the USDA ended race and sex based criteria for farm loans and grants effective this fall after lawsuits challenged the socially disadvantaged designation for women and minority farmers. For thirty years, 20% of farm loan value, about 4,000,000,000 annually, was reserved for these groups to address what was considered historical discrimination in land and capital access. This impacted 320,000 minorities and 1,200,000 women farmers who received $60,000 on average per loan compared to 75,000 for others. Now I I looked into this gap. The gap stems from totally rational policy. Most of these are smaller loan sizes, are reflecting the smaller farm operations and lower collateral among these groups.
But ag secretaries, Brooke Rollins says the change ensures, quote, equity through fairness, but the National Black Farmers Association warns it could deepen disparities, leaving small farmers vulnerable. Voices on acts are split, some praising equal access, and others decrying the loss of support. So, Shay, I have to wonder if there's some farms that are run traditionally, but we're leveraging that they got access to 20% of these loans by putting either a minority as the head of the of the farm or a woman. Do you think that that was the case? And is this gonna impact a significant number of farmers?
[00:11:12] Unknown:
Yes. It was the case. I know that for a fact, because of the consulting work that we do. People structure businesses to create the most tax advantage, to create the most business advantage, to take advantage of the programs as any business does. And, you know, I I mentioned frequently that I am a fan of or I am a realist. And so what I would say is the reality is there are people that are going to utilize those programs if that's the reality of their situation. Now is the, woman of the farm operation that's listed on the loan, the one that is the primarily engaged member member as an example here? Or, as as a veteran, I am under that minority status.
If I was not the primary operator in my business, does that mean that I should be able to or that I should take advantage of that loan for the betterment of the business as a as a, quote, unquote, minority member as part of this. And and I don't know if if the veteran status is part of that or if that was excluded as part of it, but it is it's kind of interesting because I think there's some dialogue that could be had there about, well, where do you draw the line on race, sex, equality, other communities that are listed as minorities? So all all that to say that the first part of your question is, yes. I know for a fact that that has been taken advantage of. No different than you have people that structure businesses to create liability protections, to create tax advantages. It it's just the way of the world. It's it's the reality of the America that we live in today. Now what does that look like moving forward?
I think to your point, when I initially saw this headline, my thought went to these are the smaller loan values that were mentioned, the the $40.50, $70,000. It's not $500,000 to go put up a grain site. Maybe maybe they have taken advantage of that, or maybe that has been part of the program in the past, but I would guess that the majority of who this is affecting is those smaller, loan groups that don't have the collateral to back that. I don't I try to stay far away from the from the equity and equality conversation just because, well, for a lot of reasons. But I I would say that there maybe is some truth to the fact that it could have an impact on who is capitalizing on those loans and who is taking advantage of the lending programs.
So whether that has a positive impact on agriculture or negative, I'm not sure. I do think it's it's worth evaluating who the USDA is lending money to and why. Is it for food and fuel production? Is it for food security in your community? Who are the people that are willing to take those risks and that are the ones that are interested in creating those avenues or those opportunities. So if someone is interested in developing a local farmer market or community program that needs a $30,000 loan to get started, and they were able to take advantage of some of these programs and they're the audience that's going to do it, maybe it shouldn't be based on sex or race, but geography or disposition or needs of the community. So, you know, there's a lot of things that can probably, be revamped with a lot of these organizations, the USDA, the FSA, any of the internal government organizations, but maybe maybe the criteria just needs to change. Maybe they need to be a bit more strict instead of looking at these categories of race and sex and say, what is our purpose in helping to serve the community?
And more importantly, what are the people, the constituents
[00:14:57] Unknown:
of The United States asking of an organization? What would they like to see? What's gonna benefit the greater community. So it's a lot of rambling there, but I I I think you got a group. It's it's to me, it's it's unlikely that the USDA is ever gonna be able to come in and do that kind of scalpel level local, what do you need for geography? The government works as not not just a a broad sword. It's like trying to do surgery with a two by four. And, and I think you're not gonna get that. One thing that I think is a big positive of this is if you're reserving twenty percent, for people based on these immutable characteristics, their sex or their race, there's gotta be some people that were really close to the line that that maybe they had the collateral. Maybe they were really close to being able to get access to capital, and they were knocked out just like the college admission where you've got the kid that he he did everything right. He was right on that line, but there were other people that were being put in front of him, not through meritocracy.
