Citadel Dispatch

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EPISODE: 0.3.5

BLOCK: 696280

PRICE: 2228 sats per dollar

TOPICS: happy hour open ended discussion, narratives, supply chain issues, hyperinflation, stagflation, proof of work, mining with stranded energy, bitcoin legal tender law in el salvador

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[00:00:02] Unknown:

How's it going, MBK?  

[00:00:06] Unknown:

Can't complain.  

[00:00:08] Unknown:

I was busy setting this up. This is my first time hosting a Twitter space.  

[00:00:15] Unknown:

I Wanna add cohost, so I think it has less chance of dropping.  

[00:00:21] Unknown:

Okay. I'm assuming you're insinuating I should make you a cohost.   No.   I'm going to do that. Don't make me regret it.  

[00:00:31] Unknown:

Do I wait to  

[00:00:34] Unknown:

keep you in? It should've just popped up on your screen. Anyway, everyone listening,   usually, we have Citadel dispatch on Tuesdays. Happy Bitcoin Tuesday to everybody.   I wasn't able to put together a solid topic with guests this week.   Seems a lot of people are on vacation.   So instead of pushing a show   that was not up to my standards, I decided that we would try this, a more open ended,   happy hour style,   discussion.   It is being recorded.   I am 99%   sure the recording will work,   but   what's that saying? Every plan,   doesn't survive initial contact, so we will see after this happens if it actually recorded. If it does, you may be listening to this on the Citadel dispatch   podcast feed.  

I apologize if the audio quality is   inferior to what you're used to. It is what it is.   Feel free to skip this episode if you choose to.   Next week, I already have a solid topic and guests lined up. We're gonna be talking about   privacy focused, open source,   routers,   you know, that that Internet box you have in your house that is most likely spying on you and how you can choose to have a better replacement.   So this is gonna be more open ended.   Just kinda shoot the shit,   and, you know, there's I feel like there's a lot of stuff that's been going on this week. I personally have been,   I don't know. I've been feeling like my back's against the wall a little bit in terms of narrative shifts, and,   I mean, we got that Space Force guy that's, like, tweeting out that Bitcoin is violence and that we're a cyber militia. So,   personally, that's kind of where my head is at. But, I have a whole list of topics just in case the conversation gets stale. I'll be rotating people in and out on the speaker stage. Feel free to request   speaker permission, and I will get you up here.  

I sent out a tweet.   If you respond to that tweet with questions,   we may or may not get to them,   but we will try to get to them. Right now, all I got is Enrique up on the speaker stage   of cold card. Repeat guest is still dispatch. How's it going, MBK?  

[00:03:00] Unknown:

Good, man. The chainsaw noise stopped. Twelve trees down today.  

[00:03:06] Unknown:

Twelve trees down today on your citadel?  

[00:03:08] Unknown:

Yes.  

[00:03:11] Unknown:

Impressive.   That's all you?  

[00:03:13] Unknown:

No. I,   these these were over 70 foot.   Like, I need I need to enlist people  

[00:03:20] Unknown:

who, who know how not to die.  

[00:03:25] Unknown:

We got Ben up on the stage.   He just, recently   had his most famous day, I would say, Ben. What what the fuck happened in 1971   when trending? How was that?  

[00:03:38] Unknown:

Dude, that's crazy, man. That's,   bigger than I thought I was gonna we were just gonna try to, like, get Nick Carter in a in a room, and then Nick Carter had some other things he had to do. And then fucking Jack   tweeted it, and then it was like,   Lummis and,   Davidson tweeted. Everybody tweeted. So I appreciate all the support. It was awesome to get the word out about I mean, not just WTO happened in 1971, but, like, you know, the whole concept itself. There's a lot of posts from from all over the space. It's great.  

[00:04:09] Unknown:

Hey, Matt. I don't know. Did you did you miss we had a whole   spaces, I think, yesterday or the day before,   to discuss,   Bitcoin's violence.   Did you join in?  

[00:04:22] Unknown:

No. I missed that. You want to,   you wanna give, us a synopsis?  

[00:04:29] Unknown:

Yeah.   So so I don't think the guy is coming in bad faith.   We we had it was kinda cool because I don't know if he's allowed to or not to join because of his job,   but we had another guy who who's   who seems to be qualified   or well versed enough in the military sort of, speak,   maneuver.   What is it?   Something maneuver. They have a term.   And he was sort of, like, playing the the   the that that Space Force guy for us, right,   while we were trying to sort of discuss and understand this.   And it's it's like,   you know, when you were a hammer, everything is in hail. Right? So,   the guy has written this piece,   you know, with a military   sort of audience. Right?  

It is unfortunate   because it it does   drag us into a narrative that we don't wanna be in because Bitcoin is peace, and we don't wanna be characterized as, like, a militia or anything like that because that ticker will be on CNN at some point.   But   I don't think the paper itself or that guy   himself was trying to sort of,   to to do this in bad faith. I think that's just you know, he wrote his thesis.   It is fair logic in there,   but, we do part ways when it comes to definitions   and what is violence and the definition of violence outside of military   maneuvering   terminology.  

I think that's sort of, like, where the the water got muddy.  

[00:06:14] Unknown:

I don't know. Like, I was kinda giving him the benefit of the doubt a little bit.   So so we're talking about there's this guy on Space Force,   the new arm of our US military, I guess, is part of the air force,   who had, like, a LinkedIn post   that was,   instead of mutually assured destruction, Bitcoin is mutually assured preservation,   which captured a lot of people's imaginations. They really liked it. Then he ended up on Twitter.   He ended up going viral on Twitter. He got a ton of engagement.   And then he started switching into this, like, Bitcoin is violence thing. And   I thought, you know, maybe it was, like, too transparent   to to be, like,   some kind of attack or, you know, people are calling him a spook. He's literally a spook. Like, on his LinkedIn, his resume says spook.  

But then today, he tweeted out, you know, that   Bitcoin's a   decentralized cyber militia.   And in America, you know, we have constitutional rights,   but after the Patriot Act, it's become pretty much the de facto standard that,   you know, if you label a group terrorists,   then they no longer have any kind of real constitutional protections.   And this is a narrative that I was already concerned about,   and it kind of feels like   it wouldn't be surprising if his next tweet after the cyber malicious stuff is like, oh, we're terrorists. And then, you know, and then you start seeing it on CNBC   and all over mainstream media and stuff. And then before you know it, private Bitcoin usage   starts getting hit really hard. So I it's a really slippery, dangerous slope,   and the fact that anyone who calls them out, he blocks,   isn't very,   reassuring. You know? I  

[00:08:13] Unknown:

I think he doesn't know how to use Twitter.   Like, he he he's totally, like, new to Twitter.   He's coming from a very sort of, like, specific way on relating to people and ideas.   And and he doesn't know how to do Twitter.   And, you know, like, when when when you mask the Hornets,   the our,   wrongly called cyber militia.  

[00:08:41] Unknown:

We're not a militia. That is a joke. It's a joke. But we can't even joke about it. Like, it's something that we I I I think is beyond the level of a joke. Like, it is it is the narrative that we're gonna see play out. I mean, we we've seen it play out with encryption in the past. We've seen it play out with Tor in the past,   that these are tools that are only used by criminals, that if you use it, it's suspicious behavior.   And,   I mean, we we're watching it play out with encryption right now. Like, they're already saying, like, the Taliban the the reason the Taliban was able to take over Afghanistan so quickly   wasn't because of our incompetence.  

It was because WhatsApp. Yeah. Because WhatsApp's encrypted, and they were using encrypted messengers, and we need to be able to stop them from using that. Right?   We got Dylan up on the stage. Dylan, I've been trying to get you on dispatch for a while. I'm looking forward to finally making that happen, but at least this is, like, an intermediary step.  

[00:09:43] Unknown:

How's it going over there? 'Sup, man? Thanks for hanging up, man.  

[00:09:47] Unknown:

Yeah. I mean, don't don't have, too much to add on the the Space Force guy. I mean, I've kinda gone back and forth on,   his intentions. I think I think the like, we've been talking about like, Bitcoiners have been talking about, like, kinda like a global hash war for a while and, like,   you know, the mutual preservation thing is kinda interesting.   I think that has legs.   But, yeah, the tone of his his tweets over the last,   couple days has has taken a weird turn. But, I mean, definitely interesting to   to kinda see that that narrative of, you know,   Bitcoin as this   strategic national,   I don't know, just like, you know, kind of the game theory, the the global hash war that we've been talking about take hold. I don't know if it's like, I don't know if if I'm more on NVK side or your side, but, I I've been going back and forth on on his intentions.  



[00:10:38] Unknown:

So so what if we pose it this way?   I don't think we're gonna ever be able to avoid or shut down these conversations. Right? The bigger Bitcoin gets, the more the narrative is gonna get out of our hands. Right? We we can't baby it.   So,   we're gonna have to just sort of, like, meet them where they are.   If he is,   say, bad faith, right, he does have the DOD behind him, and he will find an audience that's much bigger than ours.   So, if if we engage with him and we're able to   to to counter his points in a way that's obvious that  

[00:11:21] Unknown:

I just accidentally removed envy k from the speaker stage. I just invited him back up.   Sorry, NVK.  

[00:11:29] Unknown:

Yeah. You you you censored me. You're a spook.  

[00:11:34] Unknown:

No. I mean, I don't think we should, like, quiet the conversation. I think open discussion's important. That's why we're having open discussion right now.   I just think it's a very dangerous narrative that people need to be careful about because it's gonna be used against us by our enemies whether he's an enemy or not.  

[00:11:53] Unknown:

I I agree, Matt. It's it's it's you know, we can always kinda say that, you know, you can use narratives and you can use analogies to kind of   to try to, like, you know, make paint any picture. And I think in this case, it's just it's not a helpful picture that we're painting.   You know, it's it's like trying to say that, you know, it's   if you need water, right, to live, then then, like, water is violence. Right? Like, Bitcoin is a tool that we use and, you know, any tool can be   used as a weapon, I suppose.   So that's you know, it's like saying hammers or or weapons or whatever. Right? I don't know. I just think it's it's it's just this framing issue. It's simple framing, and I think we pushed back on that pretty well. And,   I'm glad that we did.  



[00:12:40] Unknown:

I I think he definitely got the message.   And and to be fair, like, he didn't block a lot of people who are trying to engage. But, you know, when you have a 100 people   sort of, like, at the same time making the same point at you and and you're not used to Twitter, you know, the block does become a useful   tool.  

[00:13:03] Unknown:

It is pretty funny, though, how the about face   it's like he came in hot, and then everybody was like, get fucked, and he immediately switched his too.  

[00:13:13] Unknown:

Yeah. I mean, people are not used at, like, how   well prepared Bitcoiner Bitcoiners are to enter conversation.   So, like, everybody is always underprepared   when engaging with Bitcoiners,   and that become very clear very fast.  

[00:13:35] Unknown:

Chaz, we got you up on stage,   Chaz of Lightning Junkies. Fantastic podcast. If you're not subscribed already, you should go subscribe to it in your favorite podcast app, ideally a podcasting 2.0 app,   so you can stream stats to support his show.   Do you have any opinion on this before we, move to more, positive topics?  

[00:13:56] Unknown:

Yeah. Absolutely.   So, like, I think I care less about the guy in particular. Like, I've been trying to   not respond to any of those threads or even give a shit if I could help it.   But, like,   some some part of his   thought process may or may not be valid.   And I I I think I just posted my opinion of it and it's,   you know, it's not violence. Bitcoin is not violence. It's resistance.   So, like, the thing that I used to think about years ago was, you know, there might be some future where governments try to ban all, try to ban Bitcoin   and try to really,   you know, put the nails in   and make it a really difficult adversarial environment.  

And so in that sense, like, if if you were going to really push for the disintermediation   of the state, which I think some non zero percentage of people in this room kinda want that,   like,   you're going to use Bitcoin in resistance against the state.   So he was calling, you know,   like, that word. I can't remember what he said exactly,   militia.   So, like, I'm not sure that cyber  

[00:15:10] Unknown:

militia.   Decentralized   cyber autonomous militia or decentralized autonomous cyber militia.  

[00:15:18] Unknown:

There you go. I'm not sure if if that's valid or not exactly, but I don't think it's quote, unquote that far off.   Like, if we were actually in that kind of   adversarial scenario, I   I don't like, you could call it something else, you know, Citadelf,   defense crew, whatever.   It's   you're trying to reframe it, I guess, but it's   is it really wrong or false in that context if we were to really go to that like because I think a lot of people in this room think about that scenario.   So  

[00:15:51] Unknown:

But it's   like, the idea of Citadel theory is, and he specifically that triggered me a little bit too because, I mean, we are talk you know, this is if some people might be listening to this on the Citadel dispatch feed,   but he called Citadel's   military technology   and violence   as well. But the whole point of Citadel theory to me is this idea of peacefully opting out. You know, don't bother me. Let me have my localism. Let me have my, you know, local governance,   that fits my needs best, and I won't bother you. It's a   it's it's a   you know, there there are definitely some revolutionary   elements to Bitcoin, but it's a peaceful revolution while every single other alternative   is a violent revolution. So  

[00:16:44] Unknown:

But, Matt, like so I hate be the guy that sort of, like, defends some of his arguments. You're doing it. I know, but somebody has to, right, for being, like, not no. No. We have to. No. We have to be intellectually honest on this.   So so there is a few things going on. Right?   So I do agree with him that in a in a hyper Bitcoinized,   Bitcoinized world or close to it,   bitcoin is unavoidable.   Right? So   the being it's it's no longer voluntary,   right, to to for a stage to to have Bitcoin.   So in that sense, now it is forced.   When you're talking about, like, military maneuvering   and you're talking about, say,   for example, having defending   your your position, right, which is your peaceful Citadel.  

You you don't live in your peaceful Citadel in the absence of your environment. Right? You're still gonna need to trade or do something with with outside of your citadel because you're gonna need stuff.   Right?   So   if the people around you don't agree with your choices, they may try to start you out, for example. Right? So then how you manage those relations,   may incur some form of defense or whatever.   So it it it's just it sucks that, like,   the terminology   that, you know, a military guy is gonna use   is   the term violence because they have a specific definition for that, which is not our sort of libertarian definition for that.   So so I think it's more like talking past each other. Now if he's trying to inflame discussions about other things, I don't think so, but, you know, it's not impossible either.  



[00:18:31] Unknown:

If if we have Bitcoiners   if   if if his goal was a   so so this is the way I look at it. Like, if his goal was a way less effective meme attempt   that Udi   succeeded with. Right? Where Udi kept saying, good morning. Bitcoin's digital real estate. Right? And then   Michael Sailor goes on CNBC, and he's like, Bitcoin's digital real estate,   and   I expect us to pay property taxes. And and to be fair, he came back afterwards and was like, no.   You know? I I didn't mean property taxes. In that respect, I meant capital gains taxes. I didn't mean real estate property taxes.   But that's neither here nor there. If that was the goal,   he want the idea is to get a bunch of big corners, a subset of big corners to come out and be like, yeah. No. We're cyber hornets. We're the decentralized   autonomous   cyber militia.  

And then as as soon as you start getting that kind of rhetoric happening,   then it's the easiest sell in the world to say, well, we should have a military response to this cyber militia.  

[00:19:35] Unknown:

But those would you have some of the We saw I I didn't support necessarily  

[00:19:41] Unknown:

the protests that happened in DC.   Right? But   they were peaceful protests.   Nobody died. And within 2 or 3 days of narrative,   it became the insurrection.   Oh, for sure. And then they started hitting people as hard as possible. That you you you frame the narrative, and then as soon as you frame the narrative,   you're able to   get the general public,   who are mostly not on our side to begin with,   to completely go along with any kind of overbearing  

[00:20:13] Unknown:

response that results from it. Well, you could say the same about a lot of the the the privacy focus tools   and and and community where the rhetoric and the aesthetics   is fairly aggressive towards the state.   So you could say that you're essentially tipping the hand on the narrative   for the state to have an excuse to come knocking on your door.   Right? I I don't think we're gonna be able to escape that.  

[00:20:40] Unknown:

Do we have a, a clear picture of what Space Jason's   agenda?  

[00:20:46] Unknown:

Space Jason.  

[00:20:48] Unknown:

Yeah.   What's Space Jason's agenda might be, or is it just the the general sense that because of his The  

[00:20:55] Unknown:

the overt agenda   was to get,   the DOD   to essentially engage in bitcoin by mining and holding.   Like he stated, if I maybe I'm wrong, but I I'm almost certain he stated that that Dell was his goal. He wrote, a paper internally.   He made a point   so that the the DOD   engages with Bitcoin,   as a defense,   it's another defense weapon.  

[00:21:22] Unknown:

Got it. I just pulled Aaron up. Excuse me. Dieter, did you say that my freedom for privacy   is a kind of   violent,   action against the government?  

[00:21:35] Unknown:

No. Absolutely not. Like, see,   like, don't don't get frisky.   No. I'm I'm cool. I'm cool. Okay. So so that's that's not the point. Be cool, man. Cool. Is when we have,   people   adopting   aesthetics,   right, so, like, come and take it,   or,   you know, like, you you hear people saying, right, like, you know, mixing is a weapon against the state or shit like that. Right? It's not different than this kind of narrative that creates around this stuff. Right? So for example,   one that I find kind of awesome in a way, like, lightning should have been called   blackening   or something. Right? It's almost like onion for for Bitcoin transactions.  

And, you know, calling it like me, making it, like, fun and cute and all this shit, right, like, removes a lot of   that, that that narrative intensity   from the people that will try to cling to that.   So so so in that sense,   you know, like, a lot of the   the the the intensity and aggressiveness,   from the the   the the privacy   aesthetics in Bitcoin,   is very unhelpful.  

[00:22:48] Unknown:

Okay. I get you. And you gotta you gotta understand that   the cedar, the aesthetics that having a defense,   which,   might imply a kind of violence when you're defending.   It's not even like there. It's like, as I said, only aesthetics.   We don't need defense because   Bitcoin is like the first thing that they cannot lean on you. And if they cannot lean on you,   they cannot do do anything about it. So it's a 100% peaceful.   It's the other way around. And his argument and his argument   and his overuse of,   like, that word shot that he used to basically say the the most basic stuff we're saying for years now.   Like, it's completely a joke.  

And   I really didn't even like make I didn't like have the time to make a meme for the guy, and he blocked me for no reason.   Like, out of the blue.   I was only critiquing his, like,   one thread he did,   saying Bitcoin is like a war.   I don't know, man. Like,   was there like   a meeting to place and, like, with somebody decided,   let's promote this guy and let's, like,   let's have him take out the community and, like, he gets back to us. Like, because that that's how it feels to him. I think what happened is he has been posting on LinkedIn,  

[00:24:12] Unknown:

like, some, you know,   uninformed.   It doesn't even matter. He's been posting on LinkedIn for years, apparently, trying to get the peep the world that he live that he lives and works in into Bitcoin.   And then somebody from our community found some of those posts and promoted them on Twitter. He got a lot of engagement, and then he switched over to Twitter and started diving in and   trying to,   communicate the way and that he's used to doing in his  

[00:24:41] Unknown:

existing See,   you know, like so for example, we have this guy now called MetaTrinity   tweeting at me with links to this chat. Right?   Saying, you know, I'm all spin   and blah blah blah. So this is this is why it's so hard when to engage,   in in in, like, in conversation about this stuff. No, Trinity.   This is not spin. We're just being intellectually honest.  

[00:25:07] Unknown:

Coming First of all, 3 3 may be as a   girl. Yeah. Okay. Do this.  

[00:25:14] Unknown:

Yeah. Yeah.  

[00:25:15] Unknown:

Hey, Dylan. I'd love to hear your thoughts. I mean, it just it seems like it appealed to a subset of Bitcoiners who are pro militia,   pro self defense,   you know, and they were like, yeah. Military firing   rounds in a big air. Like, you know, this is and it just it and then it blew up because of their engagement, which is not representative of   stable coins and a whole bunch of other things that they wouldn't agree with, but they're just like, yeah. Military, strength, power. You know, this is what Bitcoin's all about. It's muted. Is it just for me?  

[00:25:51] Unknown:

It's just for you. I can hear Aaron.  

[00:25:54] Unknown:

No. For me, it's done. Can you hear me? You, Aaron. Continue.  

[00:25:58] Unknown:

Oh, yeah. Sure. That yeah. That was basically it. I just think it appealed to a subset, and then it blew up, and there should have been no reason. We can all forget about Space Force, Jason, and move on.  

[00:26:09] Unknown:

It's Space Jason.  

[00:26:10] Unknown:

Space Jason. One of his regarding one of his points. I mean, not not necessarily, like, himself, Jason, but,   I think one of the interesting things he said that got a lot of engagement,   was when he said the other day, he was like, Bitcoin is not consensual and not voluntary.   And, like, I kind of, in a way, agree, but I disagree at the same time.   You know, like, you have the option to adopt Bitcoin, but ultimately, your hand will be forced.   You know, what what are your guys' thoughts on that?  

[00:26:39] Unknown:

I mean, it's a different way of saying Bitcoin is inevitable.   Right? Or everyone gets the price they deserve. I think as you just said as you said, it's a it's a reframing   of a popular idiom.   I haven't been super dialed in on the dialogue, to be honest, but my sense is it's like when you're a hammer, everything's a nail. And whether or not his intentions are   neutral, good, or bad, he's just applying his lens, as ultimately we all do, to   Bitcoin. And there's many different ways to view it, and we all have a slightly different way of articulating some of those ideas, but I don't disagree with the overall concept.   I I found the framing,   the kind of, like, war game framing of   it to be problematic   for the reasons I think, and I came into this conversation a little bit late, everyone else was talking about, which is that   it creates a narrative that I think is probably bad for Bitcoin at this point in time,   but I'm not actually sure.  



[00:27:34] Unknown:

You know, Phee, you you said exactly what I said before you joined. Like, he's just using the terminology that he uses. Right?   Okay, Trinity.   Yes. Say your piece.  

[00:27:45] Unknown:

Hello.   Thank you for allowing me to speak.   You know,   I've just joined this community this year,   and I've read a lot. I've listened to a lot of podcasts.   I've heard a lot of different narratives, and Bitcoin can be so many things to so many people.   However,   you know, I woke up this morning and I looked on Twitter and saw that that I was now being,   or Bitcoin was now being considered or or the people that run nodes,   a cyber militia.   Like, this this framing is detrimental   to to the the network of individuals   who are are not violent.   And it's it can be said in a different way,   and he has said it a different way and just say it in that way. Otherwise,   you he'll continue to be mean to continue to because we have to to control the narrative, and we cannot be,   you know,   compared to a militia,   a violent militia, or or anything of that sort. It it causes danger. It's it's a dangerous   framing to have,   and we didn't ask for it, and it's certainly not the same   as other memes that you've mentioned. He hasn't done one meme. So it's just really out of context.  

And if you're talking to military people,   framing something as a threat or as nonconsensual   and all those things, I don't even see how that gets the DOD   involved or or interested in it it's just kind of weird and strange, and I don't get it. And I don't wanna be associated with anything like that.  

[00:29:24] Unknown:

Guys, I hate to I hate to say it to you, but the the narrative game, like, you know, we're probably in the,   you know, first couple innings here of of, you know That's right. When the when this whole Ponzi economy explodes, you know, like, this this fiat lie that we've been living in, that's that's, you know, on the last on the last legs,   you know, like, QE zero interest rate policy, this fake aid,   when it all actually explodes or implodes or, you know, however you wanna think about it, the narrative is these greedy is going to be these greedy Bitcoin   hoarders   caused this.  



[00:30:00] Unknown:

And and that's obviously And and they're gonna come in force. It's already coming in force.  

[00:30:04] Unknown:

But I agree. I agree. Yeah. And I don't understand why everybody is so fixated on this. Yeah. You can't control the you are not you're never gonna be your truth. Narrative. Money. Especially,  

[00:30:14] Unknown:

Bitcoin is digital. Fuck you.  

[00:30:16] Unknown:

Yep. Fuck you.  

[00:30:17] Unknown:

Yeah. Like, I I mean,   you know, that's what it is. And and, you know, as much as, like, you know, I'm pro beast person. Right? I hate war. But reality is,   you know, Bitcoin is a weapon of mass ending the state. Right? It it is the literal   Kryptonite for the state. Yeah. I mean Because states, modern states only survive by controlling the monetary system.  

[00:30:43] Unknown:

Right? No. Like We we Come on. Wait. But I I also just wanna say,   Trinity,   you you said we. You use this this this idea of, like, we can't allow this narrative to be pushed. And I think it's really important to acknowledge Bitcoin is different things for different people, and there is no there is no, like, CEO of Bitcoin. There is no core group. There's all of us and those of us who have There's not? Maybe some of us Well well well, that's great. He can stop complaining about the memes then. He he's acting like he should be treated a certain way, and it's a bunch of different individuals.  

[00:31:15] Unknown:

And he's whining and complaining about the memes. So he will continue to say Bitcoin is violence and all this stuff, and I'll continue to tweet that it's peace. It's fine.  

[00:31:24] Unknown:

We can   we we can't   control the narratives   that   that we can't control narratives that our enemies make, but we can choose which narratives we prescribe to and which narratives we discuss and how we frame Bitcoin.   And it's been a very it's been a very one second. It's been a very common tactic,   specifically in the United States. We've seen it in the United States where you have so called domestic terrorist   wings   that get shut down and you find out afterwards that the FBI informant was the guy in there who radicalized them and changed the narrative that they prescribed to. So it's absolutely important that as a community, we push back against harmful narratives,   regardless if we can technically control them or not.  



[00:32:13] Unknown:

So so there's nothing wrong with with   pushing against narratives. So I'm the first real estate.   Literally, the day it said, Bitcoin is fuck you. But   what what I'm trying to say is, like, if he's selling   the the narrative, right,   the audience to the narrative is not Bitcoin Twitter. Right?   If I was a bad evil   asshole   trying to create a narrative about Bitcoiners, the Bitcoiners are terrorists or whatever, I would be   the the narrative is the the audience is the the normies. Right?   And it's Bitcoiners are not engaging in that space.   Right? It's not like we're on CNN every day saying Bitcoin is peace or some shit like that. Right? So,   if the if the goal here is to to change the narrative with   a fact,   Right? Not just on our echo chamber. Right? With a fact,   then the engagement is outwards.  

Right? Just sort of trolling this guy to DAF. You'll probably quit Twitter,   but it's not gonna make it stop. If anything, it's gonna make it go in some places where we have no visibility  

[00:33:25] Unknown:

or we have essentially no soapbox to go on. Because we're already in those places. Yes. Bitcoiners are everywhere. You don't know who's who holds Bitcoin.   And then also,   if you worked for the state and Bitcoin is a weapon against the   state, it wouldn't make sense that you will find that favorable. The state pays your bills, is putting your children through college, and you're telling me that that is a favorable framing of a technology, that I'm supposed to adopt the very technology that will obsolete me? I I don't see how his framing is even useful   to regular people.  



[00:34:01] Unknown:

The the framing So maybe   The framing that   that Bitcoin is used by criminals and is is only used by criminals is a framing that has existed from almost the beginning of Bitcoin,   and it's been pushed back heavily to the point where we're starting to finally get past it in normie circles. But as far as, like, military circles, spook circles,   I've heard it from friends and family that operate in those circles.   They still very much believe that Bitcoin is a criminal activity. Bitcoin usage is is something that terrorists use, that money launderers use.   So so   regardless, those conversations are happening in the circles that we're not a part of.  

But we can con we we can   push back in the circles that we are a part of and push back on the platforms and the audiences that we have   to discuss Bitcoin   as I believe Bitcoin really is, which is a tool for freedom   and the ability for people to opt out of poorly managed economies and high surveillance states   that that are are basically tracking everything we're doing.  

[00:35:09] Unknown:

Yeah. I totally agree that I I think it's just that there's a lot more nuance here.   It's not black and white. Right? There is people in government that want to make government smaller.   The military,   it's not   a lot of times, it's not the military complex.   There's different people there.   And   when   when we just shut down conversation, we're not being useful.   We're not engaging. We're not sort of clearing out for the people who are watching   the conversation.   So if anything, it's actually kinda good that people see this guy being sort of, like, questioned   and have to engage   and being wrong and stuff. So that really actually helps.  

And,   you know, you can't   deny that, like,   you know, Bitcoin   if you   if your job depends on something, right, you're not gonna learn the thing that makes your job go away. So you could, you know, they could actually qualify Bitcoin as the thing that ends their thing. So it's violent towards damn and their means. Right?   It it it's just that, like, I I don't like black and white conversations. Like, it's like it it makes us all look dumb.  

[00:36:24] Unknown:

Well, you know, this isn't a black and white conversation.  

[00:36:30] Unknown:

Aaron, you were gonna say something a second ago. No. I mean, this is just a a minor  

[00:36:34] Unknown:

skirmish, apparently just for aerosol. I mean, we've seen Bitcoin be framed as a Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin is Chinese. Bitcoin is used by criminals.   Bitcoin   is for money launderers. Bitcoin   is torching the environment.   It's just gonna be always another narrative, and we've seen that when the buyer bill,   the, I mean, the amount of framing of Bitcoin as, you know, Satoshi's private money, as a wildcat banking system,   as in the many enhanced,   currencies that need to be curtailed. It's always going to be some narrative thrown at describing the industry in a way that favors the powerful,   the incumbents.  

And so, you know, there's kind of a there's an opportunity for   if anyone wants to kind of come up with a frame that's much more positive.   I mean, we've seen, you know, Dorsey try this, Bitcoin is world peace. We've seen,   to have fun staying poor meme circulate widely. People don't quite understand that. There's, you know, there's an opportunity to frame it in the way that a Bitcoiner wants to frame it rather than going on the defensive always. I think I'm not sure what that frame is, but I think there's an opportunity out there for Bitcoin to come up with the way that it actually should be understood. You know, digital gold works for a while, but it's not quite there. Real estate obviously was a catastrophe.   There's something out there that someone needs to come up with if they'd like to.  