This is going to make it so the people that are getting access to taxpayer money for these loans is based on a meritocracy. And what you may see is people that are better able to put that money to use and better able to make their crops grown, efficiently and effectively. The downside definitely is once you lose these farmers from any group, they're not coming back. It's it's just too hard to come back. So I I do recognize that if you just rug pull this and and people have been counting on it, you're you're gonna have lasting generational impact.
[00:16:31] Unknown:
Do you have other options through small business administration, though? You know, does it have to be through the USDA programs that already exist, or are there other business avenues that just aren't directly tied to agriculture that could still facilitate those programs? I think I think that's a question worth asking. And and then to follow-up to your point, yeah, the college admission is a great example, and I I'm a firm believer in meritocracy from a standpoint of let's put the best people in the positions to succeed and to achieve the goals of whatever the organization is, whether that's a university, whether that's a government program, whether that's a private fund. Utilize meritocracy. Put the best people in that position and let them succeed.
[00:17:10] Unknown:
Alright. Moving on to story number three. Trump's farmworker exemption plan sparks outrage. On July 16, the White House borders are Tom Homan said the Trump administration is exploring exemptions to shield migrant farm workers from deportation, citing the need to harvest crops as 320,000 undocumented workers, half of US farm labor, are critical to agriculture. You've definitely seen Trump floating this idea at some of his rallies, putting this idea out there, trying to test it to see what the world thinks. And farmers are warning that without, undocumented workers, crops could rot, spiking food prices. The American Farm Bureau notes that forty two percent of crop workers lack legal status and h two a visas don't meet year round needs like dairy.
However, prominent Trump supporters, including influencers like Jack Popasek, on x are outraged with thousands of posts claiming that the policy betrays his base by by prioritizing cheap labor over Americans. Critics like the Center for Immigration Studies argue it justifies slave like conditions and suppresses wages as undocumented workers earn 15 to $18 an hour versus 20 to $25 an hour for citizens. Homan insists that this is not amnesty, but talks with labor and agriculture aim to reform h two a visas. Shay, where you at on this issue?
[00:18:35] Unknown:
Vance, do you remember, 2022, 2023 major global shipping issues? Everything was backed up. You know, my Amazon packages took seven days to get here instead of three. It was a real crisis. But bigger picture, you had a lot of people that were worried about what was going on in the shipyards. You had the LA, shipyard crisis, workers went on strike or whatever. And, ultimately, what came out of that, part of it was a increase in wages and and some sort of settlement deal for through the labor unions. But what people realized is we're just gonna get robots to do it. We're gonna train the technology. We're gonna get QR code scanners. We're gonna have machines to operate.
I think long term, what's gonna happen as a result of this over a period of time, I'm not saying instantly, you're going to have, smart agricultural products such as robotics doing a lot of the work, and it's it's out there. The the technology is there in a lot of this. What I would say my initial reaction to it, though, is, you know, people voted for Trump in the camp because they liked his aggressiveness. They liked his strong approach. They liked his staunch values of we're gonna do this, and this is how it's gonna be as as it is with a lot of political candidates. But you're starting to see, I think, a falter of the supporters on the Trump camp of the Epstein list wasn't published.
The deportation has been strong, but not what was promised. The wall is not built, you know, peace through strength, and then we hit Iranian nuclear facilities. So I think what you're starting to see is a lot of people say, why are we making all of these perceived concessions for what we voted for? And when it comes to the farm worker labor, I think a lot of the a lot of the, staunch Trump supporters are looking at it and saying, why should we make exemptions? This is what we voted for. We want to not have illegal immigrants regardless of the role that they fill. Because what if that it was a, you know, this is maybe a less likely scenario. What what if that was a, CEO of a prominent business, and now we're saying, oh, they're too big to fail.