[00:37:55] Unknown:

All set. Digital real estate was a catastrophe.   Aaron, I think you've wrapped up that,   subject pretty well.   I think, you know, we spent the last half an hour talking about,   space JSON.   It's probably best to move on to another topic.   We recently had,   BTC pay server release this new,   crowdfunding   campaign   to provide   dental care to poor   Salvadorians,   bitcoin smiles dot org. I don't know if there's much to discuss there, but, if you're listening to this and you have some extra stats, you should consider donating.  

[00:38:39] Unknown:

I've got an idea for a new topic.  

[00:38:41] Unknown:

It does.  

[00:38:43] Unknown:

So earlier this morning,   MBK put out a tweet, or I think he just left,   talking about foreseeing a major supply chain issue coming down the pike again.   I was wondering if we could discuss   what are some potential ways to prepare for something like that,   and and sort of defend yourself from, you know, any issues that might come up in your own life.  

[00:39:06] Unknown:

Oh, that's a great topic.  

[00:39:08] Unknown:

Hey. Sorry. I had to quit and come back. Otherwise, I couldn't hear Aaron. Aaron, I pretty much missed   90% of what you said, but I probably agree with it. We changed that. No no worries. Enrique, we've moved on to supply chain issues.  

[00:39:22] Unknown:

And, we had we had Nick Ward,   on the speaker stage. I think it's the first words he said,   but I love Nick. He's a good friend, and he wants to talk about supply chain issues and how we can prepare for potential issues there.  

[00:39:36] Unknown:

So   I was talking about supply chain issues actually on the Bitcoin summer thing with the bull Bitcoin guys   for a moment there.   And   so so through my vines,   right, of of, like,   just   sourcing parts for things we wanna make in the future because just how we develop products is bottom up as opposed to,   top down,   which is very similar to so okay. I guess let me give you a little primer here so people understand. So   when you when you work in a in a r and d heavy company,   right,   chemistry   engineering company or a big computer manufacturer   company.  

You pick your parts first,   and then you build a product from there up. Right?   When you when you were in a more sort of, like,   like, amateur, not not in an offensive way,   shop,   you normally   start with a dev board   or you start with, like, something that already exists,   and then you build the product   after you had that. You either redo it or you sort of build from that. Right?   But when you're dealing with with, like, lower level parts and sort of trying to source them, like, years in advance before building the product,   you sort of get more in touch with the with the distributors   that that deal with, like, carmakers   or things like that. Right?  

And and you get a little bit of a better scoop on what's going on. Right? And it's an absolute cluster fuck.   We I mean, we're we're talking about, like, you know,   manufacturers that that have pool   with the suppliers   are are forcing their hands  

[00:41:29] Unknown:

so that they can hoard parts,  

[00:41:32] Unknown:

and then there is subassembly issues. Right? So, for example,   say say you make a car engine. Right? There is another   1,000 manufacturers involving in making that car engine. Right?   And then there is other 1,000 manufacturers   involved in making parts of the part of the car engine. Right? Supply chains,   when they work and the way they're optimized nowadays is quite amazing. Right?   But,   when when they stop working,   things get very complicated   because the risk   due to sort of like a domino effect is very high. So for example,   few years ago,   hard drives   went   on on a huge supply chain shock. Right?  

So data centers couldn't buy the thousands and thousands of hard drives they buy because hard drives were either unavailable for purchase or were too expensive.   And all because   a spring factory,   okay, that makes the hard drive very precise springs   was, I think, flooded in the Philippines or something like that.   So just just so you see, right, that, like, you have a spring factory that then ships the part to whoever to then make the thing, that then makes the bigger thing.   It's very, very fragile.   So,   what we have now is we have,   the COVID,   sort of,   over,   oversupply   sorry, over,   over demand. Right? So people are bored at home buying a bunch of shit.  

And then you have people who wouldn't normally have money   getting a check to buy more shit,   and then you have   supply chain disruptions   from,   from COVID issues around,   shipping and warehousing or all the   have the fact that, like, all Hong all Chinese   factories banking Hong Kong now   getting screwed.   So they're gonna have to rework how they do their economics.   And then we now have the threat of China maybe taking over Taiwan where TSMC   is, where essentially everything that you use in your life   has a chip from there,   at least 1, if not all of them.  

So so we are at some serious risk. And Taiwan is fucked.   Yeah. It's just we don't know if the boots are gonna go on the ground, if they're gonna go over TSMC.   We don't know what's gonna happen. And contrary to what, like, politicians or people huffing,   whatever they are,   say, you can't just turn   the key and have a fab of that capacity anywhere else in the world. It's not like that. Right? This is the indicate.  

[00:44:29] Unknown:

I think you agree with Matt though that Taiwan is ultimately fucked. Right? Like, China is going to do something. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's happening. We we know that, but but the thing is  

[00:44:38] Unknown:

it's not in their interest   that as as as I see. Right?   Like, who knows? Maybe he's like that, Yongle.   Maybe z is like Yongle, and he's gonna burn his fleet because he doesn't want anybody to go out of China. Right?   No. They're gonna do, like, they're gonna do the Hong Kong strategy. They're gonna take it all over with no shots fired.   Yeah. I Oh, no. I I know. Okay. But that that affects the people. Right? I'm not sure if it affects the support team. The lack of the elastic because February.   We yeah. We don't know if they're gonna, like,   hinder TSMC   because remember, right, like, China is an export nation.  

Right? So if they they fuck supply chains, they they will get screwed too.   So it is tricky.  

[00:45:25] Unknown:

Yeah. They'll they'll maneuver the situation.   Well, yeah, the the people are screwed, but also it does create, as you were just acknowledging,   a huge issue for the rest of the world. As you said, you can't just, like, spin up a,   a 5 and 7 nanometer,   chip fab in   6 months or a year. My understanding is it takes, like, 2 to 3 years to actually build a to get a chip fab in place and up to full production.  

[00:45:49] Unknown:

And that's Absolutely not. It takes it takes a decade or 2.  

[00:45:53] Unknown:

Holy fuck. Are you serious? Yeah. It takes like a Yeah. It will take a couple decades.  

[00:45:57] Unknown:

Holy shit. It is even even worse. So about fabs. Okay. Just just for perspective. Okay? Fabs   are   the the pinnacle of human engineering.   Yeah. Okay? Like, there is nothing that gets close to that by by, like, a factor of a1000.   Okay? Putting people on space is a joke comparing to making chips.   And It's also the most capital intensive production process Yeah. In terms of research and development. You you burn cash. And and then there is, like, the level   of, like,   all the chemicals you need around that stuff, all the like, everything around it. Like, North America doesn't have the engineers for that, doesn't have the infrastructure for that.   Right? So you can't just turn this shit on. So when they made that announcement, I can't remember which fab, maybe a Samsung or somebody   wanted to open a fab in North America. I mean, they can do it, but there's not gonna be any reasonable capacity even close to what we're talking about here, and and it's still gonna take at least a decade.  



[00:46:54] Unknown:

Yeah. I think I think So what is gonna happen? Years to ONSAV and into Texas, but they probably will understand the fact that they might fuck. But it's I had no idea it was 5 to 10 years. That's crazy. I mean, we're It's more like that to 100. You know, we saw this with,   uranium. We saw this with shipping freights,   you know, containers going 10 x in price within a few months of the virus. I mean, these supply shortages happen all the time, and, obviously, right now, it's happening with chips. Problem is, obviously, underinvestment   on you know, there's no way to spin up these facilities within anything less than 5 years no matter how much money you throw at it. So, yeah, I see what envy is.  



[00:47:29] Unknown:

I mean, Aaron, imagine them just getting the EPA to be okay with, like, this is a very nasty process, by the way. Like like,   just and the chemicals you need to work in the plant themselves, they need to be made somewhere. Are you gonna ship them from China? Because it's the only place that makes most of the crap that goes into the facility to begin with.  

[00:47:49] Unknown:

Right? You you probably can't even open the refineries that you need to do that stuff in North America. You Time is time is back into It's not like Time is back into Bitcoin and, like, kind of monetary policy. Like, why does the US have no chip boundaries? Why are why are we importing everything we need from China and and Taiwan and all that? It's like, well, that's exactly Because China had no no environmental policies, like, extremely cheap labor. Well, yes. If that's the environment, it's cheaper. Exactly. Cheap. Right? Because of the tripping No. But it's not just cheap labor. I mean, you you  

[00:48:19] Unknown:

you have to be fair to them, though. I mean, they have put in, like,   50 years worth of people through engineering school.   Right? They you lift your hand there as a factory saying, I wanna hire engineers. Right? Like, I mean,   you have, like, a million of the best people in the world show up in line up in front of your factory, and a million people is nothing there. Right?   So   it's it's like it's like we we don't even have the human capital in North America to to get close to that. What's Let alone What's the Okay. So given  

[00:48:58] Unknown:

Dollars. I have no idea.   Yeah. Oh, okay. Point. Yeah. It's fucking dollars. Okay. Wait. So here's my question now. So we've established that,   the   chip fabrication   is, a real problem and that China is definitely going to fuck with Taiwan.   So what is the what do we think that the US's   response to that is gonna be? Or how is that actually gonna play out on the world stage?   Blowjobs. In February. I think you're right, Aaron.   Yeah. There'll be a lots of those, but then after the blowjobs,   how does  

[00:49:28] Unknown:

I mean, China China When everybody's smoking cigarettes the sole what happens then? The sole the only source of so many things that we require. I mean, we saw it just during the pandemic. There is still provider PPE,   Pharmaceuticals,   raw materials. There are so many things that only China, supplies, on   and on and on. So chips is just one of the other things they they own by way of owning TSMC in Taiwan, which they'll overtake after the Olympics sometime.   So it's just gonna be these are many supply issues re relating with China. China,   also is dependent on US dollar trade. I mean, almost everything they trade is US dollar denominated. So this is an inextricable relationship that we have with China.  

But as tensions mount, especially if they, you know, accelerate what they've done in Hong Kong and with Taiwan or anything   else, we patrol the seas, which is required for them to do international trade anywhere. If we stop patrolling their ships, they wouldn't be able to do trade with anyone and their economy would collapse. Likewise, they hold a bunch of US dollar nominated debt.   So they need the US dollar to you know, so there's a huge relationship of interconnectivity between United States and China. Chip is one thing. I think, MBK is getting at, you know, what China is doing regarding,   mining and production of these machines.  

They they had this kind of vast solution with Bitcoin. It's banned. It's not banned. We own a bunch of it. We don't own a bunch of it. Now they took this crackdown in preparation for their CBDC launch in February, which is their main focus   because they've kind of extracted all the money that they wanted to extract from Bitcoin, and now they wanna go on to, Remindi   promotion with the CBD thing. So they're gonna promote that, but then they ban Bitcoin in advance of that to make sure that everyone who's left is a cooperating miner   exporting their machines abroad, 15% of which went to the North America,   most of which was just shuffled around within China, but a a little bit went to Kazakhstan,   Kazakhstan,   the various other, you know, Stans.  

And so they're just kind of positioning now for this new phase of Xi's 5 year plan, which is coming up when he's gonna assume he's gonna break his next election is when he's gonna break,   the term that he's allowed to extend, and he's gonna essentially be emperor for life. And then he's gonna launch on his next 5 year plan, which is gonna be Digital Belt and Road, CBDC,   Taiwan, Hong Kong, and whatever else he's gonna throw on to the 5 year plan. And Aaron, what what's kinda funny  

[00:51:50] Unknown:

is that I you know, their original plan was to do all this with gold, but that didn't work out. These guys have been buying all the gold alongside. Right? Like, I mean, they were pulling out the gold, and then and then it was a flop. I mean, it's amazing that, like, they completely   mishandled   that.  

[00:52:07] Unknown:

Yeah. It's incredible. I mean, they still own a bunch of gold. They've obviously not been telling us anything about how much they own, but they own a ton. So is Russia. So is a bunch of other things. But their their,   ability to get this, you know, renminbi thing happening even in tiny countries, you know, like Uganda and and Nigeria and,   Ecuador and Nicaragua,   various small countries, Venezuela.   It's been working. I mean, they have quite a bit of trade now going on in this little tiny,   belt that they've established around the world. And once they can do this, hey. We have a digital renminbi, and it's easy to clear it, and you have final settlement.   You know, it'll be   something to to really watch, and they don't really care about Bitcoin anymore because they realize they don't control it. They thought originally they could, but they're realizing that they don't. So now, you know, it's it's pivot number 27 for Xi on Bitcoin.  



[00:52:56] Unknown:

So if you if you're the US I'm sorry, Matt.  

[00:52:58] Unknown:

Continue, Dylan.  

[00:53:00] Unknown:

Yeah. So, I mean, geopolitically, if you're the US and you see all this and you have, like, all like, you have decades of structural imbalance because of right? Like, we're we're the world reserve currency. So we we're a twin deficit nation. We we export our dollars   around the world. Like, that's our leading export. We have a current account deficit, and we run deficits. And then and, like, in a in a free market, if you're if you're running   deficits,   then you wouldn't you wouldn't have a current account deficit, meaning, like, you you export   more than you import.  

We we import goods from around the world and basically exchange our paper. And so geopolitically for the US, Luke Groman and, like, Lynn Alden and a bunch of these people are, like, are all over   this. You really like, the only play here, and I think this is kind of what they're starting to do and understand   is, like, they have to devalue.   They have to they basically, like it's it's strategic to weaken to weaken the dollar. Because if if not, a strong dollar is great for the rest of the world. It's terrible for the US, all of our domestic manufacturing and all that. And so, like, I think that's that's what some leaders are starting to understand and, like, you know,   it's it's great for capital markets and and all that for the for the world reserve currency, but for the average Joe, it's awful.  

You know, like, we can buy cheap stuff from China, but,   it's it's not good for for anybody outside of, like, the coastal elites and and, like, you know, DC.   And so I think that's people are starting to wake up to that, and it kinda ties into to China and geopolitical game theory and and all of that. But the world reserve currency is actually, like, pretty pretty awful for the US.  

[00:54:35] Unknown:

So we we started this   I I completely agree with that analysis, Dylan. I mean, that's one of the reasons why,   we hold Bitcoin,   and we're seeing,   basically,   the beginnings of this massive devaluation of the dollar more so than it's already happened.   But we started this   specific topic,   with a discussion of future supply chain shortages, and we we we already saw tons of supply chain shortages over the last 2 years.   And and Nick specifically wanted to know what he should do to prepare for it. I mean, there's there's one question saying what the US should do to prepare for it or what Koincite should do to prepare for it.   But what should the average Bitcoiner So or the average person right now be thinking? Like, are we gonna have you know, we're already seeing shortages in furniture and washing machines.  

As far as I'm concerned, we're seeing shortages in land. It's hard to purchase large amounts of land right now.   And I know that's completely different than the supply chain, but that's part of, like, a hyperinflationary   type of that.   Well, like, how do we prepare? Are there gonna be shortages of toilet paper again? Is that gonna be a thing again, or are we past that? So so  

[00:55:49] Unknown:

so in North America, right, in in reasonable   areas of North America,   if you have the capital capacity   to withstand,   spikes in prices on on goods that you need, you're fine. Right?   I don't think   the kind of   of   of issues we'll see will hinder people who have capital capacity.   Right? So say you really need the laptop is 30% more or double. Right? You still buy it. Right? It's still gonna be available.   The problem is it's gonna feel like hyperinflation.   It's gonna feel like   things are going up in price.   And,   but that's mostly because of supply shock. Right?   If that triggers   some other   known things about the price, I don't know. But,   like, things, for example, like cars. Right? There is already   supply shock on cars. There is supply shock on outboard motors for boats,   things that have more complexity.  

Right? It has a lot of parts.   Can you still buy a new car? Yes.   Can you buy the car that you want?   Unlikely.   Unless you're willing to overpay or buy on the secondary market.   So I think we're gonna enter a transitional   phase.   After this transitional phase, I don't know what happens, but I I know   or I strongly believe   that coming coming into the as as things restart after the summer in North America,   we're gonna start seeing   a lot of supply shock on things.   And if you don't have the economical   capacity to get something you need, you might be in trouble.   So I wouldn't   go out there and start, like,   getting a warehouse and filling up with crap,   especially toilet paper, because I don't think that that's a concern.  

I think you should be more concerned about amassing capital   that is not evaluating.   Right? So, like, Bitcoin,   so that you can then   pay for things that that you need,   at a higher price.  

[00:58:08] Unknown:

Yeah. It's very difficult as a consumer or even as a business owner to know   the supply jack issues too far in advance. I mean, you can see that maybe 3, 6 months out. But beyond that, it's really difficult, which is getting back to the core, you know, value proposition of Bitcoin, which is that no matter what happens in a word, you have this preservation of your purchasing power so that you can, you know, in whatever unforeseen event, be able to buy what you need to buy.   And I think the coin continues to prove that over time. But,   regarding chips, I think chips are gonna remain an issue, but I can also see it becoming something else. I mean, you know, a few months ago, it was lumber. A few months before that, it was shipping. A few months before that, it was whatever. It's gonna be something. So you have to have a plan in place for paying   much higher prices for what you would have otherwise purchased in 6 months from now because   depending on what happens with China, depending on what happens with Taiwan,  

[00:59:01] Unknown:

things could become extremely expensive very, very quickly. If you live in a developing nature sorry. If you if you live in a developing   nation,   it's essentially business as usual.   Like, you know,   you you're just gonna deal with a known factories and move on. Right? The problem really is that we got too cozy in North America or developed world really,   and and we don't manage   supply chains anymore. You know, hospitals only had the weak supply of PPE,   right, pre COVID.   So it's   just we're gonna have to adapt with, like, having a little bit more mindfulness on the stuff that we need  

[00:59:39] Unknown:

and prep for that. Yeah. This this global sat shortage is gonna be something to behold, let me tell you.   You better hoard them now.  

[00:59:49] Unknown:

Sat squeeze.   Nick. Oh, did we lose Nick? We lost Nick. I hope his question he considers his question answered.   I,   I mean, I I'm I'm pretty concerned about   it myself. I mean, I I think,   on on the Bitcoin side of things,   we can only expect ASIC costs to go up in terms of Bitcoin mining.   So if you are trying to secure   Bitcoin mining hardware, probably sooner rather than later. Right?  

[01:00:27] Unknown:

You wanna go down that that path? Talk about, like, Bitcoin mining and and ASICs and and all that? I mean, what are the supply chains looking like for that?  

[01:00:40] Unknown:

I mean, I can't really speak to it. I don't know if anyone up here can really speak to it. I can't speak to to mining  

[01:00:47] Unknown:

ASICs,   like, specifically,   but,   they are bottom of the line for fabs that I can tell you.   Like, the the ASEC market, it's still, like, very tiny, and and it's not priority for fabs.   So,   you know, either price goes up,   and and they can overpay the fabs. But but then again, right, like,   you know,   carmakers are buying   tens of millions of chips,   right, from from,   a a fab. So   it's gonna be very hard, at least for the next few years, maybe maybe in a couple say say Bitcoin   crosses   250,   500,000,   it's it changes the dynamic. Right? Because now Bitcoiners get priority on the stuff that they need because it pays so much. When I when I think about ASICs, my monkey brain basically  

[01:01:42] Unknown:

thinks of it as probably the only thing that's more scarce than Bitcoin right now.  

[01:01:48] Unknown:

They're surprisingly   they're very simple chips. Like,   we're still like, the ASICs today are still, like, very   non advanced things.  

[01:02:00] Unknown:

Right. But that's not my point. My point is just in terms of acquiring them.   I think it only gets more difficult from here at least in the next year or 2 years,   so, like, the more short term.   I think if you I mean, I'm just gonna pat myself on the back a little bit. If you look at the home mining serial dispatch episode we did,   I think it was serial dispatch 32. If you haven't listened to it yet, you should.   I'm pretty sure that was, like, right at the bottom, and I think that could be, like, a 2 year bottom, 3 year bottom in terms of   oh, no. It wasn't 32. Maybe it was   31.  

Yeah. 31. CD 31.   And I think it only goes up from here. So if you still want to hold mine,   which I think everyone should at least get their hands dirty and try it, if not with just a a cheap s nine,   to get started,   You're gonna wanna do that sooner rather than later. I think if you hold off,   you're just gonna probably regret holding off.  

[01:03:03] Unknown:

You know,   there is a ton   of used   mining hardware on Alibaba right now.   So, like, I can't remember which generation,   but it's like I remember looking at it a month ago   and with stuff that was still useful.   So, if you want a hobby mind, there there is stuff out there for, like, $1500   a a rig.  

[01:03:27] Unknown:

The problem is, like, when you're getting used, you know, you have to be very careful. There's,   there's there's definitely   a lot of scams out there. There's definitely a lot of people that'll send you bad hardware,   and,   I I think it's it's easier to work with at least people that are have relatively good reputation in the space. I know Mind Farm by has very good reputation. He's on Twitter. If you DM him, he's very helpful.   In that dispatch CD 31, we talked about other avenues that you can do. I think Kaboom Racks was one,   that Ronan Miner recommended.  

But, yeah, if you're interested in Home Mining, go check that out that episode. We have we have the legend himself, Greg Zaj,   on the speaker stage. He hasn't said anything.   How are you doing, Greg? You you have a specific topic you wanna discuss while you're up here?  

[01:04:21] Unknown:

No. I'm, I'm up here purely by accident. I joined and hit okay and brought me in as a speaker request. So feel free to hit me down. I got you. Fuck you, Greg. I invited  

[01:04:34] Unknown:

I invited the whole meme team up, but the only one who came up was yellow and then you.   So   Yep.  

[01:04:42] Unknown:

Thank you for pressing the okay button. I I'm worried about, supply chain shit coming up.   I I wish you guys would talk a little bit more about what, what shortages you see coming up on the home front.  

[01:05:00] Unknown:

Unlikely to be toilet paper.  

[01:05:03] Unknown:

I'd be fascinated, Greg, if you have any thoughts on the, you know, the upcoming legislation, anonymity enhancements,   the broker definition, anything on that too, if you care to talk about it.  

[01:05:15] Unknown:

The really, the only thing I wanna talk about in regards to that stuff is why you think I have any kind of professional opinion.  

[01:05:25] Unknown:

I hear you.  

[01:05:27] Unknown:

We have, Mike Hobart up in stage. How's it going, Mike?  

[01:05:33] Unknown:

Good. I'm actually kinda in the same boat, as as Greg Zodge. I was, I was enjoying the the macro discussion, and I was wondering how,   if you guys have, like, kinda thought out. I I personally ever since, like, all this kind of,   manufacturing   supply shortage we started back in January, I've been thinking that,   the shipping costs and commodity prices going up is gonna likely result in some serious squeezes for employers and insurance providers,   maybe starting this fall or winter. And I'm wondering if you guys have   considered,   what that's gonna do, the macro outlook affecting employment rates and the housing market and rents and everything that we're kinda seeing start to bubble back up into   the focus.  

Danielle d Martino,   Danielle d Martino Booth, actually, has been kind of championing this the last couple of months.  

[01:06:25] Unknown:

Do you know these things do compound?   Right?   I mean, just as a point of reference,   I can't talk about who because of the contract is is in their NDA, but   I have an old client,   that that does,   like,   how can I put this?   Anyways, they have a lot of servers for a certain service.   Right?   This   is a fairly like it's a reasonably sized company.   And one of their suppliers   that is a competitor to Google on a very specific type of service,   a mapping type service.   They just sent an email today saying,   so we're gonna probably increase our our our, prices by 15 to 25%   starting next year.  

Oh, shit. So so, like,   and this is, like, major corporation   with, like, reasonably   large   corporation.   Right?   Like,   if these guys,   affect a whole industry   related to map things   or location things.   I can't even begin   to just to comprehend, like,   the the other stuff. Right? I mean, I know that chips, the manufacturers are all raising their prices 5 to 10% across the board.   Right? So when you compound these things, I mean, it gets pretty crazy.  

[01:07:54] Unknown:

Right? Yeah. I mean, it is 15% MBK. I mean, that's the real inflation rate. If the fed was honest, it'd be 15%. Yeah. Exactly. I'm with you there.   Yeah. When you see these prices, like, that's just the actual like, if they're just they're keeping the cost the same by raising it by 15%. But but here's the thing though, Aaron. Like, these  

[01:08:13] Unknown:

companies are large enough that they are on the Fed's tits. So technically, they don't see inflation the way we see inflation. Right? Because they have access to nearly free credit.   So they could absorb   so so there's there's 2 ways you can look at this. Right? They they can either absorb,   the stuff because they have access to free capital or near free capital,   or we have a serious problem here, which is even with nearly free capital, you still cannot hold your prices.  

[01:08:44] Unknown:

Yeah. But, I mean, the the problem is that the discount the discounting curve is is flattening because there you can't go lower. I mean, Amazon sold $4,000,000,000   at 25 basis points. Like, there's there's nothing lower than 25 basis points for a for a debt note. You know? Like, it doesn't get cheaper. So   yeah. It's nuts. Like, that's  

[01:09:03] Unknown:

yeah. It's Absolutely nuts.  

[01:09:05] Unknown:

And then also in in this whole mix is, I think, energy. You know? This whole ESG   bonanza   with, like, we can't, you know, invest, we can't do drilling, no new wells, you know, stop any sort of offshore exploration,   no new pipeline.   US. Yeah. So now the cost of energy, of course, is going up, and I there's no investment in bringing new supply online. We're having to solve these discussions with OPEC.   So I don't see any reason for energy prices to go down. In fact, I'd see every all the signs pointing to higher energy prices over the next couple years because no one wants to go to nuclear facility. No one wants to do anything. No new drilling. Blah blah blah. So now you have as a minor also to consider just your raw energy cost. So I'd say I don't see any reason for those to go down.  

[01:09:49] Unknown:

I mean, why would you do anything in the US if it's absolute bullshit to do it and you make less profit?  

[01:09:58] Unknown:

Yeah. Yeah. So, so I I had to I had to drop out. I apologize.   Spaces is still trying to figure out their connection issues.   So I, like,   literally, I don't understand how any that that's it. Thank you.   I I don't understand how any like, you could put all these pieces together like you guys have,   even while I lagged out, and then, like, how does it not squeeze employers to where,   employment and housing becomes a massive issue in in America? And then, obviously, these issues bleed out into  

[01:10:30] Unknown:

So I think you hit you hit something nice there that I I figured it was worth sort of talking about.   So,   one way shareholders are gonna find their continue,   expected returns,   right, is by not going back to an office. Right. So businesses have found   an ungodly amount of cash that was being wasted in putting people that don't produce anything in an office   doing   anything. Right? So,   I mean, aside from essentially But every day, they're also taking the cost of lower productivity. I mean, let's be honest. Like, people No. No. For sure for sure they are, but but the ratio   the ratio is key. Right?  

So   if they are not innovating, right, so if they're not creating new products or anything, they're just pressing the print button on existing stuff.   Right? They they can find that same productivity in regards to to cost   sorry, in regards to profit ratios. Right? So they're they're able to still make great profit,   with the old stuff and just maintaining support for the old stuff. What we might stop seeing is new stuff.  

[01:11:38] Unknown:

Yeah. Exactly. There's gonna be 0 r and d, 0 creativity because everyone just wants to work 20 hours and collect 40 hour paychecks.   So there's no innovation. There's no, like, new things being created. But the existing business lines are just, like, you know, they're   squeezing out. Yeah. They're squeezing out as much profit as possible because now they don't have to pay for   facilities, security,   washing the windows, coffee, outings,  

[01:12:01] Unknown:

drinks, like, all that's to 0. But no. But there's opportunity too. Right?   I I think   we're gonna see,   a lot more clever businesses operations where they are able to innovate and and create things   with people being more remote,   And and we're gonna see automation. Like, this is essentially just   just just like hyperaccelerating   automation of positions that shouldn't exist anymore to begin with.   Right? Yep. Especially warehousing and shit like that. I mean, this should all should be a conveyor belt. Right? There is no reason for a human to be involved in this shit anymore.   It's kinda like IKEA. Right? Like,   almost everything IKEA makes sense. It's our robot, that makes it   and ships it.  



[01:12:47] Unknown:

It's kinda like, it's kinda like  

[01:12:58] Unknown:

I cannot hear him.  

[01:13:01] Unknown:

Okay. Yeah. I'm sorry. I'll drop it out. It's kinda like a Bitcoin in the financial system, like automating all that shit.  

[01:13:08] Unknown:

But Yeah. I mean I You could say that about Defy. Right? In a way, Defy just transferred to gambling   from people sitting in a desk on Wall Street to people now just fully gambling on on some stupid JavaScript script on Ethereum, right? I mean, it just moved on to to the next thing that involves even less people.  

[01:13:31] Unknown:

So   I think this conversation's been pretty constructive so far.   Maybe we should move on.   We have Jeff Ross up here on the speaker stage. Jeff, you have anything to add? How's it going over there?  

[01:13:45] Unknown:

Yeah. Hey, man. Thanks for having me up. Dylan popped pulled me up right before he left, but, I guess that my 2¢ would be on what we've been talking about is everything we're all describing with these supply chain issues   and our lackluster economy and lack of innovation, this is this is the beginning,   pains of stagflation.   And I think that this decade is gonna be basically an entire decade of stagflation. Now what that means is the economy just doesn't grow. It's got it's just way overindebted   and stuck in supply chain issues, but inflation will remain high   and or, it will it will accelerate kinda throughout this decade. And so that's pretty ugly. The last time we had something like this was back in the seventies.  

And, you know, most of us are too young to remember that, but that was a pretty ugly decade and a pretty volatile, tumultuous decade as well. So I see kind of the same thing happening this time around as well.   If we didn't have Bitcoin, I would be really stressed out about it. But, because of Bitcoin, that's kind of our escape valve.   Companies are gonna have a rough decade. Bonds are gonna have a rough decade. Hard assets should do well from an investment standpoint.  