So they're you know, we're not gonna deport them because they're too important. Well, what precedent does that set? You know, it it's it's not what was promised.
[00:20:56] Unknown:
Yeah. You know, when you go out and listen to Trump's base, they are retorting back to people being like, hey. Food prices are gonna shoot through the roof. They're like, you know, hey. Wait. Like, so what are you advocating? Slave labor? And then they're pointing out, hey. When there is this big raid on the Nebraska, meat packing house, the very next day, the waiting room, the HR was filled with American workers that wanted those higher priced jobs that they couldn't get before. And I think that, the Trump is is really showing that there must be a lot of horse trading that he has to do to get things done because the things that mattered the most to his base, and I think this one is among them, he's not delivering on. And I wonder how many of these things, he can float on this. He's probably also gotta have tremendous pressure from farm organizations, from banks, from from anybody that is is really worried. Will we be able to get the harvest in? And I don't I don't know how this is gonna play out. What do you think? Is his base gonna be able to push back hard enough to get him to stay the course?
[00:22:04] Unknown:
A topic that we didn't have here was the potential for Bayer and other herbicide companies to be exempt from EPA restrictions on the ongoing Roundup lawsuits. And I think that just exacerbates the amount of mass critical mass that is behind the lobby groups to be able to influence what goes on in the political landscape. So I and I think, you could probably have just as strong of a push on an issue like this. And where that goes, I don't know. I I think food security is always gonna be a big national issue. I think people are going to want some sort of phase program that addresses the issue but doesn't create immediate issues. It it's gonna be interesting to watch develop over the next few months.
[00:22:50] Unknown:
Yeah. And I think, for Trump's sake, he probably would much, much rather be talking about this than why people are well, then the people that are asking him about why haven't you released the Epstein list. So for him Yeah. Maybe bringing up amnesty is a way to move the conversation on. Alright. That is gonna do it for the headlines today. If you have headlines that you think I should cover on the Ag Tribes report, you can send them to me at Vance Crowe on x or [email protected]. Moving on to the Bitcoin land price report. Whew. Well, last week on Thursday, we were at a new all time high of 116,000. And this week we are up 3% at 120,500, which is no longer the all time high because the all time high has was a 100 and 23 over the weekend.
So this has, been wildly, increasing prices, but let's convert that into the only other truly scarce asset out there, land. Shay, what county do you live in and how much does an acre of high quality farmland cost?
[00:23:54] Unknown:
So I'm here in, Marshall County, Illinois, which would be the top third of the state. And I would say land prices have been between $13.05 and $16.05 depending on quality, so we'd settle at around 15 as we look moving forward. Yeah. That's a you did the math on that. What is that from a Bitcoin standpoint?
[00:24:12] Unknown:
Yeah. Well, with Bitcoin, at around a 120,000, that is point $1.02 4 Bitcoin per acre. In other words, one Bitcoin right now would buy you a little bit over eight acres in Marshall County, Illinois. How does that, how does that sit with you?
[00:24:31] Unknown:
I I asked you before we started here what Bitcoin was in 2019 and when COVID was released because that's really when we started to, see this massive increase in inflationary cost and government spending that's had such an impact on our everyday lives, it was $3,800 for one Bitcoin. So at that time, if land prices were around 13,000, 12,000, 13,000, it would take $4.03 3 and a half to 4 Bitcoin to buy one acre of land. If you had maintained that 3 and a half Bitcoin to today, you'd be sitting on $400,000 that now buys 20 acres of land or 30 acres of land.
So how does it sit with me? I think you have to ask yourself, let's be realistic of what has occurred over the last six years in Bitcoin. What's gonna happen in the next six years? And if you have not been committed to being part of Bitcoin or understanding it or realizing its potential, Vance, I don't know where else I can go and get a 25 x return in a six year period. And is there gonna happen again?