[01:14:50] Unknown:

That'd be my 2¢ to what we've been talking about. What do you expect what do you expect to happen,   like, publicly traded companies, like equities, stocks?  

[01:15:00] Unknown:

I I think they're gonna have a really bad decade. So there there's, you know, they're kind of volatile right now. The Fed is still trying to, squeeze another drop or 2 out of them,   of artificial gains, basically, but valuations are so, so obnoxiously  

[01:15:14] Unknown:

overstretched right now. But what else do you buy? What else do you buy? So I I disagree with Jeff.   Yeah. What else do you buy, Jeff?  

[01:15:23] Unknown:

So like I said earlier, so you buy Bitcoin, you buy hard assets. Of course. But yeah. So hard assets We're we're we're selling Bitcoin.   K. Right. Can I finish? So so Bitcoin, hard assets, commodities should do very well. Gold actually may hang in there a little bit.   Stocks in general are not gonna do well. Bonds in general will not do well.   Just basically proinflationary   type investments   should do well over the decade.  

[01:15:51] Unknown:

So but you you could say that there'll be aside from Bitcoin,   there'll be very few things to buy.   And,   a lot of these companies are gonna be able to milk,   they're gonna queue r and d, right, to save. They're gonna kill real expensive real estate because now they have an excuse to to lay everybody off saying, you know, we can go back to an office because of COVID.   And those are essentially the 2 biggest costs,   that are not immediate,   return. Right?   And and and then they're gonna just milk the current production lines, the current product lines for for the next decade,   which may make them actually fairly profitable,   but but not really contribute anything to the future. I mean, if they last after that, that's a different problem.  

But at least in the immediate future, I think they'll actually become even more profitable.  

[01:16:43] Unknown:

Exactly. So some companies that are able to do that, they will milk it out as you're saying, but but it's at the expense of future progress. And so this is gonna be kind of an ugly decade where things get kind of increasingly dilapidated,   where, it just kinda blows to be, you know, in the country because innovation will be lacking except in certain specific areas.   So it's just gonna be a tough time, and and this is what happens in these huge transitions period. I think what we're doing is transitioning from, the analog age to the digital age and from, you know, human workers to, automation,   and that's ugly. In the in the future, we'll look back and be like, oh, yeah. This is when we transition kinda like how we transition from the horse and carriage to the automobile.  

But, it it it it's not without its ugliness, and it's gonna be frustrating for a lot of people. And it's gonna be hard for most investors, especially most, typical, like, older   Vanguard investors who have the 60 40 portfolios of stocks and bonds, they're gonna get absolutely wrecked this decade.  

[01:17:39] Unknown:

So I, I disagree on a few things. I think bonds I agree on the bonds because they are priced to perfection. There's nothing else to do there. So I don't see why they would perform. In terms of stocks, though,   I see no resolve regarding monopoly   antitrust.   So the bigger just keep getting bigger and gobbling up more, which was gonna help the index.   2 is, the Fed is thinking about thinking about thinking about tapering, but it it's not gonna happen, and it's not gonna happen to any extent.   That's gonna be significant, which means the cost of capital is gonna remain at the floor, which means companies that are especially large and have access to 25 basis point credit will continue to max that out and buy back their own shares and consolidate and merge to drive their stock price higher.   I see economies of scale and the Internet.  

You know, there's nothing stopping that. So, you know, all these huge tech giants will just continue to gain. Bitcoin, obviously, I think is positioned the best here because people are gonna realize the effects   are you know, we have the bill is gonna come due ultimately for what we're doing.   I think also the pensions have essentially a Fed put at their, you know, as a tailwind. They they cannot   go below they they've been forced into equities. They have to make 7%.   It's it's the old people and the veterans and the teachers and the firefighters who would need to build out. So the Fed is gonna make sure that the stock portfolio of all these pension funds as well. So they'll continue to offer credit and various other incentive programs like this crazy infrastructure bill that's mostly just going to slash funds and various other programs and initiatives. The treasury has over a $1,000,000,000,000 in its TGA right now to allocate.   The Fed is gonna continue to buy real estate, mortgage backed securities.  

So I just think I every for me, it even though even at these prices, which is insane that we are at a 25   p on the S and P that it can continue to go higher, but it's just what else is there to buy? I mean, aside from Bitcoin, like, what else is there to buy? So I totally agree with everything you just said, Aaron, but the one caveat that I think is the huge caveat is  

[01:19:42] Unknown:

you will see significant nominal gains in your stocks and in real estate and in things like that, but real returns are gonna be close to 0. And that's because the, because of what you're saying. So the Fed is gonna print so much money this decade   that the the, underlying so the denominator, the US dollar is gonna be depreciating at least as fast as the gains that we see even in the big tech companies, I think. So I think I think nominal gains will be positive. Real returns are gonna be flat to negative over the coming decade. But, Jeff, I I don't I don't think it matters, right, for for all these these funds because  

[01:20:18] Unknown:

what matters to them is to to show a number. Right? So if you're saying your pension fund is indexed, right,   as long as that number   still looks better than the official numbers,   right, you you're still sort of you you survive another day. Right? Right. So that's the main problem. Right. I mean, in reality, they're all fucked.  

[01:20:40] Unknown:

Yeah. Exactly. In reality so so this is the wealth effect. People think they're rich because they see these big gains in their 4 0 one k's and their IRAs, but their purchasing power is eroding faster than the gains that they're seeing. And they don't understand that. Nobody   understands economics.  

[01:20:55] Unknown:

And pensions are even in a worse place because most of them who have,   like, government stated mandates   that they have to hold, say, 30% of the fund in bonds. Right? It it's not even optional   for for dispension funds on the stuff that they can invest in. So Yep.   And they have a lot of smart people in them. So these guys see the writing on the wall. They they most of them just have their hides their their hands completely tight.  

[01:21:23] Unknown:

So here's the kicker then. What's the actual hurdle rate, what's it gonna be going forward?   And are is stocks and bonds and even 30 3%.   Just gonna be a proxy continue to be a proxy for for inflation at a nominal rate. And so, yeah, if it is 33%,   what is the only asset that can actually get over that hurdle rate?  

[01:21:45] Unknown:

That and then well, that and, like,  

[01:21:48] Unknown:

when when do people real even even more so. Right? Because we're talking about the death of the dollar here, the never ending printing. Like, when is it when the masses truly understand and see,   hey. Shoot.   I can't keep up with any of my traditional stuff, and now I need Bitcoin. When does when does that point when it was over that point and see the just hordes   hordes coming in. The real sad squeeze. Right?  

[01:22:14] Unknown:

Yeah. I mean, there there is no way out. We we've reached the point of no return   pretty much 20 years ago. Right?   So so now really is you know, they're they're just gonna manage this, and and they could manage this. So if we don't have some black swan that completely obliterates   some major,   western government,   mainly the US, these guys can keep on going with this stuff for another 20, 50 years.   It it's not impossible.  

[01:22:43] Unknown:

It really isn't. I think a lot of people also if you're in the United States, you're thinking, well, obviously,   the US dollar is trash. But if you're in other countries, it's much more acute and it's easy to see. Like, you can literally opt out and you see your you know, the value appreciate, like, 30% in the year, 50% in the year, whatever.   Or even, you know, trip, triple digits. But when you're in United States, you see the same effect. But because we're so large, you can't comprehend the amount of inflows that will come first   from all of these other countries with other fiats that are far, far inferior.  

They're come to the dollar and then go ahead. Yeah.  

[01:23:20] Unknown:

All all other countries, including the euro,   is mostly to the dollar. Dollarized.   Everybody's dollarized.   There is a fallacy that people so so US is the last to fall. Yes. Some people don't understand. Yeah. Timing.   It it it really is. Like, I mean, like, everybody goes down first. So   how that plays out,   it's beyond me. I mean, because, like, what? Are you gonna just, like, recapture America or something? Like, how do you handle the fact that you are essentially   the the first to fall? Right? That that's true especially for Europe.  

[01:24:00] Unknown:

Yeah. It's so large. I mean, over 70% of global trade denominated in dollars. It's extraordinarily   large. So it's not like there's some sort of imminent collapse.   It's just gonna be a cascade,   and the 1st dominoes to fall are the smallest countries.   So we've already seen this, you know, like, with opting out in Turkey, opting   out in very small countries, and then it goes on. But the timeline is much longer than I think a lot of people understand.  

[01:24:25] Unknown:

So if that's the case though, right, and   everything is traded at such a high percentage in dollars on the maybe not on the front, but on the back end,   is it does it make it easier   for the Fed and the US to just rug the, right, the current dollar system   and sub it for the CBDC version they've been talking about? Like, do you guys see that as a media possibility?  

[01:24:50] Unknown:

They can just keep on going as is. This is great for them. Right? They keep on getting real active.   Nobody is in civil war.   And   as we say in Canada, Bob is your uncle. Just continue going as you are. You're surviving it. They they they literally got over 2,008   without a scuff,   politically speaking.  

[01:25:11] Unknown:

The Fed dollars only as a response. It's not like they care about it.   We already have the dominant position. Like, we don't need more than 70% or 80% or whatever share of global trade that we have. It's fine. And we'd actually rather to devalue our currency, and it's very difficult to do that. Like, the more devaluation, the better.   But the response is just that, okay. Well, China's doing it and the Euro is doing it, so we have to do it, obviously. We'll do it after them and crush them.   But we just have to be prepared for that. So let's get our, you know, the prep work done so that we're ready to go once that launches. So people realize, as always, that they can't compete with the US dollar. If they try to, we will smash them. That's pretty much the the role of the fed dollar. It's not actually gonna do anything.   It's just gonna be a response to the international community trying to,   supplant even a little bit of our denomination   and just saying, no. You actually can't because we can do it better.  



[01:26:03] Unknown:

Okay. So then maybe not in terms   so maybe not in terms of, like, the monetary policy as much as, like well,   I I firmly believe that there's there's a there's a plan to,   you know, put some type of control grid in place when it comes to buying and selling and and how we can do such things. And I know that Bitcoin will allow us to circumvent that a lot, but I I don't think   that that's too far,   you know, too far fetched to say, hey. Maybe they   will move forward on this just for the sake of trying to control those who are, you know, unvaccinated  

[01:26:35] Unknown:

or don't comply or this, that, or the other thing. But but they don't need they don't need c v c CBDC to do that. They're already doing that with the existing   industry. They put out the buyer post saying, hey. Any anonymity enhanced, currency no matter what it is, no matter what name it is. If you're a financial institution, you're not allowed to recommend it. You're not allowed to talk about it. You're not allowed to allow any of your clients to use it. This is already proposed. It's in draft language going to the floor of our congress to debate these, you know, pro total prohibitions regarding anonymity,   no mixers, no coin joints, blah blah blah. I mean, it's crazy. So they don't even need the CBDC to introduce these controls.  



[01:27:10] Unknown:

Got it. Okay. Stuff is is even that stuff is even less useful   than, say, the big sequencing act. Right? Because,   see, when you have legislation like that that is, that is very specific and is very, clear. Right?   You you give people way around it because we'll come out come out with ways around that.   The issue really is stuff like the Bank Secrecy Act because it's selective enforcement.   Right? So you don't know.   And it's written there. They're not even allowed to tell you   why they're doing what they're doing. And that's why they've been so successful at present as as preventing, like, porn people, the pot people,   or whatever undesirable,   industry from banking. Right? So I'm actually   less concerned   about   the the the this new bill or however they wanna do it as long as they they make it so it's clear,   than I am about the other stuff. They're gonna keep on adding, and nobody's gonna fight because he can't even fight.  



[01:28:11] Unknown:

Yeah. This is private rule making. Literally, in the bill, it says the secretary of treasury has the authority to define the terms of the rulemaking.   So it would just continue to come. It's an onslaught.   It would just be   Bitcoin versus   the BSA pretty much or Bitcoin versus treasury if you wanna frame it in a in a US centric way. It's gonna be we don't want the treasury doesn't want anyone to do anything privately as long as you tell us absolutely all of your transactions. It's totally fine. Just just give us a report.   Whenever you do something, if you're a financial institution in any way, just tell us exactly what your customers are doing. No problem. And then it's gonna be that versus what actually Bitcoin was intended to do, which which is to allow people to conduct their own affairs and do their own business in private, which is a right.  



[01:28:57] Unknown:

Yeah.   I I don't think they care about rights.  

[01:29:01] Unknown:

I think Aaron pretty much nailed it. Yeah. Thankfully, it's in our bill of rights. But we will it's gonna be a huge fight because they don't like it. Yeah. They're fighting that down. The real fight has not come yet. Aaron has Aaron completely nailed it. A 100% cosigned what he said.   The the Bayer bill is intentionally vague, and I I did I did notice exactly what Aaron said. The it even says in the bill that just like the treasury department gets to say what the definitions of the bill mean.   We have,   we have Evan Kaludis up on stage. He hasn't spoke.  

Evan, you have anything to add here? You have any topics you want us to discuss?  

[01:29:46] Unknown:

Nope.  

[01:29:50] Unknown:

I got a topic from the audience that I thought was kinda interesting.   Talking about narratives and memes,   one thing that Bitcoin Twitter loves saying is Bitcoin fixes this.   In terms of the whole situation in Afghanistan right now,   how does Bitcoin fix that? Does Bitcoin fix that? Oh.  

[01:30:13] Unknown:

Yes. It prevents us from definitely repeating it.  

[01:30:18] Unknown:

It prevents,   it also prevents, like, going a little bit farther than than that. It it prevents well, we we saw some of the issues,   that fiat money allows within the infrastructure bill that Matt just brought up.   These politicians are getting paid, and they're getting paid to   essentially   reorganize   tax dollars to go to wherever their buddies are paying them to also get paid. So, like,   yeah. Like, you wanna talk about politicians or corporate lobbying for,   military spending.   It basically Bitcoin removes the capability of America to wage war to maintain,   her economic   I don't even wanna say dominance. Like, America's economy is strictly reliant on the,   a perpetual war, essentially.  

So,   yeah, Bitcoin   Bitcoin doesn't necessarily remove war,   as I or remove the capability of funding a war, but it removes the capability of   falsely funding a war.   You would you would need a vast majority of your citizenry to be willing to   essentially purchase war bonds, like, in World War 2  

[01:31:32] Unknown:

to be able to fund anything on on on an, on a Bitcoin economy. So, like, that's that's really the the kind of the positive thing that we're all hoping for that Bitcoin can do. You know, Mike, the the the way that they funded that,   actually, that's the way that income source deduction started about. It was a one time war measure   where they couldn't print the money yet, So they were just, okay. You know, we're gonna take capture some of the the salary, right,   at the source because   if people have to pay their taxes after the fact, they would rebel.   So,   they started source deduction like that, and source deduction is was the cleverest way of taking people's money without people sort of really noticing because it's not out of their bank account.  



[01:32:19] Unknown:

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And then, like, it gets even more like, the the scenario are kind of detailed. It sounds still pretty bleak, but it gets much, much better, as you kind   of work down the game theory as far as you're not gonna the likelihood is you're not gonna get them vast majority of a population,   large enough, like,   I I you can use America, like, 350,000,000   people or whatever. You're not gonna get the vast majority to agree to a war unless something significant like Pearl Harbor,   happens.   Even then, I I think the likelihood is very,   poor. But then, like, when you kinda game it out as far as using war as a   political or economic tactic,   With Bitcoin, it becomes much more economic and much more realistic and much more agreeable   to come to mutual agreement or terms via trade.  