[00:25:46] Unknown:
There's no there's no private equity. There's no hedge fund. Nobody is making the kind of returns that Bitcoin is. And you brought up a great point. I I get into this, discussion regularly on on Twitter. Keith Dorman is always poking me because I say Bitcoin is going to demonetize land, meaning you are like, you're gonna look at private equity. They're gonna look at, should we invest in land as it comes up for sale, or should we invest it in Bitcoin? And right now, it's been just dumped into land. Whenever land comes up, there's always somebody to buy it. But pretty soon, you're gonna start having the the, shareholders of this private equity. They're gonna say, hey. What what the hell are you doing? The return you're getting on land is nowhere near what you're getting on Bitcoin, and you're gonna watch the monetary premium that's gone into land evaporate, and it's gonna evaporate overnight.
And people are like, well, I mean, the prices of land keep going up and you're like, yeah, you're right. The number of dollars it takes to buy land keeps going up, but the number of Bitcoin that it costs to buy land keeps going down. And I'm not saying this to, like, dunk on anybody or to celebrate this. I am just saying the future is is going to be different than what it is right now. And land prices that have historically gone up may not go up anywhere near as fast as inflation.
[00:27:03] Unknown:
So if if Bitcoin's a 120,000 today and it has a 25 x increase again over the next six years, that's $3,000,000. If you take that, let's say land goes up to 18,000 in that time period, you can now buy a 160 acres with that same investment that today would buy you 10 acres.
[00:27:23] Unknown:
You're singing my language, man. You're you're you're the first guy that I've ever had on here that gets it like this. I I appreciate this, and, it's it's one of those things that I think is so deeply important for ag to be thinking about, how can I diversify? I don't even need to buy a lot. Just buy your tiniest little amount to learn how the thing works. And once you get over that little tiny hill, put $50 in or a $100 in. Once you know how to do it, boom, you're gonna realize, I don't know why I waited so long, and I am not going to be the last guy in on this. And by the way, if Bitcoin devalues land, that $3,000,000
[00:28:00] Unknown:
now buys more than a 160 acres.
[00:28:03] Unknown:
This is what I've been saying, and you've said it way, way better than I ever have. I'm so glad I asked. Alright. In the spirit of of this Bitcoin, right now, I charge 0.0087 Bitcoin for an online legacy interview. And it dawned on me that I haven't been talking about what the prices of my things are in land, so I'm going to start doing that. If you want to, buy a, a, legacy interview using Bitcoin and you buy it in the next week, I will sell it to you for 0.0075 Bitcoin. So more than, 10% off. But you gotta pay in Bitcoin and you gotta schedule it before August 31. So I would love to do that. Contact me. I will give you an address, and we'll make that happen. And also if you're thinking about buying, Bitcoin, definitely use the affiliate link we put in the show notes, on this show because that will support the show, and it will also give you $5 in Bitcoin after you make your first $100 purchase.
Alright. Moving on to the Peter Thiel paradox. This is where I'm gonna ask Shay, what is one thing that you believe that almost nobody you know agrees with you on?
[00:29:10] Unknown:
The next five years of lending is gonna make people's heads spin. And I think the same thing that we see with the blockchain technology that goes into Bitcoin is going to happen in the egg lending space, and I would argue that less than point 5% of farm operations are prepared for that to happen. And what I mean is connected data, connected financials, instantaneous real time risk analysis from the lending institutions to you as a farm operation. Right now, lending is a highly, highly relational environment. I experience it in our operation. I see it with the operations that we work with across The United States and Canada.
I think as we move forward, there will be instantaneous access from artificial intelligence integration programs to decide, is it smart to lend Vance money? Is it smart to lend Shea money? What rate are we gonna lend to Shea? What rate are we going to lend to Vance? And you're not gonna see prime plus x amount to the agricultural farming community somewhere between seven and a half and 9% today, you're gonna see 15% to your high risk, and you're gonna see 6% to your low risk returns. And it's the people that are borrowing tens of millions of dollars and have the financial data and have the metrics and have the tight end access that are gonna get 6% interest rates. And the people that are running 500,000 acre operations, highly leveraged, don't have data connectivity, don't have good balance sheets, cash flows. They're gonna be operating at 15% interest rates.
[00:30:51] Unknown:
So if that is what you think, and this is a novel, whole picture that I've I've heard about this. If you think that, what what's the move somebody makes right now?