Then then there's no loss of life. There's no,   there's no violence   and there's essentially,   well, peace. I I would hope.  

[01:33:25] Unknown:

Anybody wants to disagree or not, there's crickets. So I don't know if you guys are agreeing or not. We have LogScale in here who hasn't spoken. He's up on the speaker stage. How's it going LogScale? Do you have anything to add here?  

[01:33:39] Unknown:

Well, when you guys were talking about monetary debasement a little while ago,   I kinda had a just interesting thought experiment.   Curious to see what people,   reaction to.   Let's assume, like, in the next 5 years, we have   hyperbitcoinization.   And just take that as a given for the moment. Is it more likely to happen,   on the tail end of   fiat currency failing and people being forced into Bitcoin? Or is it more likely to happen because smart people start front running it very soon and it leads to a cascading effect?  

[01:34:16] Unknown:

Both, in my opinion.   Reality is usually somewhere in between the extremes, and I think what you just labeled were extremes.   Unfortunately,   I feel like this and this is where I think a lot of people are gonna disagree with me.   Unfortunately, I think that the average   citizen,   who doesn't really wanna put forth the efforts to do their own research is going to   really drag their feet on doing what is,   best. We don't really,   we don't really need to look very far,   much farther than the   there was a study that went out that they were,   I believe it was the National Institute of Health said that by 2030, they're estimating that 78% of Americans are gonna be at at the very least overweight, if not obese.  

That should tell you right there that most people are gonna put in the the,   most minimum amount of effort to do what is necessary or do what they should for their own health, whether it's financial or physical.   So I unfortunately, I think that the majority of the the populace is gonna wait till the very last minute. They're the ones that are gonna get hurt the most.  

[01:35:21] Unknown:

Okay. Let me let me clarify.   So, and and not by the way, your answer, that's usually how I answer things. The truth is somewhere in the middle.   But the the the, the front running   idea I had is that it created such a cascading   effect that it forced people into it just because of how fast it was going up, even though, like,   the dollar wasn't really even failing yet.  

[01:35:45] Unknown:

So long ago, unfortunately   I mean, I wish this wasn't the case, but I I think it is, unfortunately,   that the government just won't allow hyperbolicolonization.   Or they will do everything and they will pull up all their entire toolkit and use every single one to stop it. So I think it's very difficult within a 5 year time frame to have that type of outlook. It's just   difficult for me to see how given how powerful the incumbents are that they could allow such a thing to happen.   But I think if it were to happen, it would be probably people   learning about,   the value of Bitcoin. I think it's incredible to see how quickly   awareness of the most basic properties of Bitcoin has spread around the world. People understand, like, it's a thing and it holds its own value that's independent of everything else. Even just that basic concept,   there's now probably,   I don't know, about a 1000000000 people   or more who understand that the most basic concept, and it's it's something that you can buy that you can hold that holds its value digitally. And then as people learn more about it, like,   it's a way you can send payments to anyone without any financial intermediary.  

You know, you can do it to you can hold your own, you know, Bitcoin without anyone having to custody it for you. These more advanced topics, people will learn,   and we've seen already the price run up just from this most basic explanation of features of Bitcoin worldwide.  

[01:37:08] Unknown:

The, the one thing the one thing that's also kind of like a, a possible possibility for optimism is,   the the states and the the pension programs and the the fixed income,   managers that do put that are the first movers to put Bitcoin on their balance sheet will be the ones to really protect their citizens most.   If in my opinion, if the United States really wanted to position themselves well, it would be the individual states,   doing this, taking these measures, and doing it now. But,   but, yeah, again, like, I agree with Aaron. I don't I don't think that'll happen. I think the federal government will try to I'm  

[01:37:45] Unknown:

It seems that, like, every attempt   at, like, federalization   really has the wrong incentives and ends up failing. Right? Like, Canada is also federation, and it's like,   you know, they just keep on consolidating power to the top because that's where the incentives are. Right? That's where the money printer is. Yeah. That's where the responsibility is because they don't wanna they don't wanna take individual responsibility of taking risk. That's right. I mean, like, they don't it's not even some grand conspiracy. People just don't wanna lose elections. It's that simple.  

[01:38:15] Unknown:

Well, if I can, yeah, take off on that and and answer Aaron. The reason I'm more optimistic,   apart from, you know, my viral tweet thread that you probably all seen,   is,   that, you know, the people who pull the levers of power,   they also they understand the problem   as well as we do, I think.   And I think that they're already buying Bitcoin for themselves or their families or their kids or their grandkids are. And so I I think the the game theory applies to the decision makers too and the people who wanna get reelected too. And I think they're realizing that the voting block is too big to risk coming out against Bitcoin. And I thought it was fascinating that in the senate, we had 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans   trying to figure out and get it right. And now in the house, 2 Democrats, 1 Republican   have, you know, started a memo to try to get it right.  

It's like you're you're you're seeing cooperation across the board.  

[01:39:11] Unknown:

I figured these conversations that the the people, right, in between quotes, it, like, gets absolved too easy. Right? Like, I mean, the majority of the population wants free shit.   Right? They they want this. They want the services. They want none of the responsibility.   Right? This is, like,   over a 100 years of of a culture of this. So   you can't   it's not like the politicians are not some reflection of of the people. Right?   And and, you know, if the population wants this and they're doing this to get reelected,   you know, it's no wonder than the poor and the middle class are the ones who pay for this   because the people who have more money,   left or right,   both of them have enough means   to at least carve out the loopholes that are needed for them   to not go through this capture of income.  



[01:40:09] Unknown:

I think, generally speaking, US politicians are they're certainly becoming more aware. Some of them have very large Bitcoin   holdings, and they also are not stupid. They understand how much Bitcoin is owned by US residents.   Coinbase   owns   very large or, I mean,   I would say maybe what what is it? Like, 9 9% of all cryptocurrencies.   The Grace of Bitcoin Trust has 3, 4% of Bitcoin.   Altogether,   US Bitcoin ownership is probably somewhere around 20, 25   percent of the circulating supply,   which is very in line with our GDP,   dominance in the world. So we have about 20% of whatever.  

China is next in line regarding Bitcoin ownership. You know, their GDP is half of ours, and they have   roughly,   you know,   maybe a third of our Bitcoin ownership. So it's not going to change the status quo. I think they're pretty aware that, you know, if Bitcoin goes up in price, the, you know, US residents will benefit. So it's not a major threat. So as long as the treasury gets all the visibility and the privacy,   you know, killing things that they want, then it's gonna be fine because the US will be wealthy just as as long as much as anyone else if the price goes up. I think if the ownership were were,   lopsided the other way, if we didn't have very much Bitcoin and it wasn't a legitimate threat, like, if it was, you know, like, MBK was talking about gold ownership and how Russia was able to to dollarize or if China had actually succeeded in acquiring amount of gold that would allow it to get off the dollar standard, that would have been a threat, but it's not the threat at all. I think it's just kind of keeping   things pretty much as they are. But it's providing individuals the opportunity. It's not a national,   security threat, but it's providing individuals the opportunity to learn about what's happening on this geopolitical thing. You know, there's this new asset class called Bitcoin,   and it's not it's very much, you know, being managed by the powers that be, but still can operate in this way that allows you   your own self  

[01:42:07] Unknown:

sovereignty. But, Aaron   one second, MBK. Let me just jump in. Aaron, I mean,   does   does, like, that institutional adoption of Bitcoin or that, like, known   like, you mentioned Grayscale. Grayscale actually holds their Bitcoin with Coinbase.   So, I mean, if you include Coinbase custody, which most of these trackers don't, like Glassnode or whatnot,   it's probably closer to around 2,000,000 Bitcoin that they hold.   And, like, you know, Michael Sailor and and MicroStrategy,   like, they're holding their   100,000 Bitcoin,   with a regulated custodian,   not Coinbase Custody, but another one of the big players. There's, like, 3 big regulated custodians.  

Is like, that's not really   that   that known Bitcoin that is disclosed and held in regulated custodians and is easily   taxed in any kind of situation and is completely controlled in terms of how it's spent.   I I feel like we have to be careful about   combining that with Bitcoin held by actual sovereign Bitcoiners that use their own node and hold their own keys. Would you agree? No. I totally agree with that. I'm just going on a few snapshots.  

[01:43:25] Unknown:

So Chanalysis   actually just recently, they published their newest snapshot, and they so like you're saying, it's impossible to know who the people individually are, but they can measure   there were 2 things last summer.   They measured how much would they estimate was held by service hosted wallets, which is custodians.   And at that time, summer of last year, it was 25% in the United States. 25 of the Bitcoin was held by custodians within the United States. Now, of course, those custodians could have international customers, but that was where Chainalysis estimated that the Bitcoin was held at that time. And then, last month, they released a report saying that,   of the payments that are sent on chain, which country,   could we estimate that those payments are being sent to? So this called addresses estimated to be controlled by users.  

And as of the first half of the year, the United States   addresses associated with the United States received $450,000,000,000   in the first half of the year. Next in line was China at a $150,000,000,000.   After that was the UK of a $130,000,000,000.   So United States' dominance, if this is a good measure of that, value received by addresses that are known to be associated with the country,   is over 3 times that of China.  

[01:44:42] Unknown:

So but but there is another aspect to this. Right?   You get economic protection   because   US doesn't wanna fuck with something that ruins their stock market. Because you're in the stock market, nobody gets reelected.   Right? So when you do have a lot of larger entities   starting to hold, and they don't care about privacy whatsoever. Right? So   you are creating moat   between you and the state because,   you know, they will   be a lot more cautious on the actions that they have against your asset   if this asset is being held by entities   that could cause them problems.  



[01:45:23] Unknown:

Yeah. And also, Matt, I I cite them not because I necessarily believe them, and obviously, there's a lot of   room for their reporting to be to have holes in it, but they are state sponsored. They're funded by the Department of Homeland Security.   And it is the first graph on their report, and they only do, like, 2 reports a year. So it's, like, right up the top, number one graphic, and big green,   colors is United States   has,   3 times the amount of Bitcoin as China, pretty much. I mean, in in as much words. So that's just   going to people in the United States government, supported by Department of Homeland Security, saying, hey, this isn't a big issue. That's that's the message of the report that I see.  

Which whether or not it's true is important to know when you're when you're thinking about their motivations. They're not thinking about it as a national security risk.   They're thinking about it. Okay. This is something that is in line with what the how the world operates. So now we just need to make sure that we, you know, cover the details. You know, taxes, reporting, blah blah blah. We're not looking to shut it down.  

[01:46:31] Unknown:

They they'll be making their decisions   on whatever that data is. Right? They don't it's like it's not that they don't care that the data's in inaccurate.   That's the data that they have. That's the data that they sponsor. So they they will make all their policies based on that.  

[01:46:59] Unknown:

So   with all that said,   I I I think I pretty much   agree with Aaron.   I don't know where we wanna take this conversation next. I mean, we've we've gone for an hour and 45 minutes.   I don't really have many topics   listed here.   Does anyone here have something they wanna discuss?  

[01:47:28] Unknown:

Ash rate mining.   Blockstream   creating, mobile mining unit containers to deploy with power companies as load balancing mechanisms.  

[01:47:39] Unknown:

I love how Blockstream just I I feel like they don't even know what business they're in. They just they just do everything. Doing everything, man.  

[01:47:47] Unknown:

Yeah. Pretty interesting to see them hop on to the the mobile container,   mining bandwagon, and they're trying to, well, they're saying that it that goes hand in hand with their blockchain satellite service. So there's no one on earth nowhere on earth where they can't put a Bitcoin mine on and have connectivity. Right?  

[01:48:06] Unknown:

Well, they still need they still need to transmit,   the block, so they need to have at least some kind of   cell connection.  

[01:48:15] Unknown:

You you could do it. Send out. You could do it with fancy   satellite uplinks.   There there are some fancy ones out there. I just don't think it'll be economical.  

[01:48:28] Unknown:

Could you elaborate on the load balancing aspect of that? It's like you you're just creating excess and just putting that energy towards mining. Is that what it  

[01:48:38] Unknown:

is? No. So if the Bitcoin miners are the buyer of last resort and even first resort,   the the narrative is that it that it actually incentivizes   renewable resources to be built out at scale   because,   the power grid or the company can can put a whole bunch of,   and let's forget about the fact if we think,   solar and wind is renewable or not. But that that's the narrative is that they can overbuild the renewable to support the grid, and then the Bitcoin miners can can use that energy,   when it's not when it's intermittent and also,   subsidize the the production of that infrastructure.  



[01:49:24] Unknown:

I mean, I think this idea of these mobile mining container units in general is absolutely   revolutionary.   It's great for Bitcoin. I think it's great for the world as well. I mean, I I think,   you know, my co host, Marty Bent,   on Rabbit Hole Recap   is is working with Great American Mining, and they've been   heavily focused in that field. So it's good to see more   companies kind of jump into that fray.   But   it's it's a perfect example of this greater idea that   there is a huge subset of this industry, particularly the, quote, unquote, crypto industry   that thinks that proof of work   is this issue with Bitcoin that needs to be solved   when, in fact,   this distributed proof of work is   really is is the the one of the greatest parts of the innovation. Like, it is absolutely groundbreaking   that you can take energy from anywhere in the world, and with just an Internet connection,   you can convert that into money.  

And I   there's no way   in my mind that that is priced in. Like, even Bitcoiners underestimate that aspect, but especially   the greater crypto community, and then   normies have no fucking idea it's happening.  

[01:50:50] Unknown:

Yeah. There's no there's no such thing as a stranded asset or a stranded energy resource anywhere in the world anymore. And and if you believe Yeah. That's p. Give me one sec here. If you believe that that energy use   goes along with human flourishing and the flourishing of civilization,   then think about both utilizing those stranded assets all over the world,   like we do with with upstream data just on stranded natural gas assets that are otherwise can't get to market even though those wells have already been drilled. It's just sitting there. So like Marty likes to say, we bring we bring the market to the molecule,   and that gets turned into converted into monetary energy   and contributes to human flourishing and civilization.  



[01:51:32] Unknown:

But, see, do you hit the point right there? Right? The ESG crowd,   doesn't believe in human fellowship. Right? Like, they want less people on earth. They want earth to go back to, you know, like, I don't know, some period never existed.   Right?   And this really hits the nail sort of in the head there.   We are at odds with the people who are not for human flourish   because you can't have both.   Right?  

[01:52:03] Unknown:

That's the it's incompatible   with the Fiat system. Right? Like, they they think there's no alternative. They think we have to reduce our energy use because it's incompatible with with the feed inflationary system.   So, hopefully, they see that there is an alternative.  

[01:52:18] Unknown:

So that's the really fun part. I'm glad you brought that up, Sovereign, of the bringing on the,   geographically stressed energy sources. This is the art this is part of the article that I wrote for Bitcoin Magazine.   So we talked about how,   like,   basically,   it's kind of like a 4th turning event that, MBK was discussing where we're kind of shifting over to a focus on automation   and a not maybe not a decrease in jobs, but just a a temporary decrease in availability of employment and a a focus on automation to make things cheaper.   When when you bring on the fact that Bitcoin is bringing all of this   kind of it's not new, but it's newly discovered,   energy sources onto the grid.  

In my mind, it starts to make   manufacturing,   exponentially   even cheaper because we're focusing on on automation, and then we also have almost, like, an excess or a surplus of energy   availability   to to, redirect to production and manufacturing.   And if if this is the case, then the way I see it is that cost of living should,   in air quotes,   get   exponentially cheaper than than what it is right now. Not not necessarily in dollar terms, but in, purchasing power.   I wonder what everybody in the on the panel thinks about the  

[01:53:41] Unknown:

We just had we just had Max join the speaker table.   I met Max through Marty.   Very interesting because Max actually came in from the energy side first  

[01:53:52] Unknown:

and got orange pilled via, basically, this exact conversation we're having. How's going, Max? Yeah, Matt. Thanks for having me up. That's exactly why I raised my hand to come up. It's because you guys are talking about what has   been kind of mind blowing to me,   for the last, call it, year of my life. So I could basically build my whole career around kind of, you know, energy infrastructure,   specifically oil field infrastructure,   and just, like, kind of the intersection between the people that produce energy and then the people that buy and consume energy. And so   have, like, an energy marketing business. We have a infrastructure business where   we build infrastructure. So, like, this whole concept of, like, you know, being able to bring the demand to wherever the energy is at is just like an earth shattering, like, career altering thing that just you know?  

When I first found out about it, it was, like, literally pacing around my house, like, in the middle of the night just, like, thinking of all the implications that how it could change things, and it just   changes everything, really, because   all energy, the entire energy systems that we have built is really all around   transportation. Right? It's like, here's the sources and the places that we need to use energy, whether that's settlements with people, whether that's industrial manufacturing,   you know, whatever it may be, And then you have these different sources that you can generate energy. And so the entire energy logistics game is just, you know, the proximity to market and, like, how you get things to market and then the cost involved   with getting it there. And so this idea that you can take the highest value use case for energy   and move that anywhere in the world where you've got the lowest cost energy,   it just kinda changes everything in a bunch of different ways. And the aspect earlier about using it is like a battery technology. I mean, it makes too much sense. Like, right? Look what's going on with, like, ERCOT and the grid in Texas and, you know, the reality is, like, they just need more base load. Like, you need just more power generation in general, but you're never gonna build it because,   you know, to build a peaking plant or a facility where you've got excess power all the time, that's the real way to ensure these, like, disasters don't happen where the grid you know, where you're having rolling brownouts or you have these heat waves or these, you know, winter storms.  

If you think about what you could do with Bitcoin mining, I mean, you could literally like, if the state were to embrace it like Texas or somebody and say, hey. Look. We're gonna build this, you know, power generation facility that's in excess of what we need. We're gonna store that energy in the form of a monetary value,   with Bitcoin. And then when we need it, we can redirect it to grid. I mean, everybody talking about large scale battery applications. It's like, why would you you know, first of all, large scale batteries are probably not gonna work for a lot of reasons, but Bitcoin mining could act as that, you know, basically a way to store energy   forever. There's no shelf life. You can move it the speed of light,   anywhere in the world, that value   directed at the highest value use case for whatever that may be. Like, if it's the state, they could put it towards their budget.  

Just one interesting thing, but, I mean, I could ramble about it for hours. There's just so many implications of what this does to energy,   and that's just been the part for me that's been just the most exciting thing. And then I've now gone all the way down the the Bitcoin rabbit hole and have learned a bunch about Bitcoin on top of it, but I've come at it from that angle. And, again, it's just like it's the most underrated, in my opinion, and fascinating part of it, but it's probably because I'm biased towards that.  

[01:57:03] Unknown:

Sounds like you're, you're in my camp there. I haven't slept, in the last year and a half thinking about all this stuff down the the mining rabbit hole there, Max. But, yeah, you did a good job of explaining, like, how how Bitcoin has a load balancing mechanism for the grids can really incentivize,   building out that base load that otherwise wouldn't wouldn't be built,   because the miners can pay for that infrastructure. Right? So   and people are sometimes triggered when when we call it a battery. But like you said, it's it's not a battery to store that electricity. It's really a monetary battery that You should use the you the term Bitcoin can subsidize,  

[01:57:39] Unknown:

energy infrastructure.   Like, that that's that's the key. Right. Yeah. Subsidize. Yeah. Yeah. In the sense that why you talk about that, the commies understand. Energy capture.   No. The the commies understand subsidization.   Right? If you're saying that Bitcoin is now subsidizing,   the electrification   of a lot of areas that have issue to begin with. Right? This is a big deal now. Now this is this is a capital investment for the people for the people.  

[01:58:06] Unknown:

It's also a carbon capture. You know, if this energy is gonna be really state anyway,   then we can monetize it and use it to, you know, have some sort of green subsidy or whatever.   And that is also another positive framing.  

[01:58:19] Unknown:

And it also has less of a carbon footprint when it when it gets burned through the mining process.  

[01:58:24] Unknown:

Yeah. That's what I was gonna say is the one thing we focus on is, you know, if you look at, like, efficiency, which everybody wants to talk about, you know, the energy transition and all these things going on, and you hear all these big sweeping changes like the move to renewables or to EV or whatever.   But I think the reality is as we progress, you know, we're gonna gravitate towards efficiency, I hope. You know? I think if the if the federal government gets involved, there'll probably be a lack of efficiency. But if, you know, logic and innovation, you know, prevails, then there'll be a move towards more efficient things. And so, for example, like, in the gas markets is what I focus on a lot and natural gas. And so if you're in the field, you know, to get power on the grid, it's very inefficient. I mean, electricity, like, what I have to say is that it's convenient. It's not efficient.   What I mean by that is it takes, like, 60 to 70% of the energy is just lost converting it from,   you know, that field, that produces gas. You gotta move it on pipelines. You lose, you know, there's methane that gets lost. You have to burn fuel, get it to a power plant, and you gotta get it on the grid. The estimates show, like, 60 to 70%   of that energy is just wasted completely just to get your Tesla plugged in. And then, by the way, the Tesla loses 5% of its charge every day just idling. So it's extremely inefficient to electrify everything. But with Bitcoin, just putting Bitcoin mining in a natural gas field, you're now converting that energy at 90 plus percent,   depending on the pipe, you know, how far from the well it is. If it dried at the wellhead, it could be 99% efficiency. So   even though you're using maybe hydrocarbons to convert it into Bitcoin, which people will say that's dirty, you're actually, you know, pulling electricity at a much higher clip or that power to much higher clip. And then the comment about it being a battery, I mean, look,   it's at the end of the day, like, all energy is is a way to it's a means to an end. Right? It's you're gonna convert it into something that has value, and that value in theory is a higher economic case than it would otherwise be for just keeping the energy in the ground or wherever you're you're getting it from. And so if you can convert it into value that never goes away, that in fact goes up over time and that can be stored indefinitely,   I know we could frame it like a subsidy and that's a maybe a smart way to frame it, but the reality is is that whatever you use the energy for, at the end of the day, you're converting it to value, whether that's electricity, people are buying it at their house, whether that's, you know, whatever it may be, industrial uses, it gets converted to value eventually. And with Bitcoin mining, you can convert it to value right at the source and then harness that value forever and then direct that value to where you wanna direct it. So it's just it's just really powerful.  



[02:00:51] Unknown:

Yeah. So not only is Bitcoin a superior store of value, but it's also superior in transporting the value over space and time,   which is beautiful thing to see.   Exactly.  

[02:01:06] Unknown:

Yeah.   Stoic, do you have any thoughts on how China's or even the individual actors inside of China were able to do this? Do you see that as a,   you know, obviously, they did that for a while. They were able to, at times, get up to 65 or whatever percent of hash rate.   They built a tremendous amount of infrastructure,   a ton of different these of these machines, made a ton of money. But now,   I mean, in my view, it's preparation for the launch of DSAP in the Olympics February, but maybe you have a different view.   Do you see that as, like, a cycle of that a country can go through? They kind of maximize the amount of stranded energy that they or money that they can extract in the form of basically stealing from their own natural resources, or do you see that it can continue?  



[02:01:56] Unknown:

Oh, there's a lot in there, Aaron. I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to get out for China. Like like, obviously, I think we we agree that China crack down on Bitcoin   mining had less to do with energy use and more to do with, like you say, capital controls and and cracking down,   to for the introduction of their digital currency. Right? But do you are you asking, like, do you do you think do we think that they can get that hash rate back? Like, I don't think it's ever coming back in my opinion.  

[02:02:23] Unknown:

Okay. Yeah. That makes sense. No. I just was wondering how that   it's just I think I think I agree with you that it's kind of impossible to know because it's China. They don't say any of the things that are real. They don't report, so there's no filings to check. It would be very interesting, though, to know, and I think you probably would be interested as well,   you know, how much   of,   the energy that was produced at these hydroelectric plants or these various other things that were off peak or, you know, basically carbon capture type of activities that they were able to get Bitcoin out. And to have that as a   report to say, hey. You know, we can capture   I mean, obviously, every miner can act in their own interest and they can make money however they wanna make it. But if they had the data to say, hey. We know from very large scale,   operation of capturing stranded energy that we can monetize based on this x amount of dollars or an investment. We can capture x amount of dollars   as Bitcoin mined the value of it at today's prices,   which would equate to a savings of, you know, why. That would be interesting data, I think, to have.  



[02:03:33] Unknown:

Yeah. For sure, man. All I know is that it's interesting to see the actual I mean, ultimately,   just gonna say it's interesting to see how fast the hash rate's bouncing back now up to 120 now. And and our next difficulty adjustments looking like it's gonna be at least 15% here. So we're it's coming back hard right now, whether that's infrastructure coming online in Texas and Wyoming and North America and all and Alberta up here with us or or what's happening, but it's gonna be crazy this time next year considering how much hash rates getting deployed with all these public company as well. Like, you see guys like Marathon who who are looking to bump up from from 4 x hashes right now that have over 13 x hashes deployed by this time next year.   Difficulty in hash rates gonna be pretty crazy by next year, I think.  



[02:04:18] Unknown:

Yeah. I mean, I would add that I mean, it is   unequivocally bullish that we have this hash returning to the network,   whether that's new hardware or not. Having   floating hash that's unaccounted for is horrible for Bitcoin's security model, so I'm very relieved to see   it enter the network.   I would push back   that to me and maybe this is   a unpopular opinion on Bitcoin Twitter. To me,   seeing companies like Marathon, these large public American companies try and   increase their hash,   it becomes an existential threat to Bitcoin. Like, I'd prefer if we don't see large amounts of hash held by, like, a few publicly traded American companies.  

[02:05:04] Unknown:

So this is the thing, Mehmet.   The problem is, like, you know, if we if we respect the the spirit of Bitcoin, which is Bitcoin is your enemy's money. Right?   It's inevitable   On Jake's side. That large entities will attempt to do those things. So   the question is, how do we handle   it? It's not a question   of, like they they will do it. Right? That is the game theory. The game theory is for these entities to seek,   Bitcoin solutions,   mining, holding, or whatever it is.   So so I like that little MBK. I'll handle what MBK wants to see. Are you wrestling with Bigfoot? Is that what I'm hearing?   I'm feeding my kids.  



[02:05:48] Unknown:

No. But MBK, I don't disagree. Like, of course, Bitcoin's your enemies. And, like, I'm not,   I'm not gonna actively try and stop them from   acquiring Hash.   My hope is that right. My hope is my hope is that Hash gets distributed sufficiently, which it seems to be doing.   I just would push back on cheering the idea that it's bullish for Bitcoin   if they do  

[02:06:13] Unknown:

gobble the hash. No. So so I I think it is bullish for Bitcoin because,   see, their competitors   that being either other companies, other nation states, whatever reasons they are, right, they will see them,   accumulating Bitcoin, accumulating Hash Power, and you'll see that as a threat.   And they will try to counter that   with their own call let's call it their own Bitcoin,   power,   right, if that's hash rate or accumulation.   So so, like,   having an entity that is,   we don't know their intentions. It's impossible to know their intentions, but   their intentions seem to be just economic.  

Right? If there if there is an act referring to get rich on Bitcoin,   especially a publicly traded company that's a little bit more clear about   things, that's a good thing. That's a least worst entity   to start   becoming a a super   economic node.   Right? So I'd rather have them do it than say,   I don't know, MediaTek,   which is essentially a Chinese   chipmaker that is an arm of the of the Chinese state. Right?   So so so now maybe because,   MicroStrategy   is accumulating so much Bitcoin, their direct competitors might try to do it, or other indirect competitors that are large companies will try to do the same either against them or with them. So so it's,   it's the least of the worst,  

[02:07:43] Unknown:

examples, let's say. But do we not think that American corporation just sufficiently sized   can,   not be co opted by US government pressures?  

[02:07:55] Unknown:

Oh, they can all be co opted. They are all co opted every day. They all do KYC and AML.   So, like, they're all captured. Exactly. But but they   but they can only be coerced to a certain extent.   Right? Because if the coercion makes their bottom line go down, shareholders have a problem. If shareholders have a problem, the stock market tanks. Right?   So there is   a a a fine equilibrium,   right, of how much force the government can apply on its stock market. I mean, look what a z has been doing to the Chinese stock market. It's an absolute cluster fuck. He's destroying all the wealth that was created in China   because he's sort of freaking out on how to stay in power.  

And and it's not unheard of for for a Chinese   large emperor   to to do the same. It is in their history   to to shoot themselves in the foot over this kind of stuff.  

[02:08:52] Unknown:

You can almost view it like the independent like, if you look at, like, in the US, you've got, you know, these independent oil and gas producers, and this is just the lens that I view it through. They're small and midsized guys.   Many of them private, you know, money or just individuals, entrepreneurs,   and they can actually have a huge impact on the amount of production   of energy. And you've got kind of the super majors,   like, Exons and of the world and Chevron's and these big companies, BP. And, you know, what you'll see is you'll see these cycles where kinda you know, they'll go through periods where the super majors look like they control everything. And, you know, there is times when,   they they can have huge impact on, like, the price of the of oil and gas because of the their activities. But then you also look at the amount of red tape and bureaucracy and overhead that come involved with these large public companies, and it's almost like they're their own worst enemies in a lot of ways. And the small and independent guys can be more nimble and can do more than these bigger guys, and they're handicapped by these public markets, and they're handicapped by these rules and regulations. And so in a lot of ways,   there's some things that they do. The advocacy for the industry can be a positive. Other times, like, with this ESG movement, like, they're getting attacked. Like, Exxon's board got activist investors on it,   and they're losing value for their shareholders. And the big winners in that are gonna be the independents. They can play by their own rules, and they can work within the framework. So I don't know that it's necessarily I'm arguing that it's bullish, but I think it's again, like you were saying, it's probably gonna be natural, and you're gonna have different people that are different types of players. And I think it's probably just the inevitable evolution, it seems like, at least. But I see some parallels there maybe, through our industry.  