[00:31:01] Unknown:
Everybody says data is being used against us. Okay. Use data against everybody else. Use your data. Get on track with what you need to be recording. Are you are you providing good cash flows? Are you providing real time information to your marketing plan? Are you capitalizing on your marketing plan? Do you have good projections for the business? Have you the ability to map out how your balance sheet has grown over the last five years? These are basic things that your lender has been, like, beating you upside the head for the last five, ten, twenty years to do, but there hasn't been enough pain to encourage a lot of operations to do it.
And carrots have been too few and far between to incentivize a lot of people to do it, and I think the pain is gonna be I think the pain is gonna be really fast, and I think it's gonna hurt a lot.
[00:31:49] Unknown:
Well, one thing I can say because when you start being afraid of things like, I'm not a numbers guy. It seems very intuitive, for you that you just, like, pop on your computer, start thinking in numbers. One thing that AI has done for me is when I'm sitting down with my accounting software, I get a term I don't understand. I start thinking about, you just go to AI and you ask it, and then you have it explain it to you. And then you you throw it your numbers, and then you say, help me figure out where I should be putting this. What's going on here? And it is a teacher unlike anybody else because you can do it. You can get this teacher at 10:00 at night, and you're not searching through Google or wading through YouTube videos where you gotta watch an ad and then kinda slowly go through this. You have someone that has a the the a PhD in every single aspect of accounting that you could possibly have waiting to patiently answer your question for $30 a month if you get GRAC four. What do you say to that? I think
[00:32:45] Unknown:
a listener today could go in, download their last five years of transaction history from their bank, create some rough categories as a proxy or as a prompt for Grok, and say, create me a cash flow analysis based on the last five years, and I wanna project that for 2026, put it into a chart format, and create a presentation and a two page write up on the future of my business and why it would be important for someone to lend it to me, and it would do it in about ten minutes.
[00:33:17] Unknown:
Shay, we are gonna have you on for a full podcast. We're gonna have a discussion about this and a couple of other things. So we're gonna keep this show moving on, but you have shown me this is this is gonna be a great discussion. Let's move on to the last segment. This is where I ask you about your worthy adversary. Who is one person that you respect
[00:33:35] Unknown:
but strongly disagree with? I I love this guy, so I'm gonna say this, with all the love in the world. Damien Mason and I, we disagreed over a recent post about, whether Dollar Generals are good for rural communities or whether they are not. And, you know, I I joked with you. I tried to pick Neil Degrassi Tyson, and you said, no. It has to be someone you actually know. The reason I I I choose Damien or that I choose Neil, the lesson that I have taught or that I have learned from them, that they have taught me is how someone reacts to an opposing viewpoint says more about that person than what the viewpoint actually is. I could say something to you that you totally disagree with, and how you react tells me more about who Vance is than the actual topic that we're discussing.
And Damien is very good about making comedic inflammatory remarks that get people riled up, and I think, I know, he's smart enough to know what he's doing and the impact that that has on people. So I say that with all the love in the world, there's things that Damien and I disagree with. We get along on a lot of things as well, but it says more about the person that you're interacting with than it does about the question that was posed.
[00:34:50] Unknown:
Yeah, man. There is absolutely no doubt that that guy can stir things up. I I don't think I've ever seen him give a talk or or even do one of his podcasts where he is not finding some stick to poke into somebody's eye about the way they think about things. And, like, it's it's, it's not my style, but when he's poking somebody else, you're like, alright. Let's see what the how they react to this little stick poke. So I think that's a that's a good choice. And by the way, I didn't give you a score on your Peter Thiel paradox. I'm gonna give you a, 8.5. I think it's good. I don't think it's actually all that countercultural, but I do think you're the only one saying it right now. So I I do think that's that's worth a good score. Okay. Great. Alright. So we are gonna close out. But before I go, Shay, tell us a little bit about, AgView Solutions and, you know, who who works with you and and, how do you guys work with them? So AgView Solutions,
[00:35:43] Unknown:
we're our our motto is to help people and businesses thrive in agriculture, and we're focused on farms and ag businesses. Our our bread and butter is helping people through the challenges that they have that are common to farm operations. So things like transition planning, business structuring, how do you collaborate with a nearby farm operation, and how do you navigate the changes or really try to effectively manage the opportunities that are coming at you in a business. And man, the opportunities are massive in agriculture right now and will continue to be massive. We facilitate farmer peer groups across The United States and Canada. That's a phenomenal experience.