[02:10:25] Unknown:

Yeah. Absolutely. And to your point, Matt, I do think there are we just going out of the frying pan into the fire from China centralization risk to North American centralization risk? And probably not, but the fact is a large portion of the hash rate will be controlled by these publicly traded companies in the United States that are subject to the fiat cutbacks of the publicly traded markets, right? So I do say a bit of see a bit of a bifurcation of the network where you have a whole bunch of Hash rate controlled by public markets and then   at at the end of the day, I mean, the great thing is that is that the miners don't control the network. Right? It comes down to the individual nodes. And so as long as we keep those decentralized, I think we're good. Right?  



[02:11:16] Unknown:

Yeah. I mean, I I'm I'm kind of it's it's kind of a theoretical argument because I don't expect,   I don't expect large amounts of hash.   I I don't I don't expect, for instance I mean, if we're gonna talk theoretically, I don't expect, for instance, over 50% of hash to be,   held by   large American publicly traded companies.  

[02:11:39] Unknown:

I   I Matt, like, I just like to to always remind people when we're talking about 50%   and and and hashing,   like, it just it takes a lot more than 50%   to cause any problems to Bitcoin, and there is also coordination.   So it's just there might be, like, new people listening to this. Like,   you know, it's something like, you can never have the conversation of 51% attack   without ever, like, sort of mentioning that it takes a lot more than that and the level of coordination, and it's not sustainable either. Right?   So it it is honestly unconcerning. You can almost look at Bitcoin right now as over secured. Yeah. We have way more capacity than we need. Maybe our age is showing, but to me, the real fear was when Bitmain controlled so much.  



[02:12:27] Unknown:

And once we passed that, it was really a major turning point, and it's still not really priced in.  

[02:12:33] Unknown:

Yeah. Remember, like,   you know, it's in the interest of an actor that has overcapacity of mining to shut the fuck up about heavy overcapacity. Right? Probably anonymously mine,   differently with the overcapacity.   Because as soon as you hint   or posture that you have too much capacity, you undermine your own bags. So it's all built into the game theory of Bitcoin. We don't have to worry about this stuff. And,   honestly, 51% attack at this stage, at this   size, it is not something that concerns us anymore, not to the degree that, you know, back in the day, it could have killed us.   And even when Bitmain had all that capacity, it was still nonconcerning.  

If we go back even further, I can't remember the the the mining pool. This must have been 2013,   maybe,   2012, maybe.   There was a pool that amassed g hash. Oh, it was g hash. Right? That had that amassed over I think it was close to 60% of the money. They they kicked out people from their pool not to hurt their bad debt. Also double spent gambling  

[02:13:37] Unknown:

gambling services.  

[02:13:38] Unknown:

Yes. Yes.   Very different world, very different capacity, very different distribution of   Bitcoin.  

[02:13:46] Unknown:

100%. I mean, I think,   I mean, I think we've hit the the natural endpoint of of this this topic.   We've been going 2 hours and 15 minutes.  

[02:13:59] Unknown:

Evan Awesome conversation.  

[02:14:01] Unknown:

Yeah. Absolutely awesome conversation. Evan, you haven't spoken at all. Are you there? Do you have,   anything you'd like to say?  

[02:14:10] Unknown:

Hey. I chimed in a little bit.   No. I mean, unless you guys wanna keep running, we can hit a different topic.   You know, I've just been,   soaking in all the discussion from the minors and the game theory.   It's been, it's been quite a good rip.  

[02:14:28] Unknown:

Do you have a you have a good topic for us?  

[02:14:31] Unknown:

I'm sort of interested to hear people's,   you know, predictions for what's gonna   how things are gonna shake out in El Salvador.   They've got their launch of their new governmental wallet, Chivo, on September   7th.   And,   every citizen is receiving something like, what, $30 worth of Bitcoin?  

[02:14:57] Unknown:

Yeah. Moody's just today threatened to downgrade the   the sovereign debt if they decide to go forward with it, which they probably will.   I mean, what what can we say? I mean, it's it is what it is.   This is a $25,000,000,000   GDP country that's trying to roll out Bitcoin as a legal tender   within 3 months.   They have a wallet, which we have no idea how it operates that's gonna somehow   allow   totally,   fee less,   absolutely zero commission,   no spread,   settlement between,   dollars and Bitcoin inexplicably.   We have no idea how it's happening. It's just,   it's what can what can what can we say? It's apparently, it's gonna happen. Happen. We're we're all gonna be amazed and astounded as far as I can tell.  



[02:15:49] Unknown:

Well, my understanding is that the government, while it will not be ready,   on September 7th when it becomes legal tender, so we shall see how that plays out. I hope it's not too much of a clusterfuck. I know, a lot of private companies and,   open source projects are trying to bridge the divide so that that   Salvadorians are ready when that happens. But,   as far as I'm hearing,   from my sources,   the government wallet is way far behind, and   there's a lot of issues there.  

[02:16:22] Unknown:

So I would presume the biggest issue there is that that liquidity that's swapping over those dollars to sets,   and, you know, maintain being able to maintain those, banking relationships,   to facilitate that all.   You know, otherwise, I'd feel like, you know, the rest of the wallet shouldn't be so crazy. It's gonna be custodial lightning wallet. Right? The government, is gonna have their own   centralized node. Of course, it's probably gonna be subject to,   you know, all sorts of surveillance   and monitoring.   But, yeah, that that other part of the puzzle of the liquidity and and the swapping of those dollars seamlessly,   remains the biggest question mark to me. I I mean, I I feel like at one point, I heard that, Strike was gonna help,   with some of the conversion process, but,   beyond that, I I really don't know.  



[02:17:14] Unknown:

They are not.  

[02:17:16] Unknown:

Interesting. They're not.  

[02:17:21] Unknown:

It should be interesting to see how it plays out.   Regardless,   I I do have a lot of faith in in the big corners on the ground that are working to build out open source alternatives.   I mean, at the end of the day, it could be a   benefit,   if the government wallet is a bit of a clusterfuck because, ultimately,   the government wallet is not gonna be a sovereign wallet. It's not gonna be a privacy focused wallet. If anything, it's gonna be the exact opposite.   And the government has   a complete advantage when it comes to competition with open source alternatives and private alternatives,   because they can offer people free money, and they can offer transaction fees that are significantly less,   than a company that's trying to operate for a profit because their profit is that they have control of the populace.  

So if anything, it could end up being a positive development because people will get onboarded into a more, Yeah. Absolutely. That's a that's a great   point. I'm gonna  

[02:18:24] Unknown:

Yeah. Absolutely. That's a that's a great point. I'm particularly interested about how that   that bridge towards,   you know, sovereignty, as you're saying, gets made,   how people move over to wallets that aren't custodial,   move to, like, semi custodial wallets or,   you know, just wallets that depend   on planning service providers,   Something like, you know,   Breeze and and Moon and whatnot.   That's gonna be very interesting. I think efforts like, Square trying to make really cheap hardware wallets is gonna be interesting.   But, you know, ultimately,   I hope it doesn't come to scenarios where people   will learn the importance of sovereignty down there the hard way. I mean, most of these people   just need something that works, you know? Like, they're living in bad conditions.  

Many of them are experiencing poverty. They don't really care about   being sovereign per se.   But I but they those people can they could also suffer the most when, you know, one of these worst case scenarios   rolls out, like, you know, losing their funds. But  

[02:19:28] Unknown:

what do you mean? They might not they might not specifically relate to sovereignty, but they could relate to their account getting closed.   Yeah. But but this I I have one second. One second. I have a freak who reached out,   who said he was in El Salvador last week,   and he was working with the government team, and he expects the app to be uploaded to the App Store today. So take that as you will.  

[02:19:52] Unknown:

He just DM'd me. Wow. Inside the line. Thank you, Faruk.  

[02:20:00] Unknown:

So,   you know,   most people there have a not having money problem, not necessarily a sovereignty problem that comes later as they manage to store some wealth.   So so that's sort of like the first issue. Right? I mean, Bitcoin does help with that. It just takes a little bit longer. It's not just an app problem. Right?   You know, they will not have enough economical activity   to be able to justify   base layer fees either. Right? So these guys are not gonna have, like, enough,   yeah. I mean, their transactions would be just too small to be able to to transact in base layer.   You know, lightning does help with that a lot, and everybody has a, you know, a smartphone there. So so maybe that is the solution. But   I don't know. I'm a little skeptical,   especially with government being the entity pushing this stuff. Feels a little bit like maybe there is a Trojan horse in there.  

It is forced Bitcoin, which is also not great.   Yeah. I I I I'm more curious to see this happening when there is a a country with a little bit   economical, capacity   doing   than than this project.   Even though But it's I think it's great.   It's not really forced Bitcoin. It's forced government wallet. No. Not really, Matt. Like, if if the government is saying that the Bitcoin is   a means of exchange by fiat. Right? Bitcoin is fiat.  

[02:21:28] Unknown:

No. But they're saying but they're saying it says in the bill specifically   that you're only required to accept Bitcoin if you have the technical means to accept Bitcoin, and they're providing a government wallet that automatically converts it to US dollars theoretically at no fees. Yeah. Well They're really what they're doing is they're forcing uses of a government wallet, which which is we're gonna see become more common. So at least there is a connection to the open monitoring that's the Bitcoin attached to. Right? Because now they're forcing everybody to digitize their dollars and be  

[02:22:13] Unknown:

Great. It definitely works for that, and we'll see that grow. But the secondary   outcome is that in order to build this service, they are going to the central bank now have custody of the dollars. So when you send a dollar to someone rather than sending it to   the checking account of someone or to their actual hand in physical notes or in any other way that's keeping it out of the central bank's possession, the central bank now will have possession of that by way of the I think it's called a national commercial bank, Bandasol.   So they now have the dollars, and that's the problem is that this Bandasol bank will actually have the dollars, and no one actually has the dollars. They just have a a screen that's showing them that they have dollars, but they don't actually have them. The Bandisall Bank has it. And then what are they gonna do with those dollars? So that's the whole question. It's like Yeah. It's down. Privacy is lost  

[02:23:01] Unknown:

and and capacity of escaping from the government is all is lost as well. Right? I don't I don't disagree,  

[02:23:07] Unknown:

Aaron. The the it's the CBDCB   strategy.   It just also has Bitcoin involved.   That's right. Same exact strategy that we're gonna see play out with all digitization schemes and removing cash from the system. Yeah. But at least it has Bitcoin involved.   To me, it's not forced Bitcoin usage.  

[02:23:26] Unknown:

Yeah. I have a mixed reaction, you know, because I see the use case of lightning solving a real problem of the fees for these remences,   But then I also   see the ability for corruption with with where the dollars and what are they doing with the dollars.  

[02:23:46] Unknown:

Well, everything is good for a bit query. That's all that matters.  

[02:23:52] Unknown:

Well, I'm not gonna try and control your narrative.   This has been an absolutely fantastic conversation. I really enjoyed it. I think I'm gonna do this more often,   to keep,   the proper Citadel dispatch's higher signal.   So when I don't have a solid topics lined up,   and if I don't if I don't have solid topics and guests lined up, we'll just do a happy hour instead.   As I said earlier,   this will be uploaded to the CIL dispatch podcast feed.   You can just search CIL dispatch in your favorite podcast app. Ideally, that would be a podcasting 2.0 app because CITIL Dispatch does not have any ads or sponsors. So with the podcasting 2.0 app, you can stream sats over the Lightning Network directly to me to support the show.   You just download the app. You go to new podcast apps.com.  

You can find a podcasting 2.0 app. Search to dispatch, load it up with stats. It's that easy. It's easier than you'd expect.   Before we wrap it up, I figured we'll do some final thoughts,   from every speaker on the stage,   starting with Evan, then we'll go to MBK, then Aaron, then Max, then Sovereign.   Evan, final thoughts.  

[02:25:01] Unknown:

A lot of crazy stuff is happening in the world, guys, but,   I think we're winning.   Oh, and, look out for the new Zeus redesign alpha this week.  

[02:25:12] Unknown:

NVK.  

[02:25:13] Unknown:

Yeah. I think Evan sorta hit something here that, like, is at the core of what I think is that this is what winning looks like.   It's like this is the beginning of winning.   It's gonna be, like, a lot of stuff going on. It's gonna look confusing.   Fiat is collapsing.   It's not gonna be sort of clear cut.   And,   yeah, I mean, like, Bitcoin, we have, like, sensors argue about Bitcoin on TV.   We have, like Bitcoin is the forefront of everything now.   Yeah. And,   try SeedXor   so you don't get robbed. Thanks, MBK.  

[02:25:50] Unknown:

Aaron, final thoughts.  

[02:25:53] Unknown:

Be mindful   of this   developing   conflict between privacy   rights and the treasury.   I think it's going to continue to escalate.   It's a battle royale at the highest levels of government.   Assert your rights to conduct your own affairs   and to keep your own value in the privacy of your own home. It is nonnegotiable.   No one can take it away from us.   And if there's ever a need to infringe in our privacy, they need to explain why. We don't need to explain why we need to keep our right to privacy.  

[02:26:30] Unknown:

Thank you, Aaron. Max, final thoughts?  

[02:26:33] Unknown:

Yeah. Just first, thanks for having me up and just wanna every time I do anything,   related with Bitcoin, the community is always awesome, and I always gain followers, and it's great, the engagement. One thing I'll just say real quick is that for me and my industry, it's, you know, implications that the, you know, Bitcoin mining specifically that can have on our industry is disrupting, and it's extremely disruptive. And the more I think about it and peel back the onion, the more ways I look at everything I thought I knew about energy, and it's it's changing everything. And so and, you know, the more I think about Bitcoin, I think this is gonna happen to other industries as well. And so I believe that in the future, things that we haven't even thought about yet are gonna be things that change because of this stuff. And so I'm just excited to be,   along for the ride now and,   really enjoying engaging with the community. So thanks again, guys.  



[02:27:17] Unknown:

Cheers, Max. Thank you. Sovereign, final thoughts.  

[02:27:22] Unknown:

Like MBK is saying, things are crazy out there, but TikTok, next block. Bitcoin doesn't care,   keeps turning over, and everything is good for big Bitcoin. So in this 4th turning transition, boys, if you're looking to become self sovereign   at this intersection   between   monetary   purity   and the need for privacy,   highly consider   mining in your own home or putting up a decentralized distributed mining site on a stranded asset   where there is the possibility of Sats going directly to your private wallet.   So like Matt says, stay humble, stack Sats, and have a good one.  

[02:28:05] Unknown:

Thank you, Sovereign.   If you are interested in getting into Bitcoin mining at home, I would remind you that you could go to sail dispatch.com/cd31.   The 31th episode of cildispatch   was all focused on getting started with Bitcoin mining. I wanna thank all the speakers for joining us. I wanna thank the audience for joining us. I wanna thank all the freaks who support the show. And a reminder,   if I didn't screw something up,   the recording of this will be available on the sale of dispatch feed for you to go back and check it out later. Thanks, guys. Cheers.