And and probably what a lot of your listeners would be interested in too is we do what's called the AgView Executive Business Conference every year. We have you coming out to speak here in 2026 out in Phoenix, Arizona. It's a great event. We open it up to 150 to 170 farm operations, and you get to think business focused. It's it's not a conference that we don't have any sales, we don't have any pitches. It's it's just for people to go and think about their business and to interact. So that's the long short of it. We we do a cost of production software called Farm Profit Manager, farmprofitmanager.com.
We do a podcast called the Ag View Pitch, but we're we're here to help and provide value to farm operations and businesses. I love this community. I love interacting with people like you, Vance, and, just thank you for the opportunity to be on here.
[00:37:13] Unknown:
Well, I'm so glad you did come on. I do wanna I wanna throw something out there to you. This is I didn't tell you this ahead of time, but within the span of about a week and a half, I was talking to two different farmers, people in the ag community, and both of them are like, oh, man. They've got a farm transition. It is a total mess. I I think I gotta call Shay on this one. And then in totally different one was like, oh, man, what a mess. I gotta get my buddy hooked up with Shay. And I was like, that is, is definitely saying something about whatever it is that you're doing with succession, with farm transition, that two completely unrelated guys in ag on different parts of the country knew who you were and said, you're the guy that can help the family navigate a a big challenging situation.
[00:37:58] Unknown:
Well, thank you for that. And and I would give kudos. Chris Baron is who has been doing this for twenty five or thirty years. Chris is actually my stepdad, so it's a it's a family business. And my wife and I are are the future of Agnew Solutions. We have, five consultants as part of the team. And, you know, I tell you there's a lot of things that adding the other associates to our team that we didn't expect, And it's it's the rising tides flow all ships because now we have five people as part of our team that, you know, Vance may know this and I know this and Chris knows this.
And and that's what Andy and Jeremy and Joe and Chris and I all kinda work together on. And so I would just say, maybe those those commentaries have been a result of bringing on the right team members. Our team here with the with AgView Solutions, we call it the AgView Nation, just kind of for fun, internally. It it's been so much fun to work with them, and I would, you know, I would say that we do our best to provide as much as much value as quickly as possible to operations. So, I'm really glad to hear that. Thank you for sharing that.
[00:39:06] Unknown:
Well, thanks for coming on, Shay, and, look for the invitation for a full on podcast. Alright. That's gonna do it for the Ag Tribes report. I did wanna remind you that if you're thinking about getting a legacy interview, this is where I sit down with your loved ones to record them telling their life stories about their childhood, about their careers, about the things that they've learned along the way. Go to legacyinterviews.com. And if you buy buy in the next week, I'm and you use Bitcoin, I'm going to give you, over 10% off. You can buy a bit you can buy a legacy interview online session for 0.0075 Bitcoin.
And, otherwise, you can pay in US dollars. It's a great deal. People love it. And, also, if you've been thinking about buying Bitcoin and you wanna use the exchange that I use to buy all my Bitcoin, use the link below to river.com that will both support the show. And it will, offer you $5 after you spent a $100 on your first Bitcoin purchase. All right. That's gonna do it. We'll be back next week with another guest host. And as always, feel free to disagree.
Introduction to the AgTribe's Report
Meet Shay Folk: Farmer and Consultant
Trump's Push for Coca Cola to Use Cane Sugar
USDA Ends Race and Sex Criteria for Farm Aid
Trump's Farmworker Exemption Plan
Bitcoin Land Price Report
Peter Thiel Paradox
Worthy Adversary: A Discussion on Disagreement
AgView Solutions: Helping Farms Thrive
